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Follow your instincts! Print E-mail
Written by Brent Graham   

When I write my betting previews for the Goodforthegame website I do plenty of research as I strive to find betting angles at the right prices which will give me a long term edge over the bookmakers.

 

 

There are times though where the best opportunities come at you without warning, often in the middle of a game where your decision to bet (or invest as I prefer to call it) is made on the spur of the moment and is based less on stats and more on gut feel given what you have already witnessed and where you think the match is heading.

 

This past weekend Leicester hosted the Springbok XV in the end of year tour opener and while I went for the home team to stay within 10 points before kickoff this was far from a confident call as their was no form to go on, both teams were fielding untested combinations and the English weather is always unpredictable.

 

The Boks came out firing but Leicester started to dominate upfront and led 16-11 at the break. As a matter of routine I popped online to check the prices more for interest than actually expecting to place a bet. In my view this game could now go either way and I was leaning slightly towards the Tigers as their scrum was demolishing the Bok second stringers.

 

I rubbed my eyes then to see a local bookmaker offering 14/10 (1.4/1) that Leicester would win the game. Surely they were watching a different game to the one I was and to install the Boks as such firm favourites seemed way off the mark although being based in South Africa they were perhaps allowing for some patriotic support.

 

They would not get any of that from me though and I jumped all over the quotes on offer. Had they offered Leicester at around 12/10 (1.2/1) which was generally where the other bookies set the line I would probably have passed but the price was enough to trigger my value radar and my assessment of the match proved spot on as the Boks were literally scrummed into submission.

 

The lesson here is that as a sports punter you need to be alert to opportunity when it presents itself and while the results will not always fall in your favour if you have read the situation correctly you will profit in the long run

 

This article first appeared in the Citizen CitiGaming section on Thursday 12 November 2009

 

Brent Graham is a blogger on www.goodforthegame.co.za and presents a sports betting radio show every Saturday morning at 07h30 on 1485AM Radio Today or Channel 169 of the DSTV Audio Bouquet.

 

You can follow him on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/brentgraham or get on his mailing list by dropping him a line at brent@goodforthegame.co.za

 

 

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