Couch Critic provides his betting tips for the Japanese Grand Prix which takes place in Suzuka on Sunday 13th October
KONICHIWA SUZUKA
The Asian swing is in full-swing as we head to Japan seemingly at the same time as a nasty looking typhoon – things should be stormy at Suzuka this weekend (whether the rain arrives or not).
WHAT HAPPENED AT THE LAST RACE?
Ferrari looked to be on course for yet another sublime weekend as Leclerc was the fastest man around the Sochi circuit throughout the weekend whilst team mate Vettel wasn’t too far behind either. In a moment of (what they perceived to be) astute tactical clarity the masterminds in the Scuderia think-tank hatched an elaborate plan. Pole sitter, Leclerc was to hold his line off the grid and in so doing give his German team mate the slipstream advantage to pass Lewis Hamilton who started second. This tactic worked so well that Seb was in fact even able to fly past the man who was giving him the helping hand. Crucially young Charles was clearly given the assurance pre-race that if he pulled of the plan to perfection he need not worry as Vettel would be asked to give him back track position. This second part of the masterplan offered a few more snags than the first as the ruthless ex World Champion showed some teeth and didn’t obey team orders.
In the end Vettel had car troubles and Leclerc just didn’t quite have the race pace some might have expected. A fortuitous safety car (ironically caused by Vettel’s retirement) also gave Lewis the perfect opportunity for a cheap pit stop and he never looked back after this. All-in-all it was a dismal result for the Ferraris as they were left looking on as Merc claimed the one-two result on a weekend when they looked nailed on as the favourites. To make matters worse team chemistry must be at an all time low with their superstar youngster not feeling the love from their World Champion veteran.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN SUZUKA
Suzuka is another venue that Mercedes, and especially Hamilton, has dominated in recent times. The Silver Arrows have won the last five races in Japan (also starting from pole on all five these occasions) with Lewis taking four of those victories.
Apart from the battle between the Top 3 teams the mid-pack action is also heating up as the season starts to draw to its conclusion. McLaren have finally been able to put a gap into the likes of Renault, Toro Rosso and Racing Point. Lando Norris and Carlos Sainz have enjoyed good results of late but Renault bring a new front wing to Japan in a final push for a strong finish to the year.
At the sharper end of the field Red Bull will be hoping to find their chi at their engine manufacturer’s home race; the Scarlet Reds are sure to keep flying; and the W10 Mercedes has the confidence of victory, great recent track history as well as an improvement or two all wrapped into their weekend package. Oh, and just in case that is no enough drama and intrigue for you there is apparently also a serious typhoon heading the way of Japan…
VERDICT
Nico Hulkenberg’s F1 future is still uncertain after being replaced for 2020 at Renault. The German won’t be deterred by some rain, has decent enough form of late (a ninth and tenth finish) and also has an 8th and a sixth place at Suzuka in the not too distant past. I’m backing the Renault driver to battle himself into the top 6 on Sunday.
When you start emulating Schumacher records you know you have well and truly arrived in F1. Leclerc has his eyes set on a fifth straight pole position on the trot which will see him re-write the record books. Given the one-lap pace of Ferrari at present I won’t be backing against him achieving this feat.
Even when they weren’t winning races for a stretch of time the long-run pace of the Mercs continued to look the most impressive of the lot. With a little upgrade or two in-place for this weekend and the added confidence and class of Lewis Hamilton in wet conditions I can’t look past the Brit to take his sixth victory (and third in succession) in Japan.
BETOLIMP Bets for the Japanese Grand Prix:
To finish in the Top Six – N Hulkenberg @ 6.00
Fastest Qualifier – C Leclerc @ 2.55
To win the race – L Hamilton @ 2.62
Note, odds are subject to change
