One thing I have always loved about rugby betting is that it is possible to get the edge over the bookmakers if you really do your homework. Things like weather and team selections play a far bigger role than they do in most sports and it is the reason why over the years 90% of my sports bets are rugby related.
My strength is reading the market so for example when the bookmakers price up at a specific handicap, I have priced my own line and most times the handicap will move in my direction. This is well and good but I have a record of finding some incredible value, yet not collecting because as good as the bet seemed on paper, the team just didn’t deliver on the day.
This past weekend was a case in point and I sent out my newsletter Best Bet highlighting Crusaders (-26.5) points against the Rebels. I pointed out that if the Highlanders secured the bonus point against the Brumbies, the Crusaders would have to chase the bonus point win as well as points difference and there was also an incentive for them to put some pressure on the Blues who were topping the log.
There was no guarantee that the Highlanders would do the business against the Brumbies, but if they did this line was sure to move and I priced the game at (-33.5). The Highlanders turned in an excellent performance and during the second-half I told the followers of the Goodforthegame Forum that this line was going to move. I took more stock of the -26.5 and others did likewise.
Within an hour of the Highlanders match finishing the handicap had ballooned out to 39 points at most bookmakers. I was now sitting in a powerful position and confident of success and when the Crusaders ran in two early tries to lead 14-0 after 7 minutes I was mentally banking big profits.
Then the mistakes starting creeping in and the Rebels, a team that had battled to score tries all season somehow managed 26 points. Still with 5 minutes to go the Crusaders led by 26 and looked like delivering but a brain-dead double movement led to a disallowed try and a huge knock to my bank balance.
Finding the value is only part of the job, the team still has to deliver!
This article was written for the CitiGaming supplement of the Citizen Newspaper and was published on the 17 June 2021.