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 I have in a previous column coined the term “bookmakers lag” being the sluggish reaction of bookmakers to certain conditions which offers the alert punter an opportunity to capitalise and bank some short term profits.
I am afraid that after this weekend I need to acknowledge that “punters lag” is now a term that needs to be added to the betting dictionary.
The year end rugby internationals are upon us and having made good money in the Currie Cup I should have been full of confidence heading into the North v South battles. Instead I was weary as in recent years I have struggled to convert my Currie Cup form into November profits and the same can be said for the transition from Super 14 to the mid year internationals where I have traditionally handed plenty of cash back to the bookmakers.
All the talk in the Goodforthegame forum last week centered around a conservative approach but when I saw some of the spreads the layers were offering previous learning’s were tossed aside and I climbed in with every intention of making the bookmakers pay.
Once again though I underestimated the forward power of the Northern Hemisphere teams such as Wales and England while also downplaying the effect that the weather and underfoot conditions can have. As the dust settled on the opening weekend of fixtures I was left to ponder a dent in my account balances and reflect on another year where I have failed to adapt to conditions despite having identified the required mindset change upfront.
Indeed it must have been a good weekend for the odds setters as Ireland were backed in from 1/1 to 6/10 favourites for their match against the Boks. Punters like me read too much into the Bok team selection and failed to note (or if we noted it we shrugged it off) that the Irish tight 5 were missing a couple of stalwarts.
I have seldom seen so much money for one side to the exclusion of another and even hardened Bok supporters were looking to make a quick buck by opposing their team.
They nearly blew it but South Africa held on for the win and I can imagine many a punter with mixed emotions as his country stood firm while his hard earned cash went into the Bookmakers Christmas Party fund.
This article was written for the CitiGaming supplement of the Citizen Newspaper and was first published on the 11th of November 2010.
Brent Graham is a blogger on www.goodforthegame.co.za and presents a sports betting radio show every Thursday night from 22h00 – 22h30 on 1485AM Radio Today or Channel 169 of the DSTV Audio Bouquet and to get on his free weekly e-mail list just send a message to brent@goodforthegame.co.za titled “Best Bets”..
You can follow him on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/brentgraham or get on his mailing list by dropping him a line at brent@goodforthegame.co.za
Brent Graham writes a weekly betting blog written for the CitiGaming section of the Citizen newspaper
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