I always bet bigger than usual on the Nedbank Challenge and this past renewal was no exception.. Strange thing is though I am not sure whether to be seriously annoyed at not cleaning the bookmakers out or relieved that they did not do likewise to me? Let me explain.

My 2 big bets were both founded on statistical analysis and backed up by reports from the course in the days before tee off.

Bet 1 was that the low round of the tournament would be 65 or better at odds of 11/10. This would have arrived 9 of the previous 10 years and that strike rate was my cue to climb in with a lumpy punt.

Bet 2 was that the winners score would be -13 or better. This would have arrived 7 from the last 10 runnings but what really swayed me was the fact that the rough had been cut back supposedly making it a lot easier for the players to go low. I took plenty of stock at odds of 9/10.

It would be fair to say that the first couple of rounds never went to plan with a 68 and a 67 being the best rounds respectively. At the halfway point the leader sat on -7 so the 13 under bet looked ok but aside from a brief sniff from Cabrera nobody had threatened to break 66.

Round 3 was to prove profitable with Nick Watney coming from nowhere to equal the course record with a 63. The leader sat on -12 and with profits from Bet 1 banked I looked set to nail down a huge profit come Sunday as a number of players looked likely to finishing -13 or better.

As the players teed off, I was already calculating my eventual winnings but it became clear early that the course was playing tough and that some of the leaders were struggling. Amazingly the tournament was won with a -11 final score a result that initially left me very unhappy given my position of strength on Sunday morning.

On reflection though I should probably be counting my lucky stars as Watney’s freak round aside there were no other sub 66 rounds and it could have been a bloodbath. You win some and lose some in this game and on the balance of play pulling square was perhaps not such a bad result.

This article first appeared in the Citizen CitiGaming section on Thursday 10 December 2009

Brent Graham is a blogger on www.goodforthegame.co.za and presents a sports betting radio show every Saturday morning at 07h30 on 1485AM Radio Today or Channel 169 of the DSTV Audio Bouquet.

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