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 Last week I touched on the much used term “betting value” and as an example used the Tri Nations outright market where Australia were on offer at 13/2 when I felt their genuine odds were closer to 4/1.
A week later and with the Boks having beaten the All Blacks the Tri Nations race is a lot closer and the question those of us who took the 13/2 are now asking is whether we should be locking in a profit or at least covering our stake.
My current book is R1000 down on Australia to win R6500 and looking around at the early betting the bad news is that the All Blacks are firm favourites to lift the trophy at 6/10. This means we have to give up a fair amount of our profit if we choose to take some cover and possibilities include:
Putting R1670 down on New Zealand at 6/10 which would see us break square if the All Blacks get up and show a R4830 profit if the Wallabies get the win.
We could position our book further towards New Zealand taking say 3000/5010 meaning an All Black win would realise a R2000 profit (R3000 less R1000 original stake) but now an Australian win will only put us R1490 up (R6500 less R5010)
From a position of strength we clearly have options but personally I am going to do neither of the above. I will instead wait for the match to start and hope that the Wallabies begin quickly in front of a passionate home crowd. I will be watching the betting markets closely and if New Zealand go bigger than 1/1 to lift the cup then I will look to cover my stake and ensure a profit perhaps by taking an even R2000.
The best case scenario for me would be if the Wallabies get more than a score clear meaning I could probably get a bet on New Zealand at say +4.5 in running. By taking R2000/R2200 of this I would still show a R1000 profit if the All Blacks come back to win and if the Wallabies win by 5 or more my profit would be R4300 (R6500 less the R2200 handicap bet on New Zealand). If though Australia win by 1-4 points I would collect both bets showing a R8500 profit!
Bottom line – come on you Wallabies!
This article was written for the CitiGaming supplement of the Citizen Newspaper and was first published on the 25th of August 2011.
Brent Graham is a blogger on www.goodforthegame.co.za and presents a sports betting radio show every Thursday night from 22h00 – 22h30 on 1485AM Radio Today or Channel 169 of the DSTV Audio Bouquet and to get on his free weekly e-mail list just send a message to brent@goodforthegame.co.za titled “Best Bets”.
You can follow him on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/brentgraham or get on his mailing list by dropping him a line at brent@goodforthegame.co.za
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