Last week I wrote about the Leopards home game against the Eagles and the pain of researching a fixture and arriving at what I thought was a great bet only to see my profits snatched away when the hosts conceded 3 late tries.

Experiences like that can cause self doubt but never one to stay down for long I was back in front of the laptop midweek readying myself for this past weekends Currie Cup final.

Truth be told I was struggling to separate the Bulls and Cheetahs on the handicap (the Cheetahs were given a 9 point start) but I did come across a host of stats that suggested that there would be plenty of points in the match.

• While the previous 2 finals had only 23 and 38 points the last 3 finals at Loftus averaged 62 points
• The last 4 Currie Cup semifinals at Loftus had averaged 63 points each
• The Bulls last 6 home matches had all delivered more than 50 points
• The last 5 matches between these sides at Loftus had averaged 55 points

My eyes lit up when I saw World Sports Betting offering 9/10 odds over or under 42.5 points. Yes it was a final but my homework indicated that at Loftus even the big games tend to be high scoring.

It was 3 days before kick off but I knew that to get the price I would have to get on early and I highlighted the punt to my mailing list and on the Goodforthegame website as well.

Sure enough the overs shortened into 7/10 a sign that money had indeed come for it and for good measure I grabbed some of the 15/10 more than 46 points at GreatOdds as well.

Saturday morning came and my one worry was the weather. There was a massive storm Friday night and the clouds teased me all day alternating between letting some sun through and packing together in a grey, rain threatening mass.

Fortunately the game kicked off in perfect conditions and a couple of quick Bulls tries had me cheering wildly at the TV. The bet was never in doubt (60 points were scored) and I could relax in the second half and reflect on a plan that had indeed come together.

Stats are not the be all and end all but ignore them at your peril.

This article first appeared in the Citizen CitiGaming section on Thursday 05 November 2009

Brent Graham is a blogger on www.goodforthegame.co.za and presents a sports betting radio show every Saturday morning at 07h30 on 1485AM Radio Today or Channel 169 of the DSTV Audio Bouquet.

You can follow him on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/brentgraham or get on his mailing list by dropping him a line at brent@goodforthegame.co.za