People would be amazed as to the amount of research I put into my sports betting especially when I get involved in the spreads which can be very volatile. I take a long hard look at history and recent form and in the hours leading up to a game I keep my ear to the ground for any late team news.

When deciding on whether the game is going to be low on points or high scoring the weather is also crucial and I have mates in Sydney and Perth for example that I can call on for a conditions update a half hour before kickoff in the Super 14.

This past weekend I decided to sell or go low on points at 49 in the Sharks v Bulls semifinal. I based my decision on stats as while I knew there had been rain in the week conditions a couple of hours before kickoff were good.

The last 5 matches between the sides in Durban had averaged 43 points with the highest 62 (week 2 of this year) and the lowest 23 (Final 2008) and in the last 5 years no semifinal or final in Durban had yielded more than 44 points.

My logic seemed sound enough and I settled down to watch the game only to find a swarm of bees had descended on the field delaying the start by around 40 minutes. My initial reaction was that I just wanted the game to get going but every time they showed a shot of the stadium from the field I noticed the clouds packing closer together. I began to wonder if this swarm of bees may delay things long enough to allow some of the forecast evening rain to arrive, making conditions slippery, a points sellers dream.

That is exactly what transpired and towards the end of the first half the rain came impacting a match it would have played little part in had they kicked off on time. Now I am pretty sure I would have shown a profit anyway but there is no doubt that the heavens opening helped restrict total points to 28 ensuring a very tasty profit on the game.

I benefitted from the bees attempted coup but there would have been other punters that cursed the rain and it goes to show that while you can do your homework there is always an element of chance at play.

Betting previews for the weekends Currie Cup Promotion/Relegation Playoffs will be posted in our RUGBY SECTION

This article was written for the CitiGaming supplement of the Citizen Newspaper and was first published on the 21st of October 2010.

Brent Graham is a blogger on www.goodforthegame.co.za and presents a sports betting radio show every Thursday night from 22h00 – 22h30 on 1485AM Radio Today or Channel 169 of the DSTV Audio Bouquet and to get on his free weekly e-mail list just send a message to brent@goodforthegame.co.za titled “Best Bets”..

You can follow him on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/brentgraham or get on his mailing list by dropping him a line at brent@goodforthegame.co.za

Odds on is a weekly betting blog for the CitiGaming section of the Citizen Newspaper