Lance Armstrong a hero to many has also been accused over the years of thinking “he is bigger than the game” or in other words that cycling needs him more than he needs cycling.

While I would not for a second kid myself that sports betting needs me more than I need it, I am forced to look back on a moment where I was so convinced I was correct that I threw all of my betting rules out of the window and now face a loss in this years Tour de France despite doing really well in my stage by stage betting.

It all happened a day before the Tour started and I spotted a Green Jersey match bet between Petacchi and Ciolek. The 36 year old Italian Petacchi was the favourite and while I did not doubt his speed (you pick up points in this competition through doing well in sprints) I thought back to the mid 2000’s when he won stages only to bail out the moment the road tilted upwards.

I assumed we would see more of the same and highlighted a 10 unit play (my maximum bet) on the Goodforthegame site. I was so sure that Petacchi would not finish though that I took a 50 unit bet (5 X my usual maximum) thinking that I simply needed Ciolek to finish the Tour to collect.

3 weeks later and the “Italian Stallion” is climbing like never before and despite the odd rumour that he would abandon in the Alps he now looks likely to win the entire classification, never mind beat Ciolek.

My bet barring illness or accident is dead and buried and I find myself tossing and turning at night trying to figure out where I went wrong?

The bottom line is that my reasoning and logic were good but due to my arrogance at the time I was unable to comprehend that I may have overlooked something and that Petacchi in his twilight years may be looking for more than just stage glory.

A large bet was perhaps justified but an out of control strike such as the one I placed will see me pay the price for not respecting the boundaries I had set myself. In short my overconfidence as is often the case was my downfall.

One thing you can bet on is that the Punting Gods are laughing now!

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This article was written for the CitiGaming supplement of the Citizen Newspaper and was first published on the 22nd of July 2010.

Brent Graham is a blogger on www.goodforthegame.co.za and presents a sports betting radio show every Thursday night from 22h00 – 22h30 on 1485AM Radio Today or Channel 169 of the DSTV Audio Bouquet.

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