Couch Critic previews the betting and provides a tip for each match in Round 17 of Super Rugby, brought to you courtesy of BetOlimp.co.za
My Friday plays on the Blues and the Rebels were a complete disaster (the Blues remain a side I just can’t get right!). My two biggest plays – on the Jaguares and the Brumbies - came in to heal the pain from Friday yet a shock loss from the Crusaders and to a lesser degree the Sharks showing left us bleeding badly. Fortunately the Lions game didn’t only stop the bleeding but had me back in the black as the Lions delivered on the half time margin and Dayimani’s 78th minute score ensured a 29/1 Betolimp special playpayout! The weeks are getting fewer and we need to finish the competition strong, so here goes for Week 17…
Highlanders vs Bulls (Friday @ 09:35)
Verdict: I will trust Aaron Smith, Liam Squire, Naholo and Rob Thompson to have enough to beat the Bulls playing their last game on tour.
Best Bet: Half time winning margin - Highlanders to lead by 1-7 points @ 3.19 with BETOLIMP
BETOLIMP Special Bet: HF/FT Margin - Highlanders 1-8/Highlanders over 12@ 8.00
Reds vs Blues (Friday @ 11:45)
Verdict: I’ve been burnt by this Blues team on too many occasion. I wouldn’t get involved in this one in a big way but for mind the value lies with a narrow Reds win.
BETOLIMP Special Bet: Reds to win by 1-12 points @ 3.80
BETOLIMP Special Bet: Anytime Tryscorer– MelaniNanai @ 2.70
Crusaders vs Rebels (Saturday @ 09:35)
If we are being honest with ourselves this Crusaders team has been a shadow of their former selves the past month or so. There’s been two draws against average SA opponents, the Stormers and Sharks as well as a shock loss to the Chiefs last week. Is this Saders side just not as good as we all want to think they are or have they just lost focus a touch? Whilst I am still undecided as to what to think of the Crusaders at present it has become crystal clear to me that this Rebels team is on a downward spiral.
Verdict: The Genie-Cooper combo isn’t starting and I will be opposing the visitors for this one. I have the Crusaders to come out roaring.
Best bet: Crusaders to beat the first half handicap of -9.5@ 1.75 with BETOLIMP
BETOLIMP Special Bet: Last Tryscorer -Brett Cameron @ 22.00
Waratahs vs Brumbies (Saturday @ 11:45)
The Waratahs surprised me somewhat last week but I remain a fan of the Brumbies set-piece and reckon they have a good chance of pulling off the win in Sydney and going well clear in the Aussie Conference. I will also have a little speculative play on Waratahs to lead narrowly at the break and Brumbies to eventually take a close win.
Best Bet: Brumbies to win the game @ 2.01 with BETOLIMP
BETOLIMP Special Bet: HF/FT Margin - Waratahs 1-8/Brumbies1-12 @ 14.70
Lions vs Hurricanes (Saturday @ 15:05)
Against the Sharks the game was still very much in the balance at the hour mark and the Canes will do well to know they can’t just put in one half of rugby against a resurgent Lions team. There is a bit of a re-shuffle in the Hurricanes team with Jordie Barrett movie into the centres. Savea will also be on the bench. The Lions looked to have finally found some of their attacking groove last week but a Kiwi opponent is a different challenge to a fellow South African outfit.
Verdict: The Lions have often relied on altitude to kick in along with their fast tempo game to pull a result out of the fire in the closing stages – with Coles and Ardie on the bench Plum will try and combat this. I will be hesitant in opposing the Lions with too big a stake but I reckon the visitors will come out of the sheds strong again this week and have the bench to stay clear.
Best Bet: Half Time/Full Time – Hurricanes/Hurricanes @ 2.00 with BETOLIMP
BETOLIMP Special Bet: First Tryscorer - Kwagga Smith @ 19.00 and Last Tryscorer – ArdieSavea @ 24.00
Stormers vs Sunwolves (Saturday @ 17:15)
They Stormers were an absolute no-show against the Lions last week and one has to hope they can turn things around in front of their home fans (as they often seem to do). The Sunwolves put up a decent fight against the Brumbies but since they are now away from Tokyo I expect them to revert back to their form of a few weeks ago and struggle bothering the scoreboard too much.
Verdict: Stormers to blow a disinterested Sunwolves team off the park – starting early.
Best Bet: Stormers to beat the half time handicap of -12.5 @ 1.82 with BETOLIMP
Jaguares vs Sharks (Saturday @ 21:40)
The bookies have finally instilled the Jaguares as solid favourites for a game. The Sharks have been up and down but despite performing solidly away from home they must know that for all practical purposes their race is run.
Verdict: The Jags only have to win one of their remaining two games to top the SA Conference and they should get the job done on Saturday already.
Best Bet: Jaguares to win by 8-14 points @ 3.65 with BETOLIMP
BETOLIMP Special Bet: Last Tryscorer - Julian Montoya @33.50
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change
Couch Critic
