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 When sports punters get chatting the word “value” gets thrown about a lot.
Personally I believe the word is over used and often misunderstood with punters often equating value to price. In other words if Liverpool and Manchester United were playing at home against a couple of mid table teams and Liverpool were 1/1 and Manchester United 8/10 there are those that say Liverpool offer the better value.
It is correct that they offer the better return but without understanding a lot more about their opponents, team selections and current form it is impossible to say which price is the better value and indeed if the 8/10 United should be 6/10 and the 1/1 Liverpool was a true reflection of the odds then clearly the United price is the better value.
I believe the Tri Nations has thrown up an example of good value this week and as I am always on the lookout for an edge I will be having a punt on Australia to win at 13/2* with Sportsbet.
I concede that New Zealand are worthy favourites but lets take a look at what Australia’s true odds of winning the title might be?
They need the Boks to beat the All Blacks and they then need to beat their biggest rivals in Brisbane. There are a couple of other mathematical possibilities involving bonus points but the scenario outlined is the Wallabies most likely route to lifting the trophy.
In Port Elizabeth the Boks are likely to be around 13/10 for the win and looking ahead to Brisbane I don’t believe the Australians will start at much bigger than 13/10 themselves.
If we backed South Africa and then lumped all of our money (stake + winnings) onto Australia to beat the All Blacks the double would work out to a shade under 9/2 or 4.5/1. The 13/2 or 6.5/1 is thus (in my view) a good price as I believe that the teams may even start fairly close to level in the betting next week given the travel factor the All Blacks will need to contend with.
I am by no means saying that Australia are good things to win the tournament but I do believe that they are the “value” play and on that note it looks as though I will be shouting for the Boks this weekend although not necessarily for the same reason as my mates.
*Note the odds have since come into 4/1
This article was written for the CitiGaming supplement of the Citizen Newspaper and was first published on the 18th of August 2011.
Brent Graham is a blogger on www.goodforthegame.co.za and presents a sports betting radio show every Thursday night from 22h00 – 22h30 on 1485AM Radio Today or Channel 169 of the DSTV Audio Bouquet and to get on his free weekly e-mail list just send a message to brent@goodforthegame.co.za titled “Best Bets”.
You can follow him on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/brentgraham or get on his mailing list by dropping him a line at brent@goodforthegame.co.za
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