He has been called the Barry Ronge of South African sports betting and here Brent Graham takes a look at what the bookmakers are saying ahead of the 2010 Academy Awards.

Since the birth of my daughter Angela 7 years ago and subsequent arrival of my son Robert I think I have made 3 trips to the movie houses and also a couple of ill feted visits to the drive in (don’t let anyone tell you it is a fun outing with 2 screaming kids).

It is no surprise then that when I scan down the list of movies dominating this years Oscars I can barely claim to have heard of any of them. Avatar is the exception, although despite all the hype I have not gone to the effort of organising a babysitter and taking my long suffering wife along to watch it.

Why then am I writing an article about the Oscars? Simple really, when you place betting odds next to something I immediately perk up and since stumbling upon the Oscars betting I have been googling frantically trying to get bits of information that may give me an edge over the bookmakers.

The first thing that hits you though is that in horse racing terms many of the sections have favourites that appear to be “home and hosed”. Jeff Bridges for example is a 1/6 (you get a 16% return on investment) shot to capture the best actor award for his performance in Crazy Heart and Morgan Freeman can be backed at 20/1 to cause an upset for his portrayal of Madiba in Invictus.

Other very short priced favourites include Christoph Waltz who is 1/33 to win best supporting actor for his part in the hit move Inglourious Basterds a category which has Matt Damon a rank outsider at 40/1 while Mo’nique is a 1/20 market leader in the female equivalent.

So then are there any competitive markets worth having a punt on?

Interestingly the most prized Oscar of them all “Best Picture” sees some very tight betting indeed. Avatar was all the rage when the nominations were first announced and opened at 5/10 but steady support for The Hurt Locker has seen the former displace it at the top of the boards. The Hurt Locker is now an 8/10 favourite and Avatar supporters can get 11/10 about its chances of winning the big one. District 9 by the way is a 100/1 outsider so you can safely ignore the radio shows that are trying to build up its chances.

Another interesting one is the “Best Actress” where a lot of overseas pundits feel that Sandra Bullock has been overrated for her role in The Blind Side. When the betting opened she was a 9/10 pick ahead of Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) but her price has shortened to 8/13 (a 61% return on investment) with GreatOdds and there is now 2/1 on offer about Streep who opened at 11/8.

Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) has shortened dramatically in the best director market and is now a 1/5 favourite having been 9/10 alongside James Cameron (Avatar) when the betting opened. The latter is now 7/2 to take home the tiny gold statue and in my uneducated view there must be some betting value there?

VERDICT

I cannot write a preview without sharing my opinion even if in this case it is a highly uninformed one so here are my bets for the big night.

I am going with a couple of value plays as there is usually an upset or two on the night and perhaps we can catch one.

1 unit Meryl Streep Best Actress at 2/1 with Betxchange, World Sports Betting or Mbet

0.5 unit James Cameron Best Director at 7/2 with Mbet

Betxchange also offer betting on how many Oscars a movie will get and Avatar for example is 7/10 to get 4 or less and 11/10 to grab 5 or more.

Whether or not you have a nibble enjoy the occasion and let’s hope for short witty speeches rather than the long soppy variety!

Goodforthegame is a website always interested in the betting angle and our specialty is Rugby, Football, Cricket and Golf previews – check out our Super 14, EPL and PSL previews at www.goodforthegame.co.za .

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