Goodforthegame forum member and punter extraordinaire “Squatter”* expands on his thoughts on how to profit from horse racing betting. Here he looks at placing place bets.

This is sometimes my favourite market in horse racing.  Most of you who follow some of my selections will have noticed that my system kicks up a lot of horses that do win but even more that place.  There is nothing more frustrating than backing a horse to win and it finishes a close up second.  You do your money, sometimes because of a bad ride or interference in the running etc.

What I do like to do is analyse Bookmaker Places (aka - Fixed Odds places).  Most bookies will offer this bet, Hollywood does (editors note: as do our bookmaking partners – see links below article) and it's all online.  Basically they are calculated by taking the odds of a horse to win for example 5/1.  Then depending on the strength of the favourite and the number of runners this 5/1 can be divided by 4, 5, 6 or 7.  Each bookie has his own calculations.  In general a horse quoted at 6/1 to win roughly pays about 12/10 a place.  Not bad odds for the second or third favourite.  If you fancy the horse to win then back it to win but also take places.  Sometimes you like a horse but are not sure if it'll win.  In those cases back the place only.  Most of us on this forum are not shy about betting on an event that offers 6/10 and over.  What is different with horse racing?  A horse can have a bad day as can a sports team or individual.  Value is value and each of us has got an idea of what value represents.

The bookmaker places generally apply to horses carded.  If 14 are carded but only 12 run due to scratchings you are still offered 4 places.  On the Tote, you are only offered fourth place dividends in fields of 16 or more runners.  This is important to remember.  If only 15 horses run but you expected 16 to run you only get paid for the first 3 places. So any calculations or logic that you developed are now null and void.

Also to remember.  The Tote does not offer places on SA racing with less than 8 runners.  The bookies will generally offer first 2 or 3 place betting on such races.  This is very important as I don't subscribe to the smaller the field the bigger the upset theory.  All races are risky as a horse cannot tell you when it's not feeling well or fit.

Also the bookmaker places are fixed.  If you fancy a horse at 4/1 for e.g., you will get roughly 8/10 a place.  The horse shortens to 5/2 and you still get 8/10.  On the tote a 5/2 shot normally pays about R1.40 a place.  Quite a big difference.

Once again as in Part 1 of this topic, the tote dividends depend on the number of people that have backed a particular horse.

Not so with the bookie, you get a price, you back the price and wait for the race.

I'd say that Fixed odd places pay out more than Tote places about 90% of the time.  Also on the tote you often get strange discrepancies.  2 weeks ago in a Kenilworth meeting we had the following scenario in multiple races,  an 8/1 shot paid R1.40 a place.  In the same race the 22/10 favourite paid R1.90 a place.  This is not uncommon, just tune into Tellytrack, bring up the days results and analyse this yourself.  Makes for strange reading.  All this is due to the fact that a lot of people betting with the tote see money coming for a place bet.  This is not necessarily stable money.  Could be me putting

a R1000 place bet on a horse.  The horse shortens from R2.20 a place to R1.30 a place.  Voila, this horse must be going to place and so people also bet on the horse.  The original favourites place odds lengthen and vice-versa.  This is not easy to predict, impossible I'd say.

So look around for decently priced horses that you fancy and consider backing Fixed Odds Places.  You'll be surprised at the value you get and for a lesser risk than betting only on wins.

True, most of us prefer to hit that 20/1 shot.  In truth how often does this happen. Zorba and I amongst others have both done it on this forum but from how many selections?  It is more common for us to tip winners in the 4/1 to 10/1 range. Yet if you look at our selections and look at how many have in fact placed and at what odds you'll also be surprised.

Obviously, the selections that we place on the forum are from our own systems, inside info etc.  They are an aid to help others construct their bets and we have some losing days.  Just take your favourite newspaper and look through their selections and I'd wager that they have winning and place percentages lower than ours on any given day.  This is not boasting on my side.
Once I have posted the selections I back them myself.  If others lose they can rest assured that I have lost as well.  I can't speak for Zorba but I'm pretty sure he'll say the same.

Also I do not bet on all the races that I put up.  The reason is that sometimes I'll put up a selection but it is quoted at a price shorter than what I feel is value for that particular selection.  For example, in my estimation I'll expect 4/1 for a particular horse.  When I go to place the bet it is quoted at 12/10.  I'll just not bet on that race.  Sure you'll miss out on some winners this way but then again you'll feel less stupid than losing on a horse that is not value to you and it runs second. I'm not saying that you shouldn't bet on 4/10 horses if you are very confident it'll win but generally I stay away from those.

Yet if I can get R1.50 a fixed place for a 5/2 favourite in a 9 horse field where several of the runners have form that suggests they only run on 3 legs then I'm in.  It's up to each person to determine their risk threshold vs. their profit threshold.

Please note that from my research, the fixed place rules described above aren't as profitable on UK or other foreign racing. In these cases it is best to bet on the Tote.  The payouts are far better on average.  Yip, have stats to prove it as well. I am a stats fanatic and keep many on most sports that I bet in, I consider Horseracing a sport unlike many.

In betting on racing especially do NOT be like a sheep.  Money going on to a horse doesn't necessarily mean the horse has a greater chance.  More than any other sport it is subjective and easy to manipulate as I've shown.

I hope that this 2 part series has helped and given you more betting options and perhaps a new way of looking at Horseracing betting for the future.  There are profits to be made if you are selective and are prepared to do some research and quick mental arithmetic.  For those not wishing to place Win bets, rest assured, I don't do it all the time either and am in a very healthy profit situation from Fixed Odds places for the last several years.

Winning is winning and a winning bet as we all know is therapeutic and fulfilling.

Click here to read part 1 of this article.

Squatter is a regular contributor to the Goodforthegame Sports Betting Forum where he joins other punters in sharing information with a view to beating the bookies. You can keep an eye on his progress or create an account and post your own views in the Forum.

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