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 5 weeks in it is time to take my 1st Super Rugby report card home to Mom!
Match Betting – Fixed Odds
Brent has started the tournament well with 4 out of 5 of his Best Bets* arriving. He has proved adept at adapting to adverse weather conditions and particularly enjoys the over and under total points market. His strategy of handicapping the games himself ahead of the bookmakers appears to be paying dividends although as witnessed by the Lions defeat this weekend it is hardly flawless.
Verdict: B
Match Betting – Spreads
This tournament has seen Brent ride a spreads rollercoaster of note but despite some shockers he is holding is head up high and has made some money. His tendency of backing the Reds and Stormers shirt numbers proved costly in the opening weeks but he regained some of those losses when the Reds put the Rebels away this past weekend. Brent has shown more discipline than he did in 2010 but he is still prone to the odd bet just for the sake of it. He needs to cut this habit out and play big only when he perceives the value is there. I was particularly impressed that he changed from his intention to buy Lions shirts to a sell of total shirts when he saw the weather conditions this weekend.
Verdict: B
Long Term Bets
10 units Crusaders at 7/2 and 5 units Crusaders at 4/1 (after week 3)
This one looked in trouble early but as things stand the prices Brent snaffled look very healthy. A long way to go but I am more than happy with his progress on this one as the Crusaders are currently trading at 17/10.
10 units Lions/Cheetahs at 11/10
This bet looked to be in cracking shape after week 4 but a shock win by the Cheetahs in Sydney and the unexpected loss of the Lions to the Force means it is actually trailing on points difference at this stage. All is not lost and I still have a feeling he may be celebrating but the next few weeks are bound to be tense.
5 units Stormers Top SA Conference at 5/2
There was little movement in the Stormers price until this past weekend where they beat the Bulls. They are now narrow favourites at 17/10 and while it is too early to get excited they have done what is asked of him and Brent can be pleased with the effort.
5 units Reds Top Australian Team at 33/10
Another bet that looked in trouble but came back well in week 5 when hot favourites the Waratahs were beaten by the Cheetahs with the Reds bagging an easy 5 points at home to the Rebels. They now sneak favouritism at 1/1 in what looks a 2 horse race with the Waratahs.
10 units Lions/Rebels at 10/11 (posted in forum)
Nothing between the sides at this stage but the Rebels do look as if they are going to struggle and Brent has no reason to be concerned at this stage.
2.5 units Lions outright at 200/1
Consider this one a 2.5 unit donation to the World Sports Betting Christmas party.
Verdict: B
Overall Rating: B
Conclusion
Brent appears to have matured and has started the tournament off well although he is no more than a couple of poor games up at this stage. He continues to focus on the spreads and for this reason he cannot afford a lapse in concentration at any stage.
I would like to urge Brent to turn the overall B rating into an A by the end of the 2nd term.
*BEST BET MAILING LIST – Get on it!
I send out a weekly e-mail with my best bet as well as links to the major previews of the weekend. It’s a free service and can hopefully add some value to your weekend so e-mail me now at brent@goodforthegame.co.za with the heading “Best Bets” and I will include you.
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