The first of two SA derby matches on Saturday's United Rugby Championship coupon comes from Johannesburg where the Lions host the Bulls
Lions v Bulls, Saturday 17th February, Johannesburg, KO 15:00 (South African time)
Referee: AJ Jacobs (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Griffin Colby (South Africa), Dylan November (South Africa)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
Weather Forecast – Johannesburg
Lions:
The Lions were beaten by the Bulls 30-28 at Loftus in their most recent URC outing on the 27th January. The try count was 3-3 and the Lions scored the first 2 of those tries through Marius Louw but they trailed by 1 point at half time. The game remained in the balance going into the final moments when the Bulls landed a penalty to take the lead before Jordan Hendrikse missed a Lions penalty at the death which would have handed them victory.
Prior to the clash with the Bulls the Lions edged out the Sharks 20-18 in Durban, getting up with a late converted try. The Lions only other derby action this season came in the opening round when a late fightback at home to the Stormers came up just short and they were beaten 35-33.
The Lions finished Round 9 with 4 wins and 5 defeats for 24 log points, good enough for tenth place and just 1 point behind a top 8 spot. In the outright betting the Lions are 72/1 shots to win the tournament with BoyleSports
Bulls:
The Bulls are now fourth in the current standings with 6 wins and 3 defeats with 30 log points. Coming into the this round they are 4 points off leaders Leinster, 2 shy of Benetton and 1 behind Glasgow Warriors.
In earlier SA derby matches this the Bulls lost 26-20 away to the Stormers over Xmas whilst in Round 7 they put the Sharks away with a 44-10 victory. Looking ahead the Bulls will host the Stormers in Round 11 on 2nd March.
In last season's match up's with the Lions the Bulls won 31-15 in Johannesburg in Round 1 but they went down 29-25 in the return at Loftus.
In the outright betting the Bulls are 81/10 shots to win the tournament with BoyleSports
Team News
Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Richard Kriel, 13 Henco van Wyk 12 Marius Louw (captain), 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Sanele Nohamba, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Francke Horn, 7 Ruan Venter, 6 Hanru Sirgel, 5 Reinhardt Nothnagel, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 Jaco Visagie, 1 JP Smith
Replacements: 16 PJ Botha, 17 Morgan Naude, 18 Conraad van Vuuren, 19 Darrien Landsberg, 20 Izan Esterhuizen, 21 JC Pretorius, 22 Jordan Hendrikse, 23 Erich Cronje
Bulls: 15 Devon Williams, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Stedman Gans, 12 David Kriel, 11 Canan Moodie, 10 Jaco van der Walt, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Cameron Hanekom, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Ruan Nortje (captain), 4 Reinhardt Ludwig, 3 Mornay Smith, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp.
Replacements: 16. Simphiwe Matanzima, 17. Akker van der Merwe, 18. Francois Kloppers , 19. Janko Swanepoel, 20. Marcell Coetzee/Sergeal Petersen, 21. Keagan Johannes, 22. Johan Goosen, 23. Mpilo Gumede
The Betting,
Lions +4.5 points at 9/10
Bulls -4.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
I handicapped this game Lions +4.5 on Sunday night and with the line coming out in that region I have been flip flopping between the teams all week.
Fortunately we have points lines for these situations and I must admit to being a bit surprised when the line came out at 54.5 as I expected 57.5.
Conditions are good (although hot) and these teams played a 58 pointer in Pretoria so I was thinking of charging into the overs.
Looking at Lions home matches against the Bulls in the URC is something of a handbrake though as these games have been surprisingly low scoring over the last couple of years.
I am going with my initial thought that the line is too low although it won’t be Best Bet material (click here to get my weekly newsletter)
Click here to see what our forum members are punting
BET: 4 units over 54.5 points at 10/11 at Pokerbet*
*Pokerbet are generally 1st to market with rugby points lines – click here to open an account
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Subscribe to our free weekly betting mailer which will include our best and value bets below.
