Olimp3kSignUp jan19What is Value Betting? In sports betting, from time to time you hear experience punters refer to value, for example: “I think Southampton is value this weekend against a Liverpool team coming from the Super Cup Final in Istanbul” But what are they referring to exactly? Value betting is the ability to identify an edge against a bookmaker.

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT DOES A VALUE BET MEAN?

Value is a phrase normally used in the financial market and has the exact same meaning in sports betting. If a market is priced for less than it’s worth, then it offers value. Successful bettors identify value bets and bet on them regardless of how likely or unlikely it is to happen. The key to long-term successful betting is understanding the likelihood of an outcome accurately and then identifying where the market is incorrect.

 

HOW TO IDENTIFY VALUE BETS:

The coin toss example is the easiest way to understand what value is: When tossing a coin, there are two possible outcomes, either heads or tails. The probability of the coin landing on either side is 50%. Then, using the probability to calculate the odds: 100/50 = 2.

 

Example:

Sportsbook A: 1.9 – heads

Sportsbook B: 2.1 – heads

Calculate value = (Probability x decimal odds) – 100%

Sportsbook A: (50% x 1.9) – 100% = -5%

Sportsbook B: (50% x 2.1) – 100% = 5%

Sportsbook A is giving us 5% less than the true value and Sportsbook B 5% more.

Punters will take the 2.10 at every occasion because it presents tremendous value.

 

THE SPORTSBOOK:

No sportsbook will intentionally offer you value like the coin toss example, otherwise they won’t be around for long. Normally sportsbooks will offer around 1.9 odds on a coin toss or for example the asian handicap or goal line. Bookmakers will take action on both sides, for example: 10 R100 bets on tails and 10 R100 bets on heads. If the coin falls on heads, they will pay out R1900 to customers and make R100 profit from the market: this is referred to as a commission by sportsbooks and juice by punters. Sportsbooks pride themselves on setting accurate odds to create a profit margin for themselves. However, sports has variables that can impact a result and that’s where you find the edge.

 

THE ESSENTIAL FACTORS FOR VALUE BETTING:

- Determine your own odds. Use your own odds and compare them to the sportsbooks to identify value.

- Numbers and probabilities rather than favourites and underdogs. Determine the chances of the team rather than who will win.

- Calculate and evaluate. Don’t trust your gut when it comes to betting, try creating your own formula, for example a maths-based model.

- Specialise. Try focusing on 1 sport or a certain market in the sport.

- Effort. If you don’t commit to doing the work, you won’t make money – simple as that.

*You guys can always send me a DM @ZAPunter on twitter with questions about the topic or where to find resources.


FIND YOUR VALUE BETS AT WWW.BETOLIMP.CO.ZA!