|
Written by Brent Graham
|
|
My recent profits have been built on sound research and patience, this weekend the latter deserted me and my bank balance has taken the blow to prove it.
Things started off pretty well on Friday as I backed the Blues to beat the Cheetahs by more than 18 points and after an early try the handicap never really looked in danger. I then had a bet on the Brumbies to beat the Waratahs at 9/10 and a strong second half showing saw them home. Going into Saturday’s action things were running to plan and I was 6 units up. I left the Crusaders match alone but really fancied my chances in the final 3 games of the weekend. My Best Bet* was Chiefs -3.5 at 8/10 and I put 5 units down to collect a profit of 4 units as the Chiefs scraped home by the narrowest of margins. The problem was I had also taken them as the first leg of a treble but the bookmaker in question was offering +4.5 and while I collected 4 units on the one hand I lost 3 on the multiple showing only a single unit profit on the game. Still I was in profit and I really fancied the Sharks strongly against the Reds taking -7 at 9/10 tie no bet with Betxchange. They started strongly enough but it was the Reds who scored first and never looked back as the Sharks put in a shocker of a performance in what (given my long term interest in them) I hope was just a bad day at the office. I had also been having a go at the spreads on the side and had taken a couple of bad beats including one in the Brumbies game where a careless mistake ended up costing me plenty. I was in a pretty frustrated mood then heading into the Stormers Lions clash and inexplicably I fired 22 units onto the Lions at +9 (tie no bet) and a further 3 units on them to win the game at 33/10. This reckless move looked likely to pay dividends as they raced to a 12-3 lead but a mistake from the resultant restart saw Burger in for a soft try and it was all downhill from there. Visitors to the site on Monday morning would have seen me vent my anger on coach “Loffie” Eloff in my Super 14 wrap and some of that reaction was certainly sparked by my 25 unit loss on the game although 24 hours later I stand by my calls for his head. I came out with a loss of 23.5 units on the Super 14 in round 5. There was big golf on the go with the CA Champs in Doral and I got involved to the tune of 13 units. After round one 4 of my 5 selections were right in the thick of things with 50/1 shot Goosen missing a short putt at the last that would have given him the outright lead. I am not sure what side of the bed he got out on the next morning but he went backwards at a rate of knots and in the end I was left hoping for a miracle finish by Stricker or O’ Hair to get me into the place money but they could only manage a tie for 13th behind a rejuvenated Phil Mickelson. All eyes were on Tiger of course and after a slow start he showed enough to suggest he is the man to beat in the majors in 2009. I will be posting an article on “Tiger Specials” soon. To cap a miserable weekend I tipped Ireland -6.5 in my Goodforthegame preview but not being by my computer I ended up taking -7 tie no bet with Betxchange. The result a 7 point win for Ireland and my money back which is better than a loss but I am still kicking myself for not taking the 6.5 as I wrote the article. On a positive note my Ireland investment in the 6 Nations (see below in pending) is looking good and they need to stay within 12 points against Wales this weekend. I did take a bit of cover on France (2 units at 6.25/1) and Wales (7 units at 18/10) just before the matches kicked off. That ensured I would not lose my stake and I may take some of the 4/1 Wales currently on offer to guarantee a profit – just in case. It is also time to write off the 3.92 units placed on the FA Cup with Fulham being the last of my sides to bite the dust. A very poor weekend then as I shed 40% of my profits to date to dip back below 100 units for 2009. BETTING SUMMARY
Balance after week 9: +131.31 units
Week 10 result: -42.42 units
Running balance: +98.64 units PendingPremier League: 30 units (Chelsea win 20, Hull last 10)Champions League: 9.5 units (Chelsea win 2, any English team 6, Juventus 1.5 at 25/1)
Golf: Race to Dubai: 30 units (10 wins Garcia and 20 places Garcia)6 Nations: 10 units (Ireland at 5.25/1 average) 7 units cover Wales at 18/10PSL: Ajax (5 units at 2/1)Super 14: 60 units (Sharks Top SA, Brumbies Top Aus, Hurricanes Top Kiwi, Cheetahs for last, Sharks and Canes to win, a match bet treble Lions/Cheetahs, Reds/Highlanders, Sharks/Blues)
*BEST BETGet my best and value bets each week – simply drop me a line at brent@goodforthegame.co.za and I will add you to the list. You can take a look at my early thoughts on the week 6 S14 handicaps in our discussion forum.
|
