The first of the European Championship semi finals sees Italy clash with Spain at Wembley on Tuesday and the Italians start as slight favourites.
Italy
Italy knocked Belgium out of the quarter finals with a 2-1 win in Munich. Barella and Isigne had them 2—0 up before Belgium scored from the penalty spot on the stroke of half time. The second half was hectic but there was no further scoring and the Italian's march on.
Italy were paired with Austria in their Round of 16 clash, they were short price favourites at around 11/20 to win the game in 90 minutes but they needed extra time to get the job done. There were no goals in the 90 minutes although Italy hit the woodwork and Austria also had their chances. Substitutes Chielsa and Pessina scored for Italy in the first extra period and Austria pulled one back with 6 minutes remaining, ending a run of 11 successive Italian clean sheets but Mancini's side had done enough to go through 2-1.
Italy topped Group A with a 100% record, playing all their matches in Rome. They beat Turkey 3-0 first up and further wins followed over Switzerland (also 3-0) and then Wales (1-0).
In the outright betting to win this tournament Italy are currently trading at around 22/10, second favourites behind England who are 15/10
Spain
Spain made really hard work of their quarter final clash with Switzerland, eventually going through on penalty kicks. An early own goal had Spain in front but they were unable to build on that advantage and the Swiss levelled things up midway through the second half. Spain had a man advantage from the 77th minute onwards but the remainder of the game and extra time failed to deliver a goal. Spain had missed 2 penalties in the group stage and they also missed with their first attempt in the shoot out but nerves got the better of the Swiss who missed 3 in a row.
Spain were involved in a thrilling quarter final against Croatia in Copenhagen, coming through 5-3 in extra time. Spain were behind after a bizarre own goal before Sarabia squared things up at half time. Second half goals from Azpilicueta and Torres had Spain 3-1 up but Croatia scored twice in the final 5 minutes to force extra time. Spain regained their composure and further goals from Morata and Oyarzabal finally saw Croatia off.
Spain made it through Group E as runners up to Sweden and after drawing their first two matches with the Swedes (0-0) and then Poland (1-1) they thrashed Slovakia 5-0 in their final group match, all of which were staged in Seville.
In the outright betting to win the tournament Spain can be backed at around 5/2.
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Recent Head to Head
The teams met in World Cup 2018 qualifying, they drew 1-1 in Italy in October 2016 and in September 2017 Spain won the return 3-0 on home turf.
In the Euro 2016 finals Italy beat Spain 2-0 in the Round of 16 but they were knocked out by Germany (2-1) in the quarter finals.
The Betting
90 minutes: Italy are trading at around 31/20 to win the game in regulation time with the draw at 22/10 and Spain can be backed at around 21/10
A game of 3 goals or more is priced at 14/10 and it's 9/10 for both teams to score.
To qualify for the final under any means of victory Italy are priced at around 8/10 and Spain are 23/20
Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
The Verdict:
Spain thrashed a weak Slovakia side in the group stage and at times were excellent against Croatia but on form so far Italy deserve to be favourites.
However it's a game of such high stakes and I see this being evenly matched. It would be no surprise to me if this goes into extra time and I will nibble at 1-1 in the correct score market. If it does go beyond 90 minutes my gut feel is there will be a goal.
Bets: 90 minute draw at 22/10
90 minute Correct score 1-1 at 9/2
Will there be a goal in extra time? (yes) at 7/2
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Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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