ItalyEuroItaly and Wales clash in European Championship Group A in Rome on Sunday and top spot in the group is at stake.

 

 

 

 

Italy

 

Italy control this group with the maximum of 6 points and they are already assured of a place in the last 16 but they need to avoid defeat against Wales to clinch top spot.

 

Italy have made full use of the advantage of playing all their group matches in Rome. They started with a comfortable 3-0 win over Turkey and then dished out the same treatment to Switzerland with another 3-0 victory. Locatelli helped himself to a brace against Switzerland whilst Immobile has scored in both their matches so far.

 

Italy came through their qualifying group with a perfect record, World Cup 2022 qualifying and friendly matches before this tournament have also gone to plan and all in all they have reeled off 10 straight wins across all competitions and they have kept a clean sheet each time.

 

In the outright betting to win this tournament Italy are currently trading at around 6/1.

 

Wales

 

Wales have 4 points, quite possibly already enough to go through as a third place finisher whilst a draw would see them finish as runners up and a win over Italy would mean they top the group.

 

In their second group match Wales were 2-0 winners over Turkey with goals towards the end of each half from Ramsey and Roberts and Gareth Bale also missed a penalty.

 

Wales began their campaign against Switzerland in Baku where they fought back to take a point from a 1-1 draw. Switzerland had the better of the chances and took the lead just after half time but a goal from Kieffer Moore on 74 minutes squared things up and thereafter Wales dug in and held on for the draw.

 

In the outright betting to win this tournament Wales are currently can be backed at around 80/1

 

 

The Betting

 

Italy are trading at around 5/10 to win the game with the draw at 31/10 and Wales can be backed at around 63/10

 

A game of 3 goals or more is priced at 23/20 and it's 14/10 for both teams to score.

 

Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

 

The Verdict:

 

Italy have been the big movers in the outright betting to win the tournament and although they are already sure of a last 16 place, topping the group should, in theory, offer a more favourable opponent.

 

Barring disaster and an unlikely sequence of results Wales will be in the last 16 even if they lose here. They will also have one eye on who they might come up against next and if they were to slip to third place they might pull one of the big guns.

 

This could be well wide of the mark but I'm going to take a speculative play on no goals in the second half in the hope that the game will drift to a tame conclusion with resources preserved for the knockout rounds.

 

Bets: Second half total goals under 0.5 at 2.44/1

 

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Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

 

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