Leicester v Chelsea, Liverpool v Arsenal and Manchester City v Everton are the games in focus in the English Premier League Round 12 preview including goals markets and goalscorer betting tips courtesy of @Olimp_SA
English Premier League Round 12
Leicester vs. Chelsea, Saturday 20 November 14:30
After 11 rounds of EPL football the Foxes are in 12th place on the table. It’s been a disappointing season so far for Leicester after many believed that they were serious contenders for a Top 4 spot at the beginning of the season. However, with a record of four wins, four losses and three draws their chances of qualifying for a spot in Europe next season now looks to be in jeopardy. In their last match before the international break they missed out on more valuable points when they drew 1-1 away to Leeds. This comes in addition to draws away to Crystal Palace and at home to Burnley – fixtures where they really should have picked up maximum points. After following up their win against Manchester United with a 2-1 win away to Brentford things were looking up for Brendan Rogers’ men, but two winless performances since has sent them back into a slump.
Defensively they have let in 18 goals this season which is the fourth worst defense in the league and they have not managed to keep a clean sheet since the opening day of the season against Wolves. It’s quite evident that they would be in a higher position on the table if their defense had been tighter and until they manage to sort out this issue they will struggle to get anywhere near the Top 5. Saturday’s fixture against Chelsea will see their defense being put under immense pressure again against the second highest scoring team in the league and it looks unlikely that we will see a Leicester recovery this week.
The Blues went into the international break with a 1-1 draw at home to Burnley. Tuchel’s men will undoubtedly be disappointed in missing out on the three points in this match, but they still find themselves at the top of the table with 26 points with nearly one third of the season gone. Two weeks ago against Burnley was the first time Chelsea conceded in four matches and it was only the fourth goal they have conceded this entire season. Up until recently their defense has been stellar and has set them apart from the rest of the league, while their attack is the second best with 27 goals. Chelsea have won the most matches in the league this season (8) and are now undefeated in their last five EPL matches. It is looking very likely that they will extend this to nine matches as they get ready to take on a struggling Leicester team with major issues on defense. Prior to their draw to Burnley the Blues managed a 3-0 win away to Newcastle, a 7-0 win at home to Norwich, a 1-0 win away to Brentford and a 3-1 win at home to Southampton.
It’s all square in the last five EPL matches between the two teams with each side winning one and the remaining three matches ending in a draw. The most recent clash between the two teams was in May this year at Stamford Bridge which saw Chelsea winning 2-1, while the last clash between the sides at the King Power saw Leicester come out on top with a 2-0 win. Three out of the last five clashes have seen both teams finding the net and Chelsea have only failed two score twice in seven EPL trips to Leicester.
Leicester did manage to pull of an amazing result at home against Manchester United just over a month ago, but somehow I don’t see that happening again against a side like Chelsea. Despite conceding against Burnley I still feel Chelsea have got all their ducks in order defensively and I don’t believe the Foxes have the power to score against them. Although their win at home against Manchester United gives the impression that they can pull off big results at the King Power Stadium, it’s important to remember that the Red Devils were going through a lot of problems and a big slump when that victory occurred.
The Blues may have had a slight slip-up against Burnley, but they are far from being in a slump and expect them to win this match comfortably. I am quite surprised that you can get 1.80 for a Chelsea win and I am more than happy to jump on this great price. I also don’t see the Foxes scoring in this one so I will back one team to score, while I also suspect that the floodgates might open later on in the match so I will stick a little bit on Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals. Goalscorers are always hard to pick for the Blues due to the huge variety in their attack but I am going to back Reece James to remain hot after his double against Newcastle and to score in this match.
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Liverpool vs. Arsenal, Saturday 20 November 19:30
Pressure has slowly been building on Liverpool’s defense over the last couple of months and finally the Reds were handed their first defeat of the season after a 3-2 loss away to West Ham. The Reds are now winless in their last two matches and as a result have slipped down to fourth place on the table with 22 points. With 31 goals they are still the highest scoring team in the league and on the surface their defense still looks respectable with just 11 goals let in this season. However, the problem is that seven of these 11 goals have come in their last five matches which suggests that something is not quite right with the defense. In previous EPL seasons teams have got off to a flying start to the season only to have their momentum taken away by their first defeat and then go on to have a poor remainder of the season.
Right now Liverpool are in danger of this happening to them and they need to bounce back right away or risk falling into a slump for the remainder of the season. Prior to their loss against West Ham they managed a 2-2 draw at home to Brighton, a 5-0 win away to Manchester United, a 5-0 win away to Watford and a 2-2 draw at home to Manchester City. Arsenal is probably not the team they would have liked to have faced after their first loss of the season, but if they can bounce back against an in-form team like the Gunners on Saturday it will go a long way towards getting their campaign right back on track.
