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 I had a pretty quiet week on the fixed odds front with my best bet the Sharks -6.5 pulling me square in the Super 14 and a clutch par putt by Stenson on the 18th ensuring some profits in the golf.
I have heard a lot of complaints about the quality of the Super 14 this year and while I acknowledge that the standard of play has not always been up there as a punter it really doesn’t matter – there are 6 or 7 games a weekend to bet on and that’s all that counts in my eyes. I got off to a winning start in round 8 when I backed the Crusaders -2.5 against the Bulls and the men from Christchurch got up by 3 points to deliver my profits by the narrowest of margins. The Force made it 2 from 2 when they hammered the Reds comfortably eclipsing the 4.5 point start they were giving their Aussie rivals. In my preview of the Chiefs v Lions game I predicted a huge win for the home side and like many punters I was caught out on this one with the Lions nearly pulling off at 16/1 upset and comfortably staying within the 23.5 point start they were given by the bookmakers. I did clean up on the spreads (I cover these bets in our discussion forum as decisions are only made after seeing conditions and final teams) but from a fixed odds performance it was a 4 unit loss for the black book. As narrow as my win was in the opener so I was on the wrong side of the line in Sydney where I took +5 Stormers (particularly annoying having tipped +6 tie no bet only to find the line had shifted when I phoned to bet) before watching them stay in touch and then concede a late try to lose by 6 points. The Cheetahs also let me down badly although having originally fancied them to beat the Brumbies I started changing my mind as kick off approach and only had them as the start of a 2 unit multiple so was not exactly broken when they capitulated in typical fashion as I was on match and Brumbies shirt numbers in the spreads. Finally my Best Bet* of the weekend the Sharks came to the party justifying my 6 unit outlay on the -6.5 against the Hurricanes. They ground their opponents down in typical fashion and while there was a scare or two late on they were full value for their 16 point win in the end. Overall I pulled pretty close to square in the Super 14 showing a 0.1 unit loss. The only other action on my side was in the golf where I sat up late Sunday night watching the conclusion of the Houston Open. At various stages I was following different players as first Moore (250/1) started the last round as one of 6 leaders and then Glover (80/1) had a birdie putt to tie the lead before collapsing from -11 to -3 in just three holes. It was left to Stenson (66/1) to steady the ship and deliver each way returns when he held things together over the tough closing holes nailing a tricky par putt on the par 4 18th which was playing to an average of over 5 shots on the day. Had he missed the putt he would have finished in a mass tie for 5th and my payback would have been negligible. By the way my 250/1 pick Moore finished only 1 shot out of the placings when he bogeyed the last. This week is the US Masters of course and my first previews are in our golf section with more to follow. JOIN ME AT AUGUSTA I would also like to invite you to join my Mini League in the US Masters Fantasy Competition at www.fs.co.za Simply log onto www.fs.co.za and register Then enter a team in the US Masters and look for my mini league “Taming the Tiger” The password is “Tiger” You just select a 4 ball to represent you and then sit back and enjoy. I guarantee it will add to your Masters experience. BETTING SUMMARY Balance after week 12: +114.66 units
Week 13 result: +4.9 units
Running balance: +119.56 units Pending Premier League: 30 units (Chelsea win 20, Hull last 10) Champions League: 8 units (Chelsea win 2, any English team 6)
Golf: Race to Dubai: 30 units (10 wins Garcia and 20 places Garcia) PSL: Ajax (5 units at 2/1) Super 14: 60 units (Sharks Top SA, Brumbies Top Aus, Hurricanes Top Kiwi, Cheetahs for last, Sharks and Canes to win, a match bet treble Lions/Cheetahs, Reds/Highlanders, Sharks/Blues) F1: 2 units Button for the title at an average of 53/1 *BEST BET Get my best and value bets each week – simply drop me a line at brent@goodforthegame.co.za and I will add you to the list and you can also follow me on http://www.twitter.com/brentgraham Finally you can take a look at my early thoughts on the week 9 S14 handicaps in our discussion forum by clicking here.
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