Tour de France 2019 gets underway on Saturday 6th July and Brent Graham nails up his tips from selected outright betting markets
I love my rugby, but if you had to ask me which sporting event I would never want to miss it would have to be the Tour de France.
For many years this sport has captivated my imagination and although I don’t bet on it nearly aggressively as I do on the likes of rugby, there are few things better than landing a successful punt particularly when you get one at long odds. In this preview I am going to have a look at some of the long-term markets and share a few of my bets.
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THE YELLOW JERSEY
Egan Bernal the young Colombian is generally priced around the 2/1 mark and in the past week his price has shortened while his teammate and defending Champion, Geraint Thomas has drifted out to as big as 7/2 with World Sports Betting. The Dane, Jakob Fuglsang is 6/1 and you can get 11/1 and better the balance.
There are a couple of important things to note about this year’s Tour. Firstly, of course, that Chris Froome won’t be there due to his terrible crash in the Dauphine, but secondly that the route is very much geared towards climbers with a limited number of kilometres against the clock, some brutal mountains and plenty of stages that will be hard for even a strong team like INEOS to control.
I really feel there is some value further down the betting boards and I posted in the Goodforthegame Forum earlier in the week that I am on Quintana at 18/1. The Movistar rider has not been at his best in recent years, but he is showing signs of getting some of his old spark back and when I looked at this route, I just thought it was perfect for him, being a true mountain goat. He has a very strong team around him, although he is not yet the dedicated leader and he will have to show on the road that he is stronger than Mikel Landa, but at 9 times the price of his fellow Colombian, Bernal, I have to think that Quintana, a Grand Tour winner, offers some serious betting value.
There is no doubt that the likes of Pinot at 18/1 are also big runners and I would not rule out someone like Kruijswijk at 22/1 or even Enric Mas a 33/1 shot.
One rider I am expecting a good ride from is the 26 year old German, Emanuel Buchmann, generally priced at 66/1. I took some 15/1 that he would podium early in the week, but I see there is 22/1 at GGGaming and that looks a cracking price. He has certainly come on in leaps and bounds this year and impressed me in the Dauphine where he was able to climb with the best. He has a team that is dedicated more to the Green Jersey Race than the Outright, but he should be able to stay in the lead group and if opportunity to present itself may be given more freedom than some of the other favourites.
YELLOW JERSEY BETS:
5 Units Quintana win at 18/1 at Hollywoodbets
1.5 units Buchmann, Top 3 at 22/1 at GGGaming.bet
THE GREEN JERSEY
It is no surprise to see Peter Sagan the favourite here and the 5/10 earlier in the week has been snapped up at 9/20 and even 4/10 now available. Sagan hasn’t been at his best this year, but he has dominated this jersey in the past and it is really hard to see him being beaten on a route that should really suit him.
The likes of Groenewegen might be able to pick up team points on the flat stages, but there are plenty of stages where Sagan can use his ability on an uphill finish to his advantage and he also knows how to attack for points in the mountains. There is no such thing as a sure thing in betting and in particular in cycling, but if I can get him at 5/10 I might well have a massive strike.
One guy who could have perhaps challenged Sagan is Wout van Aert, however he will be riding in support of Groenewegen so won’t get opportunities in the sprint stages to rake up points.
Bet: Consider Sagan in multiples at anything around the 9/20, 5/10 mark
KING OF THE MOUNTAIN JERSEY
There is nothing which really catches my eye in the King of the Mountains Jersey where Alaphilippe is a warm favourite at 16/10 ahead of French Champion, Warren Barguil who is 5/1.
This jersey can on occasion go to one of the big contenders and I prefer to hold fire at this stage.
One long term market where I am interested in getting involved in is Match Bets over the entire race and here I am going for a double
Buchmann to beat Daniel Martin at 9/10 onto Tiesj Benoot to beat Warren Barguil at 5/6
Benoot is not capable of riding for a Top 3, but I do think he can be hovering around the Top 10 and I am expecting Barguil to target the Mountains Jersey and potentially lose big time on some stages.
Bet: 3 Units Buchmann onto Benoot at 2.4/10 at WSB
That is it for our outright preview and remember to join us in our Goodforthegame Forum for daily tips and I will also be doing a Video Preview of each stage which will be on our YouTube Channel and included in the Goodforthegame Preview.
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