After losing their first three matches of the season the Gunners are right back in the thick of things and back to being serious contenders for a spot in Europe next season. They have managed to climb all the way back up to fifth spot where they sit with 20 points. In their last match before the international break the picked up three points at the Emirates with a 1-0 win against Watford. They are now on a three match winning streak and are also undefeated in their last eight EPL matches. Arteta’s men have managed 13 goals so far season which is far from the best in the league, but the team is making huge strides and can no doubt up this number considerably if they continue the way they are. While the Gunners might still be working on perfecting their attack their defense has seen a major improvement and it’s been the main reason they’ve been able to find better results. After letting in nine goals in their first three matches of the season they have only let in four goals in the other eight matches, while also keeping five clean sheets. This is quite a turnaround and if they can keep their defense tight against a
Liverpool side that’s ratted after losing to West Ham we could be in for a very interesting clash on Saturday.
Liverpool have dominated the last five clashes between the two teams with four wins, while Arsenal have won just once. The last time these two sides met was in April at the Emirates where Liverpool won 3-0. The Reds have done an amazing job of defending their home fortress in the EPL against Arsenal and you will have to go all the way back to September 2012 to find the last time Arsenal managed a win at Anfield. Liverpool have also won their last five clashes at Anfield and 2016 was the last time the Gunners managed to avoid leaving Liverpool empty-handed.
Prediction
History is firmly on Liverpool’s side going into this clash, but I can’t help feeling that last week’s loss is going to have an impact on Klopp’s men. Right now Arsenal have got their tails up, while Liverpool are facing the prospect of going three matches without a win. Goalscoring is still a slight issue for Arsenal and until they get this fully sorted I cannot see them defeating top sides like Liverpool, but for me their defense has seen major improvement and with Liverpool’s ego being slightly bruised after their first defeat of the season I believe they might just be able to force a draw.
I am going to have a stab at Arsenal double chance and I am also expecting a tight low-scoring match so I will have a go at under 2.5 goals. I am also going to add in only one team to score along with under 2.5 goals in case the match finishes 1-0 or 2-0 in favour of Liverpool and for goalscorers I like the value on Emile Smith-Rowe to score since he has scored in all of Arsenal’s last three EPL matches.
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Double Chance: Arsenal or Draw – 2.68
Alternative Total Goals: Total 2.5 Under – 2.57
Both teams to score – no and total 2.5 under - 2.95
Anytime Goalscorer: Emile Smith-Rowe – 5.20
Manchester City vs. Everton, Sunday 21 November 16:00
After a disappointing 2-0 loss at home to Crystal Palace at the end of last month, the Sky Blues managed to bounce back with a 2-0 win in the Manchester Derby before the start of the international break. They now sit in second place on the table with 23 points and have a record comprising of 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. City have the second best defense in the league and have only let in six goals so far this season, but much like Liverpool there defense have been starting to show cracks recently. Five of these six goals came in their last five matches, but the Citizens managed to not make a habit of conceding regularly by picking up a clean sheet against Manchester United. It’s important for Pep’s men to keep the clean sheets coming in order for them to stay ahead of West Ham on the table and to give themselves a chance of passing Chelsea to take top spot. Their defense is unlikely to be under much threat on Sunday against an Everton side that is in horrific form right now and it should be a straight forward three points at the Etihad for the men from Manchester.
The Toffees did a good job of forcing a draw against Spurs in their last match before the international break but Benitez’s men would of much rather preferred a win and three points. Everton are now winless in their last five EPL matches and very disappointingly find themselves in the bottom half of the table in 11th place. Defense was a big problem for Everton going into their last clash so not conceding against Spurs was a definitive positive, but after finding the net in four out of their five matches leading up to the match I really expected them to keep the trend going but disappointingly failed to do so. It looks to me like they have managed to sort out their defense which was in shambles, only for problems to now shift to their attack. Sunday will be a real test for the men from Merseyside and if their defense can hold up against a team like Manchester City then it will be a clear sign that there has been an improvement in that department. As for their attack, their scoreless performance against Spurs last week doesn’t really help their cause for Saturday’s match and I believe they will have a difficult time cracking the second best defense in the league especially away from home.
Manchester City have completely dominated the last five matches between the two teams in the EPL and won all of them. The last time Everton managed to pick up a win against Manchester City in the EPL was in 2017, while their last win at the Etihad was just under 11 years ago. The last meeting between the two teams was at the Etihad in May where the Citizens won 5-0 with Phil Foden and Kevin de Bruyne both finding the net. Interestingly, Everton have managed to score in four out of their last five outings to the Etihad. However, with Manchester City’s current defensive form and Everton’s problems on attack I think it’s unlikely that they will be making it five out of six.
Prediction
After their goalless draw with Spurs I am not very confident about Everton having any chance in this match. Had they found the net in that match I may have looked for value in this match by backing them to score a goal especially with their record of scoring at the Etihad, but after that performance I am not confident that they can crack a defense like Manchester City’s.
It’s not easy to find a good bet when one team is expected to dominate over another as is the case here, but the most appealing bet for me over even money looks to be Manchester City to win by 2-3 goals. You can also get around 2.70 for only one team to score and over 2.5 goals in the match which I believe has a great chance of landing, while the only other bet that catches my eye is backing Phil Foden to score the first goal at around 4.80 since he is in fine form at the moment and finding the net on a regular basis.
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Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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