Goodforthegame forum poster, horse racing and sports punter, “Squatter”* shares his views on how best to extract value when playing the horses.

Hi all, this is all very self explanatory but may be of assistance to some people.

Opinions vary as to which type of bet is the best in horseracing.  Intuition often plays a big part in choosing your option.  If you have information about a specific horse or a gut feel that the current price is right (this differs from person to person) then you should take it with a Bookmaker.

The reason being that the price is fixed as of the time of your bet.  Thus if a horse get's any support and shortens in the market you are on at the bigger price.  Conversely if you could also back a horse at for eg. 2/1 and it drifts in the market to say 5/1 you feel a prat as you lose out on the 3 points.  Also remember that if a scratching occurs after you have placed your bet then you get a percentage deducted off the price that you were quoted.

The tote is obviously driven by the pool, which is the total amount wagered on a particular race, the TAB then deducts quite a large tax percentage and the remainder is divided amongst the winners of the bets placed.  The problem I have is that a large number of people bet on the tote.  You are not guaranteed a price.  I have come across horses that are 8/1 on the bookies but only paying out 3/1 on the tote.  Remember that the 8/1 quoted on the bookie is 8 rand (less 6% tax) plus your rand back.  On the

tote, the dividend already includes your rand so a R3.70 return is actually only a profit of R2.70 or 2.7/1.

The pools on the Totalisator are much bigger I'd say than with the bookies (I stand to be corrected though), however, most bookies in SA are not really Bookies in the true sense of the word.  A bookie should have his own book, which is a price for each horse quoted - by himself - and there should be an overround, the bookies profit.  A bookie should never lose if he keeps his own book.  So if a horse is backed then the horse shortens and the other odds lengthen.  This will then most likely make people bet on other horses

and those shorten and others lengthen.  In S.A. though, there is a dissemination line which most bookies tap into.  Every few minutes an announcement is made that a horse's odds have shortened or lengthened.  The bookie adjusts the prices on his board in accordance with this announcement.  Theoretically bookies can lose this way.  I could be one of a handful of punters in front of a bookie.  A price comes through, 5 of us back it and nobody backs anything else.  The horse arrives and we all win.  The bookie has lost!!!

Of course if it wins he stands to lose a lot of money, he can lay off some by betting with other bookies, a common practice.  If the horse loses, he loses some money but has also decreased his risk in the case of the horse winning.

The Tote is a different animal.  Most SA racing punters bet on the Tote.  Thus rumours abound about a certain horse and the people back it.  Most races (not features) have a win pool of about 40-R70000 on average.  Once again this varies, but is fairly accurate.  So somebody wagering a large amount i.e. R10 000 can drastically shorten a horse's price on the Tote.  The same result can be achieved by many smaller punters lumping on the same horse.  So the prices on the Tote are not indicative of a horse's chances in all cases.  A bookie should have analyzed a race and priced up accordingly to what he thinks will happen.  So you generally get a fairish price on a horse's chances in any given race.  On the tote, it is different; the payout is based on the number of people betting on a horse.

A few years ago a couple of cases of price manipulation occurred at a Greyville Night meeting. Basically somebody placed a large amount of money on several horses in a series of races.  The tote obviously shortened.  The bookies had the horses quoted in one race at 10/1 and 12/1 respectively yet on the tote they were showing R4.20 and R6.40 a win.  The misinformed punter saw the price dropping and lumped on.  The bookies favourite was showing R7.80 a win but was 12/10.  A minute or so before the off time, the person/s cancelled the large bets and backed the favourite.  The tote didn't have a lot of time to adjust and because people had followed the "money" the closing price on the tote for the 12/10 favourite ended up at R4.90.   The tote held inquiries etc and now when you cancel a bet over a certain amount you need ID etc but it was a nice con at the time.  Wish it had been me.

This is only 1 example of this but several others exist.  Empress Club paying R1.20 a win and R5.80 a place is a classic example of somebody manipulating the place pool.  You lump R30 000 on a given horse.  The horse is showing R0.30 a place.  This is not value as at the most you'll be refunded your R1. So you bet on other horses - in most cases not your selection but in an effort to get value.  Once again just before the off you cancel R25 000 of your original bet and voila, an inflated place payout as the average punter cannot get on due to not enough time being left over before the off.

Bookies have eliminated this because unless the error is theirs they will not refund any bets placed with them. This is fair enough.

So in summary when betting win bets look for value.  Shop around although from my experience I'd rather bet with a bookie when I'm certain a particular horse's price will shorten.  If I think that it will drift I'll take an SP (starting price with a bookie) or bet on the Tote.  I believe that bookies have more generous prices but not in all cases.

Squatter is a regular contributor to the Goodforthegame Sports Betting Forum where he joins other punters in sharing information with a view to beating the bookies. You can keep an eye on his progress or create an account and post your own views in the Forum.

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