Round 4 of the Rugby Championship sees South Africa head to Wellington for Saturday’s clash with New Zealand and the Boks have given more than 20 points start on the handicap.
New Zealand v South Africa, Saturday 15th September, Wellington, KO 09:35 (South African time)
Weather Forecast: - Wellington
Referee – Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistants – Pascal Gauzere (France), Nic Berry (Australia)
TMO – Rowan Kitt (England)
The All Blacks made it 3 wins from 3 to remain well and truly on course to retain the Rugby Championship title when they overcame a spirited effort from Argentina with a 46-24 victory in Nelson last week. They scored 6 tries (and conceded 3) to see off Los Pumas but fell just short of the pre-match handicap which had been set at around 27.5 points.
In the earlier rounds New Zealand were 40-12 winners over the Wallabies in Auckland in Round 2 and they beat the same opponent 38-13 in Sydney in Round 1, covering minus handicaps in both those matches.
New Zealand now take aim at the Boks who they thrashed 57-0 in Albany in this tournament 12 months ago although South Africa gave them a mighty scare in the return in Cape Town which NZ edged by a single point.
At the halfway stage of the tournament the All Blacks have a full house of 15 log points, 9 clear of South Africa and they are now trading at around 1/100 to retain their Rugby Championship title and 1 / 6 to win all 6 of their matches.
Fixtures: Sep 30th Argentina (Buenos Aires), Oct 6th South Africa (Pretoria)
Matchday Rugby Betting Show
Catch the Matchday show live from 08:30 (South African local time) on Saturday 15th September with a recording of the full show available immediately afterwards.
The Boks lost 23-18 to Australia in Brisbane in Round 3, another disappointing result and especially in the circumstances of the Wallabies losing 3 of their best players through injury and personal reasons in the run up to match day. South Africa led 15-7 at one stage and went into the break 18-17 in front but a scoreless second half saw them go down to a second defeat in the tournament.
South Africa put in a shocking display against Argentina in Mendoza in Round 2 where they lost 32-19. They did beat Los Pumas 34-21 in Durban in Round 1, their only win of the tournament so far.
You have to go back to 2009 for the last Boks victory over the All Blacks on New Zealand soil when they edged a thriller in Hamilton 32-29. Since then the closest they have come to upsetting the All Blacks on their own turf came in Wellington in 2014 when the All Blacks edged it 14-10.
Despite successive defeats the Boks remain in second spot in the standings, 2 points clear of Argentina and Australia and they can be backed at 13/10 in the outright market “without New Zealand” with the Wallabies trading as favourites at around 17/20.
Fixtures: Sep 29th Australia (Port Elizabeth), Oct 6th New Zealand (Pretoria)
New Zealand: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Karl Tu'inukuafe
Substitutes: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Tim Perry, 18 Ofa Tu'ungafasi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Ardie Savea, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Jack Goodhue, 23 Damian McKenzie
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Jesse Kriel 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff
Substitutes: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Beast Mtawarira, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Francois Louw, 21 Ross Cronjé, 22 Elton Jantjies, 23 Cheslin Kolbe
Recent Head to Heads, (any venue)
2017 Cape Town South Africa 24–25 New Zealand (Tries 3-3 )
2017 Albany New Zealand 57-0 South Africa (Tries 8-0)
2016 Durban South Africa 15–57 New Zealand (Tries 0-9 )
2016 Christchurch New Zealand 41-13 South Africa (Tries 6-1 )
2015 Twickenham New Zealand 20-18 South Africa (Tries 2-0 ) (RWC semi final)
2015 Johannesburg South Africa 20–27 New Zealand (Tries 2-3 )
2014 Johannesburg South Africa 27–25 New Zealand (Tries 3-2 )
2014 Wellington New Zealand 14-10 South Africa (Tries 1-1 )
2013 Johannesburg South Africa 27–38 New Zealand (Tries 4-5 )
2013 Auckland New Zealand 29-15 South Africa (Tries 4-2 )
New Zealand -22.5 points widely available
South Africa +23.5 points Sunbet, GBets
Note, odds quoted are a reflection of what was available at the time of the last update but are subject to change.
The Boks are up against it here and I can’t see them keeping the All Blacks in range over 80 minutes. The handicap is a big number but whilst I don’t see a repeat of the drubbing handed out in Albany 12 months ago, the minus does get my vote.
Bet: 4 units (1 to 10 scale) New Zealand -22.5 points widely available
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