The European Championship knock out rounds get under way on Saturday and first up Wales clash with Denmark in Amsterdam.
Wales
Four points proved to be enough for Wales to progress to the last 16 as runners up to Italy in Group A. The Italians topped that group with a 100% record whilst Wales edged second place on goal difference from Switzerland and Turkey were the also rans, losing all their matches.
Wales started with a 1-1 draw with Switzerland with Kieffer Moore equalizing on 74 minutes after the Swiss opened the scoring early in the second half. Next time out goals towards the end of each half from Ramsey and Roberts gave them a 2-0 win over Turkey and Gareth Bale also missed a penalty. By the time Wales faced with Italy in their final group match in Rome they were pretty sure of a place in the last 16 as a best third placed finisher at the very least. Despite losing that game 1-0 and having Ampadu sent off, it turned out Wales had done enough to qualify automatically.
In the outright betting to win this tournament Wales can be backed at around 80/1.
Denmark
Denmark also finished as runners up in Group B which was topped by Belgium by some distance. It was a close call for the Danes who edged second place on goal difference after finishing up with 3 points alongside Finland and Russia.
Denmark had the advantage of playing all their group matches in Copenhagen. They lost 1-0 to Finland in the game marred by the collapse of Christian Eriksen and in their second outing they took an early lead against Belgium ( Yussuf Poulsen) only to lose the game 2-1.
Denmark needed to win their final group match against Russia to have any chance of a prolonged stay in the tournament and they made no mistake with goals from Damsgaard, Poulsen, Christensen and Maehle in a 4-1 win.
In the outright betting to win this tournament Denmark can be backed at around 22/1
Recent Head to Head
The most recent head to heads came in the Nations League in 2018 and Denmark won their home game 2-0 and followed up with a 2-1 win in Wales.
The Betting
90 minutes: Wales are trading at around 39/10 to win the game in regulation time with the draw at 2.15/1 and Denmark can be backed at around 17/20
A game of 3 goals or more is priced at 1.55/1 and it's 1.28/1 for both teams to score.
To qualify for the next round under any means of victory Wales are priced at around 2/1 and Denmark 0.42/1.
Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
The Verdict:
Denmark are the classier side in my book but Wales have staying power and this might be harder work than the match result betting suggests.
I'm hoping there will be many more last 16 matches where a betting opportunity stands out as I'm struggling to find anything that really appeals.
Both these sides have just 1 clean sheet between them from the group stage matches but I fancy Denmark to edge it. I don't expect a deluge of goals so I'm thinking Denmark 1-0 or 2-1 and I'll go level stakes on both those 90 minute correct score outcomes.
Bets (90 mins): Correct score Denmark win 1-0 at 38/10
Correct score Denmark win 2-1 at 74/10
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Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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