A preview of Saturday's Rugby Championship clash between New Zealand and South Africa including best bets and tryscorer specials with @Olimp_SA
South Africa vs. New Zealand, Saturday 25 September 09:05
New Zealand
The All Blacks are back to their full strength side this Saturday for their 100th test against the Springboks. Last week we got an idea of how much depth there really is in the New Zealand camp when they managed to pull off a 36-13 win against Argentina despite resting the majority of their top players. They failed to cover the pre-match handicap this time around and it was not as convincing as their 39-0 victory the week before, but it was still enough to come away with maximum points.
The All Blacks are still undefeated in this year’s Rugby Championship and have just about guaranteed themselves another title. Even two losses against the Springboks would see them still finish on top and lift the trophy this year. After the Springboks’ back-to-back losses to Australia, the All Blacks have also now moved into back to number one spot in the IRB World Rankings.
Earlier in the competition New Zealand defeated Australia 57-22 and 38-21 in their two encounters, covering the handicap on both occasions comfortably.
South Africa
There was massive disappointment in South Africa last week after the Springboks went down 30-17 to Australia last week and suffered their worst defeat in a while. For the last three years the Boks have managed to at least keep things close when they lost, but last week was their first loss by a margin of more than 10 points since losing to England in 2018. In addition to that, it was also their first back-to-back loss in three years and one has to wonder what kind of problems there are in the camp at the moment.
Up until last week the Springbok defense managed to keep things tight and only conceded four tries in all of their matches in the Rugby Championship. However, in Brisbane major cracks appeared and some poor tackling resulted in them conceding four tries in one match. The Boks also had great difficulty breaking through the Australian defense and their only try came as a result of a clever grubber kick that was picked up by Lukhanyo Am, while Pollard added the rest of the points with the boot.
Prior to their losses to Australia, South Africa managed to defeat Argentina 32-12 and 29-10. However, due to their poor performances in the last two weeks they will need back-to-back bonus point victories against the All Blacks along with a massive points difference to sneak the trophy this year. I would say that is just about impossible.
Prediction
As much as I love the Springboks one just has to accept that certain things are not going to happen. One of those being them winning on Saturday. New Zealand may have pretty much wrapped up the Rugby Championship but we all know it’s going to be about a lot more than just the trophy. This is the 100th test between the two sides and they are most certainly not going to be taking their foot off of the gas for this clash.
The handicap has been set at 12.5 in favour of New Zealand and I feel that this is quite low considering the Boks’ performance last week. Historically, eight out of the last 12 clashes between the two sides have been decided by seven points or less and this could be the reason for the low handicap. I feel that this time around it’s not going to be a close one and the Springboks might just be in for an embarrassing hiding on Saturday.
I am happy to ship it on New Zealand -12.5 and I also like the half-time handicap of -5.5. It’s also worth considering the under total points since all but one of South Africa’s matches this year has finished below the total points line. However, I am a bit hesitant to take the under in case New Zealand run away with this match and I prefer South Africa under 17.5 points.
For tryscorers I am going to go with Patrick Tuipulotu who scored the opening try last week against Argentina. He finds himself on the bench this week and with three tries in his last six matches I am willing to have a crack at him coming on and scoring the last try of the match.
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