Couch Critic provides his betting tips for the fourth test match between South Africa and England which gets underway in Johannesburg on Friday 24th January
SOUTH AFRICA vs ENGLAND Johannesburg – Friday, 24 January
SETTING THE SCENE
After somewhat surprisingly starting the series with a win the Proteas find themselves traveling to Johannesburg trying to salvage a draw. The first test in Centurion feels like ages ago and all the dark clouds surrounding SA cricket prior to that first test has quite clearly not gone away by any means – if anything the storm that appears to be brewing looks more and more ominous by the day!
In PE the South African bowlers couldn’t find a way of making the ball talk on a flat St George’s track but when it came time to bat the batsmen failed themselves and their country dismally (yet again). On this occasion they had no game plan with regard to playing spin as first Dom Bess and then the “lethal” off-spin of Joe Root had the Proteas clueless and helpless.
LET’S TALK TACTICS
The Wanderers is known as arguably the test venue offering the most bounce in the world. Though we have seen some wickets fall to spin in the 4-day domestic competition held at this stadium in recent times the hometown quicky, Eldred Hawken has certainly enjoyed the facilities on offer helping himself to 15 wickets in his last two matches here. Almost exactly one year ago the Bullring was also its feisty self when the Pakistanis were in town yet the home team themselves struggled to master the conditions with the willow. The South Africans went into that match with a full pace attack and Duanne Olivier picked up eight wickets.
Given the success achieved by Bess in PE one doubts whether the visitors will be considering dispensing of their main spin option. Chris Wood looked fierce throughout and Broad remains the steady, experienced campaigner. If Jofra Archer is declared fully fit he might be included in place of Sam Curran. England will be buoyed by the recent form of their batsmen and no other changes are expected to their side.
South Africa will surely reinstate Temba Bavuma who is fresh off a big ton domestically. The only question is whether the Proteas will stick to their 6/5 batsmen to bowler split or whether Bavuma will be a straight swop for the suspended Rabada which would mean going into the final test with only four first choice bowling options. Should the selectors opt to replace Rabada with a bowler Bearan Hendricks will come into the team. It will be a debut test for the left-armer who also plays his domestic cricket at the Wanderers. Hendricks could also potentially either replace Patterson or Maharaj. If the additional bowling option is kept then Bavuma will in all likelihood take the place of Zubair Hamza. The last curveball that the selectors could throw into the mix would be the inclusion of Andile Phehlukwayo as all-rounder to try and find the right balance to the team.
HOW I SEE IT PLAYING OUT
A desperate side either comes fighting out of the corner they have been backed into or they just crumble under the pressure all together. One really does wonder how desperate/creative the selectors will get with this SA team as they look to try and save face. Unfortunately for the South Africans there are only questions hanging over the home team whilst the visitors appear to have found some youngster willing to take up the fight along side settled stars like Root and Stokes. A duo of Wood and Archer could also be a treat to watch if they get unleashed on the highveld. Especially in the absence of Rabada it might for once be the case that the Bullring holds more danger to the hosts than their opponents.
Look out for Wood to kick on from where he left off at St George’s and this time with a bit more to work with from the pitch. Ollie Pope will be brimming with confidence and some pace and bounce shouldn’t bother him too much. From the South African point of view all eyes will be on the return of the little warrior, Bavuma, whilst Nortje looks the biggest threat on the bowling front.
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Best Bets with BETOLIMP:
Top England 1st Inns Bat – O Pope @ 7.50
Top England 1st Inns Bowler – M Wood @ 4.33
Top SA 1st Inns Bowler – A Nortje @ 4.00
Man of the Match – M Wood @ 13.00
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change
Couch Critic
