Couch Critic takes a look at the prospects for all the Super Rugby teams and nails up his best outright bets with @Olimp_SA
SUPER RUGBY 2020 – THE PREVIEW
CRUSADERS
2019 Finish: Winners
Significant Squad Losses: Owen Franks, Ben Funnell, Sam Whitelock, Kieran Read, Jordan Taufua, Ryan Crotty & Israel Dagg.
Considerable signings: Only young Canterbury stars and a few Tasman men.
Expectation for 2020: It is amazing to read the list of departures from the Crusaders squad. It truly is the who’s who of New Zealand rugby. Had coach Scott Robertson also moved on then one would be able to say with more confidence that the champions had no chance of making it four titles in a row.
Verdict compared to 2019: Robertson has Mo’unga, Jack Goodhue, Braydon Ennor, Will Jordan, Bridge, Sevu Reece and David Havili to tear defences to shreds at the back. Can the pack hold up? Only time will tell but I expect the Saders to be there at the business end of the comp yet again.
CHIEFS
2019 Finish: 7th
Significant Squad Losses: Brodie Retallick, Taleni Seu, Jack Debreczeni, Stephen Donald & Marty McKenzie.
Considerable signings: Adam Thompson & Aaron Cruden. Sam McNicol, Damian McKenzie, Sam Cane and Solomon Alaimalo also all returning from long term injuries in 2019.
Expectation for 2020: Much is expected from the Gatland & Cruden inspired Chiefs in 2020. Personally, one season could be a touch quick to expect wonders from a new coach but they should be a seriously improved outfit. They will miss Retallick but with star players returning for duty this season they should be well and truly in the mix.
Verdict compared to 2019: I see the Chiefs competing with the Crusaders for top spot in their conference and they should prove very tough to beat. The men from Hamilton are realistic title contenders in 2020.
HURRICANES
2019 Finish: 4th
Significant Squad Losses: Beauden Barrett! Toomaga-Allen, Sam Lousi, Mat Proctor & Milner-Skudder.
Considerable signings: Perhaps the most significant of them all is new head coach, Jason Holland.
Expectation for 2020: The Hurricanes have lost their superstar flyhalf as well as their head coach (due to All Black duties) in the off-season. Holland might be from within the system but it is still a big change in a rather small amount of time to adjust to.
Verdict compared to 2019: There has been no significant bolstering of the squad whilst they have certainly experienced a few losses. There should be no reason to expect a better performance from them than last season and I actually think they could struggle if they lose a few players, or matches, early.
BLUES
2019 Finish: 13th
Significant Squad Losses: Melani Nanai, Sonny Bill, Nonu & Augustine Pulu.
Considerable signings: Beauden Barrett!
Expectation for 2020: One man doesn’t make a team. As a squad they have lost experience in the centres and even before that the issue with the Blues is often a mental one more than anything else.
Verdict compared to 2019: Leon McDonald has had another year with this mercurial group of rugby players and surely his pragmatism will start to rub off in 2020. If they can get on a run they might just be able to sneak a playoff spot and eclipse the more fancied Hurricanes and Highlanders this season.
HIGHLANDERS
2019 Finish: 8th
Significant Squad Losses: Luke Whitelock, Jackson Hemopo, Liam Squire, Elliot Dixon, Marty Banks, Matt Faddes, Richard Buckman, Waisake Naholo, Tevita Li & Ben Smith.
Considerable signings: Mitch Hunt & Michael Collins.
Expectation for 2020: Aaron Mauger seems a rather astute coach but he really doesn’t have much to work with this season. The Highlanders have always performed better than the sum of their parts but in 2020 they have even less talent to call on and there are some big losses to their squad.
Verdict compared to 2019: I fear this Highlanders team has a very real possibility of not only not making the playoffs but perhaps even finishing last in their Conference this year.
JAGUARES
2019 Finish: 2nd
Significant Squad Losses: Lavanini, Leguizamon, Matera, Landajo & Moyano
Considerable signings: No major additions
Expectation for 2020: After a superb 2019 campaign this will be the first time that the Jaguares are tasked with backing up an impressive Super Rugby season with another. The expectation has been set and despite a disappointing World Cup campaign for the Argentines there is no reason why the South Americans shouldn’t again be a real factor in Super Rugby despite the loss of Matera.
Verdict compared to 2019: The Jagaures have lost a few players but still have a largely international squad a at their disposal. They should be looking to emulate their 2019 efforts but whether they can better that is the question. I see them winning the SA Conference but perhaps coming up short against a Kiwi team in the semis or final again.
STORMERS
2019 Finish: 10th
Significant Squad Losses: Etzebeth and Damian de Allende
Considerable signings: Jamie Roberts
Expectation for 2020: It is never really any different for the Stormers. On paper they always seem to have a squad capable of winning the tournament. This season is no different as they have the biggest contingent of Rugby World Cup winners in their ranks. They have a solid pack of forwards and young exciting backs. The only thing in the way of the Capetonians is their mentality – can John Dobson and a final season playing at Newlands inspire this talented squad?
Verdict compared to 2019: If this team can mentally switch on they can go far but they have lacked the ability to churn out results week in and week out. They should improve in 2020 but a Semi-final spot might be their highest achievable target.
SHARKS
2019 Finish: 6th
Significant Squad Losses: Du Preez trio (plus coach), Akker, Beast, Coenie, Jacques Vermeulen and Ruan Botha.
Considerable signings: Ox Nche, Notshe & James Venter. Also a big contingent of Sharks juniors elevated to Super Rugby duty in 2020 like Nohamba, Pepsi Buthelezi and JJ van der Mesch.
