After seeing his long term English Premier League and Super 14 bets getting blown out of the water Brent Graham was pretty depressed as he sat down to watch the golf on Sunday night but a certain Henrik Stenson changed all of that.

When the Force fell 2 points short of beating the Stormers on Saturday evening my much hyped Best Bet* of the weekend had fallen flat. I had correctly forecast that the 9/10 about the Force was great value as the money came for them and they started 6/10 in places but it doesn’t help to get that part of the equation right when the bet itself fails to arrive.

That 10 unit loss was just another body blow on a weekend where my long term Super 14 bets enjoyed mixed but generally disappointing fortunes.

Heading into round 13 they were all in the balance and my Hurricanes to be Top New Zealand team (10 units at 5/2) was the first to come under pressure when they went down to the Chiefs in Hamilton. They are not out of it entirely but in order for me to collect I will need the Brumbies to upset the Chiefs on their own turf this weekend. 

Talking of the Brumbies I had backed them to be Top Australian side (10 units at 18/10) and their win against the Blues puts them 1 point clear of the Waratahs. The problem is that this weekend they are in Hamilton while the Tah’s are in Joburg to meet the Lions and I will have to hold thumbs for an upset Lions win to have a chance I think. 

The Waratahs win over the Sharks dealt me the cruelest blow of all as it not only kept them in the running for top Australian side but also knocked the Sharks out of the Top South African side market with the Bulls having now wrapped that up. I had a 20 unit strike on the Durban team at 14/10 and it is hard to believe they were on offer at only 6/10 just a few weeks back, what a collapse! 

My long term multiple of the Sharks to beat the Blues, the Lions to beat the Cheetahs and the Reds to beat the Highlanders at 5.71/1 is now gone as well – chalk another 5 units to the bookies.

There was some good news though with the Cheetahs “securing” the Wooden Spoon in going down to the Bulls at Loftus. I had 5 units on at 22/10 and at least claw 11 units back on that one.

I also backed the Crusaders -15.5 against the Reds on Friday and on the weekend itself only went down 5.5 units in the rugby despite my big loss on the Force.

I have begun taking Socca Scrambles again and picked up a nice 10 unit profit in midweek PSL action bankering Bloem Celtic who did the business against Bay United. I had a couple of losers on the weekend and a 5 unit win on Newcastle last night for a nett profit of 10.98 units in the footie. 

STENSON YOU BISCUIT

My saving grace this weekend was without a doubt the golf where I managed to break out of a recent slump to record a 1-2 finish with 50/1 Stenson and 80/1 Poulter. You can see more info in this thread on our Discussion Forum and I am sure you can imagine I was pretty satisfied with a nett profit of 104.75 units on the golf for a total of 13 units invested. 

It is amazing that as a punter I seem to do well in certain events while I struggle in others (I thought this only happened to the golfers) and the Players Championship has been very profitable with 3 winners in the last 6 years at odds of 40/1 or greater (Scott, Garcia and now Stenson).

It is time to neaten up my long term bets many of which have been pending for months. Over and above the Super 14 bets mentioned above I am also writing off Chelsea (20 units title, 2 units Champions League) and Ajax (5 units PSL). I am going to let my 10 units on Hull to finish last stay in for another week as there is still an outside chance and on the Super 14 front I am down 14 units with the Canes and Brumbies still riding as well as my outright bets on the Canes and Sharks. 

Jenson Button is now into odds on for the F1 title so I am pretty comfortable with my 53/1 average on that one and I also have a few Giro d’Italia bets riding which I have included under pending.

BETTING SUMMARY

Balance after week 17: 36.89 units
Week 18 result: 69.23 units (+110.23 week 18 less 41 long term)
Running balance: +106.12 units

Pending Bets

Premier League: 10 units Hull to finish last

Champions League: 6 units any English Team

Super 14: 30 units (Brumbies Top Aus, Hurricanes Top Kiwi, Sharks and Canes to win)

F1: 2 units Button for the title at an average of 53/1

Cycling: Giro – 8.5 units (Armstrong to wear pink, Armstrong to win a stage, Vandevelde for win, podium and Top 10)

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