Okay so it’s still not quite a mountain stage but there are double digit spikes at the very end and that means we can ready ourselves for the sprinters finally taking a back seat and watching the punchy type of riders have a go at getting a stage win.
Stage 7 is 185km in length. The first 130-odd km’s is rolling terrain until they hit Cat2 climb, Svolte di Popoli (just under 8km’s at 6% gradient). It might be almost 40 more kilometres to the finish line once the slope has been ascended but this is a proper incline and will put any sprinter off from thinking they have a shot at winning this stage. There might not be any further categorised climbs left but the last stretch of road promises to be vital in determining the victor, given the slopes riders will encounter.
With 10km’s to go the road rises at 5% for 3km’s and then the final km will offer further sparks, should we come down to a reduced bunch sprint for glory, as it averages a leg-burning 7.5 incline (reaching over 10% for a small period). This will certainly not be the same high-speed finishes that we’ve seen earlier in the week.
Type of contender: Puncheurs. These types of riders don’t quite have the top-end speed of the out and out sprinters but are also not mountain goats who can deliver strong climbing for extended periods. Rather they excel on a burst of pace up short, sharp inclines in the road. Of course, should the winner come from a long distance breakaway then the potential winner need not necessarily be quite the punchiest of all – he just needs to be either that bit faster or slightly stronger than his fellow breakaway members.
This edition of the Giro doesn’t have the big name puncheurs like Sagan, Alaphilppe and Michael Matthews yet there are still some capable candidates for the stage.The likes of Vuillermoz, Brambilla and Ulissi on their prime are the types who are very capable up short, sharp slopes whilst Bakelandts, Polanc, Gallopin, Kangert and Thomas de Gendt are typical candidates for getting in the long distancebreaks on days and roads like these. If the race is kept together then Conti and Battaglin are riders who could scamper away in the final kick up to the finish line. Of course, the two favourites for the overall (Roglic and Yates) are themselves some of the fastest men up a piece of tarmac which isn’t exactly flat.
Verdict: Team UAE with their brand new Italian race leader will be keen to do the Maglia Rosa proud. They also have a very real candidate for the race win from a reduced bunch sprint so they should put up a good chase. They will of course need some help. Given the strange look to the overall standings it is doubtful that the big boys will let a big break get too much time on this one and I’m expecting things to be kept together at least until the final 10km’s.
BETOLIMP Best Bets for Giro d’Italia Stage 7:
Enrico Battaglin @ 19.00 – Not in the same form he was last year but this parcourse should suit him like a glove. Being far off the pace in the overall means he could be in the day’s break or make a late move without anyone worrying too much about having him further up the road. Itlay is rejoicing at present and Enrico will be keen on giving his nation an encore.
Tony Gallopin @ 47.00 – At the height of his powers this would have been right up Frenchman’s ally. I still think he has what it takes to compete for this stage. Watch out for a late stinging move from the AG2R rider.
Tao Geoghegan Hart @ 58.00 – The once mighty Team Sky have been relegated to mere on-lookers since being renamed. TGH should like this layout and he could do the late bolt for glory at a decent price.
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change
Couch Critic
