Australia host Argentina in Round 4 of the Rugby Championship in Robina on Saturday, the Wallabies are looking to build on their victory over the Springboks last week but Los Pumas have been showing huge improvement of late.
Australia v Argentina, Saturday 15th September, Robina, Gold Coast, KO 12:00 (South African time)
Weather Forecast: - Robina Gold Coast
Referee – John Lacey (Ireland)
Assistants – Glen Jackson (New Zealand), Paul Williams (New Zealand)
TMO – Glenn Newman (New Zealand)
Australia secured their first points of the tournament with a 23-18 win over South Africa in Brisbane in Round 3. Despite losing the services of Folau, Pocock and Coleman from the starting line up originally named the Wallabies fought back from 15-7 down just before the half hour, reducing the deficit to 18-17 by half time and they completed the comeback in the second half.
The Wallabies started with back to back defeats to New Zealand, 38-13 in Sydney and 40-12 in Auckland. They came up short of the pre-match handicap in both those matches but last week’s victory has elevated them to favourites status in the outright market “without New Zealand” where they are trading at around 17/20.
Australia have won 15 of the last 16 head to heads with Los Pumas and the only evidence of an Argentinean victory on Australia soil that I could find came way back in 1983.
The Wallabies come into the game at the bottom of the standings, on 4 points the same number as their opponents here but they have an inferior points difference. However, with the Springboks (who have 6 points) facing a daunting visit to Wellington earlier in the day, victory in this game could see Australia rise to second spot.
Fixtures: Sep 29th South Africa (Port Elizabeth), Oct 7th Argentina (Salta)
Matchday Rugby Betting Show
Catch the Matchday show live from 08:30 (South African local time) on Saturday 15th September with a recording of the full show available immediately afterwards.
Argentina were beaten 46-24 by the All Blacks in Nelson last week but they put in a very decent shift, confirming the improvement they had shown in Round 2 when they turned the Springboks over in Mendoza (32-19). They did stay within the plus handicap in Nelson and early in the second half they were just 4 points in arrears to the World Champions but their hopes of a major surprise faded thereafter.
Argentina have won just 1 of 20 away fixtures since the Rugby Championship was formed, that came in South Africa in 2015. They have lost all 6 of their away fixtures (note 1 was staged in London) against Australia in this tournament by an average margin of 10 points (30-20).
Argentina have finished with the wooden spoon in 5 of the 6 editions of this tournament and after the Round 3 results they are now trading at around 15/2 in the outright “without New Zealand” market.
Future Fixtures: Sep 30th New Zealand (Buenos Aires), Oct 7th Australia (Salta)
Australia: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Israel Folau, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Matt Toomua, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Will Genia, 8 Pete Samu, 7 David Pocock (captain), 6 Lukhan Tui, 5 Izack Rodda, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Scott Sio
Substitutes: 16 Folau Faingaa, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Adam Coleman, 20 Ned Hanigan, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Bernard Foley, 23 Jack Maddocks
Argentina: 15 Emiliano Boffelli, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Javier Ortega Desio, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Agustin Creevy (captain), 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro
Substitutes: 16 Julian Montoya, 17 Santiago Garcia Botta, 18 Juan Pablo Zeiss, 19 Matias Alemanno, 20 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 21 Martin Landajo, 22 Bautista Ezcurra, 23 Juan Cruz Mallia
Recent Head to Heads, (any venue)
2017 Mendoza Argentina 20-37 Australia (Tries 2-5)
2017 Canberra Australia 45–20 Argentina (Tries 6-2 )
2016 Twickenham Argentina 21–33 Australia (Tries 2-4 )
2016 Perth Australia 36–20 Argentina (Tries 5-2 )
2015 Twickenham Australia 29-15 Argentina (Tries 4-0) (RWC semi final)
2015 Mendoza Argentina 9-34 Australia (Tries 0-4)
2014 Mendoza Argentina 21–17 Australia (Tries 2-2 )
2014 Gold Coast Australia 32–25 Argentina (Tries 3-3 )
2013 Rosario Argentina 17–54 Australia (Tries 2-7 )
2013 Perth Australia 14–13 Argentina (Tries 1-1 )
2012 Rosario Argentina 19–25 Australia (Tries 1-1 )
2012 Gold Coast Australia 23–19 Argentina (Tries 2-2 )
Australia -9.5 points at 9/10 WSB
Argentina +10.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Note, odds quoted are a reflection of what was available at the time of the last update but are subject to change.
Given the way they played I doubt Argentina’s confidence levels will have been dented by last weeks defeat to the All Blacks whilst the Wallabies should also take more positives than negatives with their win over the Boks given they were without some key players.
For me the handicap looks tough to call but gut feel is for a home win and the 1-12 point margin makes most appeal.
Bet: 3 units Australia win by under 12.5 points 37/20 Sunbet
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