Expectation for 2020: A lot will depend on how the Sharks cope with taking such a big knock in terms of senior players leaving the franchise. They will have an exciting back division but one struggles to see the forwards fronting up for the duration of the season especially when injuries start to play a role.
Verdict compared to 2019: Having finished sixth last season I expect something similar from the Durbanites this time around. A quarter-final appearance might be the best they can strive for.
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BULLS
2019 Finish: 5th
Significant Squad Losses: Brits, Vermeulen, Lood, RG, Pollard & Kriel.
Considerable signings: Juandre Kruger, Josh Strauss & Morne Steyn.
Expectation for 2020: The Bulls have been hit hard by the exodus of players from their ranks. The second-row stocks have taken a serious hit and backline kingpins in the form of Pollard and Kriel will prove tough to replace. They have tried to fill some gaps by bringing back experience but Super Rugby is a gruelling four (or five if you make the playoffs) month competition and I just don’t see the Bulls having the firepower to compete for glory.
Verdict compared to 2019: Given the personnel lost I can’t see the Bulls improving on last season’s efforts. They will do well to make the playoffs, but I don’t see it happening for the men in blue.
LIONS
2019 Finish: 9th
Significant Squad Losses: Marx, Mapoe, Kwagga, Whiteley, Dyanthi, Combrinck, Cyle Brink, Harold Vorster & James Venter.
Considerable signings: Jannie du Plessis, Roelof Smit & Jamba Ulengo.
Expectation for 2020: There has been a steady exodus from the Lions over the past three seasons. Little remains from the once dominant Johannesburg franchise – head coach, Swys de Bruyn has also moved on. I am not expecting much from the Lions in 2020.
Verdict compared to 2019: A further drop from last year. They are my pick to finish last in the SA Conference.
REBELS
2019 Finish: 11th
Significant Squad Losses: Hugh Roach, Adam Coleman, Genia, Quade Cooper & Jack Maddocks.
Considerable signings: Gideon Koegelenberg, Ruan Smith & Michael Wells
Expectation for 2020: The Rebels have lost Genia and Cooper and haven’t made significant additions to their tight five. Dave Wessels has them punching above their weight but I reckon they could just take one or two too many blows to top their pool and will have to put in a big shift to squeeze a playoff spot after that.
Verdict compared to 2019: They should stay above the Reds, Sunwolves and Waratahs but eighth could prove their ceiling.
BRUMBIES
2019 Finish: 3rd
Significant Squad Losses: Rory Arnold, Sam Carter, Pocock, Lealiifano & Speight.
Considerable signings: No major signings.
Expectation for 2020: The Brumbies managed to top the Australian Conference last year and it should again be a straight shootout between them and the Rebels for this honour.
Verdict compared to 2019: A few seniors have moved on but this Brumbies team still has the squad to top the Aussie Pool. I see them replicating their third place finish but struggling to make it much further than that.
WARATAHS
2019 Finish: 12th
Significant Squad Losses: Seko Kepu, Tola Latu, Polota-nau, Michael Wells, Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Chris Rona, Adam Ashley-Cooper & Israel Folau.
Considerable signings: Jack Maddocks and a few younger players from within the Australian territories.
Expectation for 2020: No Super Rugby team has been ravaged by players leaving a franchise more than the Tahs have. Their faithful will hope that a new young squad pitch up with more passion and hunger than what they’ve seen from their side in recent times.
Verdict compared to 2019: Given the squad they had available to them it was a horror show from the NSW franchise in 2019. Log position wise I am not expecting must better from the Waratahs this time around but given their fresh squad they at least have a better excuse for a lower table finish in 2020.
REDS
2019 Finish: 14th
Significant Squad Losses: Ruan Smith, Higginbotham, Samu Kerevi, Duncan Paia’aua & Sefa Naivalu.
Considerable signings: James O’Connor & Henry Speight.
Expectation for 2020: A young team last year and now they have lost even more experience. Kerevi was their talisman and his loss will be a crippling blow.
Verdict compared to 2019: With the likes of James O’Connor, Chris Feauai-Sautia and Speight at his disposal Brad Thorn will do well to give his team the licence to have a proper go. They just don’t have the capacity to make it into the top eight but they could surprise a few teams on their day and will hopefully be exciting to watch.
SUNWOLVES
2019 Finish: 15th
Significant Squad Losses: Too many to mention – almost complete squad overhaul. Tony Brown no longer the coach.
Considerable signings: Chris Eves, Jaba Bergvadze, Rudy Paige, Garth April, Ben Teo’o & JJ Engelbrecht.
Expectation for 2020: The World Cup must have been a massive boost to Japanese rugby and one would expect the Sunwolves to ride that wave in 2020. Yet they know they won’t be part of the tournament in 2021 and have lost a whole host of their key fighters. With the Japanese local competition moved later due to the World Cup it means that these local club players will have little involvement in Super Rugby this season.
Verdict compared to 2019: No Shota Horie, Himeno, Leitch, Lappies, Amanaki Mafi, Tanaka, Michael Little and Gerhard van den Heever means this side will have no illusion of doing any better than last spot. They will struggle for a victory in 2020 let alone a move up the log.
BETOLIMP BEST BETS
To miss the Playoffs – Hurricanes @5.00
Regular Season Wins – Sunwolves under 1.5 @1.95
Regular Season Winner – Jaguares @11.00
Top Tournament Tryscorer:
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Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change
Couch Critic
