Couch Critic previews Saturday's Rugby World Cup Pool matches between Argentina and Tongo and Japan v Ireland with best bets from @Olimp_SA
Everyone is now out the starting gate and we should have a better idea of what to expect from everyone. Of course, we are not the only ones who’ve seen all the teams in action so it’s all about analysing performances, taking team selection into account and making calculated guesses as to what to expect from the coming games. Here are my guesstimates of what to expect from Saturday’s action.
Argentina vs Tonga, Saturday 28 September @ 06:45 (Higashiosaka)
What you need to know
Argentina staged a dramatic second half comeback but came up agonisingly short against France. Mario Ledesma isn’t taking any chances with this outing. Not only does he not want to see his side pull a Fiji but quite clearly the Argentine coach is looking to re-ignite his side’s World Cup campaign as he has made only four changes to his starting line-up – some will argue that most of those could strengthen rather than weaken his team. The most significant of the changes is the inclusion of Benjamin Urdapilleta ahead of Nicolas Sanchez at pivot.
Tonga were well beaten by England and failed to cross the tryline. Yet they certainly did not disgrace themselves in their first outing. The islanders have re-jigged their backline significantly but, significantly their pack remains intact barring a change at hooker.
How I see it panning out
Things could get quite spicy in this one as desperate South Americans meet the determined, physically imposing Polynesians. With the monstrous Ben Tameifuna in their ranks I don’t see the Argentines bullying the Tongans upfront. They get to sharpen their teeth in Super Rugby and the Rugby Championship against top opponents week in and week out so Argentina won’t be slipping on this banana peel but I do see Tonga keeping them honest, especially in the first half. I will also have my usual hooker interest.
Betolimp Best Bet: Tonga to stay within the handicap of 28.5 @ 1.88
Special Play 1: Argentina to lead by 1-8 at HT/Argentina to win by 13+ @ 5.50
Special Play2: First Tryscorer – Julian Montoya @ 14.50
Japan vs Ireland, Saturday 28 September @ 09:15 (Shizuoka)
What you need to know
Japan duly did what was expected of them by beating Russia in the opening game of the World Cup. They clearly suffered from a serious case of stage fright yet were able to do what was required in the end, securing the four-try bonus point. The Japs have made a few changes to their team, but this should merely prove to freshen them up rather than hamper. Crucially for the host nation the explosive Amanaki Mafi is back at 8 and raring to make his impact on the event.
Ireland emerged from Game Week 1 as one of the standout performers having dispatched of Scotland in no uncertain terms. Key backline cogs, Sexton and Aki, will miss this clash but their pack remains unchanged in what they clearly realise is not an outing to take lightly.
How I see it panning out
Japan should be better for their first game having gotten the worst of the jitters out the way. Yet they are up against a team who were clinical and ruthless last Sunday. Ireland have a gameplan as well as the personnel to dominate upfront before trying anything flash. I see the home team showing some good glimpses but not having the forward pack to keep the Irish in check at the end of it all. Things should open up a touch more in the second forty.
Betolimp Best Bet: Total of 1st half less than total of second half @ 1.82
Special Play 1: Ireland to lead by 1-8 at HT/Ireland to win by 13+ @ 6.60
Special Play 2: First Tryscorer – Rory Best @ 22.00
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change
Couch Critic
