In February of this year we launched www.sportspicks.co.za a sports prediction site with a betting angle. Our first competition was on the Super 14 and saw entrants having to pick which team would win on the handicap each week. {readmorelink}Read more{/readmorelink} 

For example the Hurricanes started +15.5 away to the Bulls and while they lost the game they did so by less than 16 points and had you gone for the Hurricanes you would have called that one correctly.

We are now in the early stages of our Currie Cup handicap competition and an analysis of the stats on both competitions makes interesting reading.

Our Currie Cup leader at the time of writing Michael van Dewenter and his team “Bulle Bly Maar Bo” has nailed 15/16 picks so far a strike rate of 93%. He is not an isolated case though and the challengers are queuing up behind him as the race to be the Currie Cup handicap champion hots up.

Now the handicaps set for both competitions are provided by local bookmaker World Sports Betting (www.wsb.co.za) so we are talking genuine lines which in theory give the punter a 50/50 shot at winning.

Our leader at a similar stage in the Super 14 version was striking at only 71% and simply put the lads are absolutely flying in the Currie Cup which if we make the assumption that a good percentage of them bet on sport, means the bookmakers must be coming under some serious fire.

What I am interested in is why the performance levels in the competitions are so different. Is it because the bookmakers are less clued up on the local teams like the Leopards and Pumas than the likes of the Crusaders and Brumbies? On the other hand do local rugby fans know more about these sides than those across the ocean? Is the Currie Cup potentially more profitable to punt on or is this just a case of a few lopsided games (86% went for the Bulls -9.5 away to the Lions this past weekend) perhaps skewing the stats and over the course of the season things will even out?

I don’t know the answers yet but I will be monitoring the remainder of the season closely and will in the meanwhile be placing a bet on the handicap most fancied by our entrants each week, I have a sneak it could prove to be very profitable.

Click here for our Tri Nations and Currie Cup Previews

This article was written for the CitiGaming supplement of the Citizen Newspaper and was first published on the 6th of August 2010.

Brent Graham is a blogger on www.goodforthegame.co.za and presents a sports betting radio show every Thursday night from 22h00 – 22h30 on 1485AM Radio Today or Channel 169 of the DSTV Audio Bouquet and to get on his free weekly e-mail list just send a message to brent@goodforthegame.co.za titled “Best Bets”..

You can follow him on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/brentgraham or get on his mailing list by dropping him a line at brent@goodforthegame.co.za