The Reds take on the Rebels in Round 18 of Super Rugby in Brisbane on Friday and despite losing a key Australian Conference derby last week the visitors are still in the hunt for a play off place.
Reds v Rebels, Friday 6th July, Brisbane, KO 11:45 (South African time)
Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant Refs: Nic Berry, Graham Cooper
TMO : Ian Smith
The Reds returned from the international break with a 39-16 loss to the Blues in Auckland last weekend, a fifth consecutive defeat. Their overall record this season comprises of 4 wins and 10 defeats and they have found it tough going after winning 3 of their first 4.
The Reds have won 3 of 6 home games with the Brumbies, Bulls and Lions all losing narrowly in Brisbane whilst their most recent home fixture ended in a 52-41 defeat to the Waratahs in Round 16, a game of 15 tries of which the Queenslanders scored 7.
The Reds remain fourth best in the Australian Conference, 10 points behind the third placed Brumbies and now just 5 ahead of the Sunwolves
The Rebels had won 3 in a row heading into the international break but they lost a crucial clash at home to the Waratahs on their return to action last weekend. The Tahs finished strongly to win 31-26 although as it stands the Melbourne side still hold a wild card entry which would most likely see them visit the Crusaders in the first knockout round. The Rebels remain the only danger to the Waratahs when it comes to topping the Australian Conference but after last week’s defeat the gap now stands at 4 points with 2 rounds of the regular season remaining.
Securing that play off spot is another matter and their overall record now comprises of 7 wins and 7 defeats. They have won 3 of 6 away from home and after this they finish the regular season away to the Highlanders.
The Rebels have beaten the Brumbies home and away this season and they also thrashed the Reds in the first meeting back in Round 2 although they did have a 1 man advantage for the bulk of that game.
Reds: 15 Jono Lance, 14 Filipo Daugunu, 13 Jordan Petaia, 12 Duncan Paia’aua, 11 Eto Nabuli, 10 Hamish Stewart, 9 Moses Sorovi, 8 Scott Higginbotham (c), 7 George Smith, 6 Caleb Timu, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 JP Smith
Replacements: 16 Alex Mafi, 17 Harry Hoopert, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Lukhan Tui, 20 Angus Scott-Young, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Teti Tela, 23 Aidan Toua
Rebels: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Jack Maddocks, 13 Tom English (c), 12 Billy Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Reece Hodge, 9 Michael Ruru, 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Colby Fainga’a, 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Anaru Rangi, 1 Tetera Faulkner
Replacements: 16 Nathan Charles, 17 Fereti Sa’aga, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Ross Haylett-Petty, 20 Richard Hardwick, 21 Harrison Goddard, 22 Jack Debreczeni, 23 Sefa Naivalu
Recent Head to Head (any venue)
2018 Melbourne Rebels 45-19 Reds (Tries 7-3)
2017 Melbourne Rebels 24–29 Reds (Tries 2-5 )
2016 Brisbane Reds 28–31 Rebels (Tries 4-4)
2016 Melbourne Rebels 25-23 Reds (Tries 1-2)
2015 Brisbane Reds 46-29 Rebels (Tries 6-4 )
2015 Melbourne Rebels 23–15 Reds (Tries 3-2 )
2014 Melbourne Rebels 20–36 Reds (Tries 3-6 )
2014 Brisbane Reds 27-30 Rebels (Tries 3-3 )
2013 Brisbane Reds 33-20 Rebels (Tries 4-2 )
2013 Melbourne Rebels 13–23 Reds (Tries 1-2 )
Reds +3.5 points at 9/10 WSB, BetXchange
Rebels -3.5 points at 9/10 WSB, BetXchange
Note, odds quoted are an average of what was available at the time of last update but are subject to change.
This looks a really tricky one to call in my book. I think it will be close enough for the 1-12 markets to come into play and whilst aspects of the Reds home form gives them a shout the greater incentive lies with the Rebels.
Bet: 2 units, Rebels win by under 12.5 points, 17/10 Sunbet
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