Shinnecock Hills in Long Island, New York is the venue for this week’s US Open, the 2nd major of the year and usually a very tough test of golf. We take a look at the tournament from a betting angle.
Dustin Johnson tops the betting boards after a convincing 6 shot victory at the St. Jude Classic last week. The 2016 Champion has all the attributes to contend here this week and at the time of writing he is priced at 9/1, the only player in single figures. As you would expect from an event of this nature there is plenty of quality packed behind him in the betting and a look at recent US Open winners suggest we probably don’t have to look too far down the betting boards for our winner.
At this point it is worth noting that World Sports Betting are offering a 25% or quarter-odds return on a player’s win price for a top 6 finish this week. This is excellent value especially given how certain players perform consistently well in this event.
Shinnecock Hills has not been used for the US Open since 2004 when South African, Retief Goosenwon and the par 70 layout is certainly a true test of golf with Goosen’s winning score of -4 the lowest total in the 4 times that this course has hosted in this event.
Recent US Opens have tended to favour long hitters and while accuracy is important controlled length off the tee will certainly be a factor. The fairways have widened since 2004 but the rough has been thickened and so really wayward tee shots will be punished. The Greens are small and other important stats this week will be finding them in regulation as well as scrambling which is always important at US Open venues.
Past Winners (at different courses)
2017 –Brooks Koepka -16
2016 – Dustin Johnson -4
2015 - Jordan Spieth -5
2014 –Martin Kaymer -9
2013 –Justin Rose +1
Dustin Johnson 9/1
Rory Mcilroy 15/1
Justin Thomas 16/1
Justin Rose 16/1
Jason Day 18/1
Tiger Woods 20/1
Rickie Fowler 20/1
25/1 and better the balance, prices correct at the time of posting but subject to change
Dustin Johnson each way at 9/1
Not the most original pick but Johnson was in excellent form last week and he is probably playing as well now as before last year’s US masters when he injured himself. He is a proven performer on US Open layouts and he is certainly more than just a big bomber off the tee. For those interested in the more conservative approach, the 9/4 that he finishes in the top 6 looks cracking value.
Branden Grace each way at 35/1
The South African has been knocking on the door for some time now and if he is to win a major it will be at a course like this which is described as “links style” something he is proven on. He has been one of the most consistent performers in the majors in recent years and he comes into this event in good form with a couple of top 5 finishes in his last 3 starts. There is every chance that wind will be a factor this week and that will suit Grace down to the ground.
Charl Schwartzel each way at 80/1
It has been sometime since South Africa had a major winner and even longer since Schwartzel won the Masters back in 2011. After a couple of relatively quiet years, Schwartzel has started showing up at the front of leader boards again and he has proven that he can handle US Open conditions with a couple of top 10’s over the years. I am more than likely going to split my stake a little bit differently here with just a small interest on Schwartzel to win and a little bit more the 20/1* on offer that he finishes in the top 6.
Tony Finau each way at 90/1
I did mention that this tournament normally goes to a favoured player but given I am on the favourite in Dustin Johnson I feel obligated to throw in some longer priced prospects and Tony Finau fits the bill at close to a 100/1. He is plenty long off the tee but is not that wild and if he can keep it in the short stuff he could be a contender this week as he has been in good form including a 10th place finish at the Masters where he injured himself in the par 3 competition. He is the sort of player who does not win as often as you might expect but as far as outsiders go this week he is the type of player I want on side.
*World Sports Betting are offering 1/4 winodds for a top 6 place
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