Early doors yet but I would seriously fancy Connacht +10 and Ulster +12.

Northampton v Munster Saturday night -

http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/europea … eview.html

Looking for Saints to get some revenge in front of big home crowd, Northampton -4.5 the pick.

respect to Connacht's handicap record but this match has way more riding on it than any of the pool games so far, Quins won by 7 at the toughest plays in Europe at Toulouse and a trip to Galway won't frighten them too much.

Bookmakers across Europe and SA have been waiting on team news for around half of the matches this weekend and many games only getting priced up today. I'm looking, perhaps unwisely!, at the spreads in a few of these, as am expecting some free-scoring in a couple matches. Will post which ones later today.

What is the colour on Treviso Saracens?

Am I right to say that Treviso drew with Hairspreys and beat Biarritz at home? They are +10 for this game, although they got hammered away to Saracens I must say that looks tempting. What do Saracens need to qualify/secure home QF?

Thank you SP, will check the teams and decide but at the moment I will be hoping to back Treviso at +11 if I can find it.

Correct South, quite a few Permuatations following tonights rounds and as you said Toulouse and Quins have to aim for Binus point to try and get home Quarter and to qualify.

Whilst I have my Cap bet down for Quins, I am going into the spreads in Toulouse game, I am going to buy Match Shirts @ 49 for moment. Toulouse have choosen quite an attacking starting side with Pointerand at 12 and Nyanga @ 6. Just in my opinion these 2 mean they are goin to up the tempo and try go for Bonus point. What it also means is with new 12 and Beaxis at 10, could mean a bit of defensive woes as well which I am hoping Tindal and QQera can exploit and maybe get a few trys as well for Cherry and Whites.
Also looking at stats neither Toulouse or C&W have had a problem scoring trys away and at home respectively.

SO hoping for a decent game of rugby, according to weather supposed to be clear and glad MacCalister out honestly, I think her try's to do to much himself and doesn't allow the dangerous back to run at defences. Also see to try scorer for Toulouse in Clerc wearing 22. Lets hope for a couple from him. 

Yip, I saw that South. Full Strength Side I thought for Montpellier. Any side with Trin Duc I think is good. I rate that block at 10. Unfortuantely we not getting that game televised here, we got Boland vs Stormers to look forward to. I am so P'd about that.   

Anyway looking forward to sides been announced, especially Munster. Sorry but I have gone againest your -4.5 for Saints, I just think Munster need the win to stand any chance for home Semi and there forwards I think will be to powerful for Saints, with them missing Lawes and Wood. Anyway I am just looking forward to good game of rugby. I took +5.5 so lets hope for 5 point win for Saints.   

Hi KT, the way I read is that it's 3rd, 4th and 5th best placed runner-ups, so a 3rd place in any pool would mean no more European rugby. Got this from scrum -

"The introduction of three teams who have finished as Pool runners-up in that seasons' Heineken Cup (the third, fourth and fifth ranked Heineken Cup Pool runners-up), to meet the five Challenge Cup Pool winners, will enhance both the quality and profile of the Challenge Cup knock-out matches"

So in reality, Leicester need a 5 pointer and Clermont to not pick up anything to progress to Amlin (as even a point for Clermont would mean Leicester cannot finnish higher than 3rd).

taking a klap tonight, sorry to any followers, no excuses, wrong calls.

Rough night last night, took a beating in both games.  Almost promised myself to stay away until Super Rugby, but these two games caught my eye.

Ulster +11.5, I know Clermont is good at home but for Ulster to loose by that much and miss out on a home quarter seems highly unlikely. Ulster has been on a good run and I think they can actually keeping to a losing bonus point.

Cardiff -13.5, Racing Metro has been awful this season and going into this game without Hernandez with Cardiff having the opportunity to top the pool if they get I full house I am going to go for Cardiff on this one.

Any thoughts, or other good ones I'm missing?

morning lads,

Right am over last nights disappointment and ready to hit back today!

Those 2 results have created some very interesting permutations -

Northampton - now have outside chance of HC 1/4 final. Need a 5 pointer but then need to hope Ospreys or Biarritz don't to same, or hope Edinburgh or Cardiff don't get a point, or hope Ulster beat Clermont. If 2 of those go there way, they can make it.

Biarritz/Ospreys - HUGE match now. Winner with a 5 pointer need Edinburgh or Cardiff to lose OR Clermont loss. One of those happens and they win with 5 then they're thru.

Saints will know their position better by ko as Ulster v Clermont game is before. If Clermont win it becomes even more unlikely for Saints but they'll still have hope no matter what as the other pool games concerned are tomorrow.

Like the Saints more and more, only concern South is that the previous MK Don's game was postponed due to Frozen pitch. Do you think this will affect the game at all or have damaged the pitch.

I was also looking at buying Shirts for Saints at 23 but reading that a bit nervous. Will wait to see pitch conditions I think before taking that.

Well spotted, King. That is definitely worth having a go! Fully agree with the analysis

King you have me well and truly on board! All of a sudden looking forward to watching the game

Looking for the following spreads play in Leinster game -

Montpellier playing into a fierce wind 1st half, it will be a real stuggle. Hoping they are tryless at HT and reckon they might be a cracking bet on shirts at HT if bookies keep it low. Let's see how 1st half goes anyway, but looking to buy Montpol shirts @ HT.

King wrote:

Today Boland v Stormers (-3 Sportingbet)

I don't know if it is only me, but this is a dead certainty. Stormers is the franchise team, and although they are resting most of the senior players, they can't lose this one, Boland beating the Stormers, that isn't possible. The Stormers starting line up for today includes a couple of players that has played Super Rugby: Gerhard vd Heever, Danie Poolman, Burton Francis, Bolla Conradie, De Kock Steenkamp, Frans Malherbe. Throw that into a couple of the huge upcoming prospects of Nizaam Carr, Eben Etzebeth, Reuben Johannes and then take into account the bench with Juan de Jongh, Rohan Kitshoff, Tiaan Liebenberg, Nick Koster, Brok Harris, Gio Aplon, Marcel Brache and Nic Groom then this looks a quality side, or a team that is supposed to win a First Division side easily.

For the Boland, the most notable players are Alistair Kettledas and Ricardo Croy. They have lost most of their players that won the First Division, so this is another building process for them. Bolla will be sorely missed, so this for me is only going one way. Remember, most of the Stormers team are playing for positions, and with a bunch of young guys they will be really throwing everything at Boland to have a place in the Super Rugby squad.

Stormers -3 Sportingbet. Do it, I know you want to.

King you beauty!!!!!! Well played mate

Hope some of you followed me in taking Connacht and Ulster, had Leinster earlier too, was supremely confident on all 3. Unsure about Munster but I will prob take them at +5, think may well win the game and if they do lose I dont think it will be by much.

But nevertheless BOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

Stiff Brent, only seen your post after game re spreads bet. The spread bookies really tight today, not giving anything away. Trying to find some spreads value in Saints game but struggling.

South I am high on Saints shirts at 23 but the way I am betting at the moment it may as well be Roullette

joined in running lads @ 20 on high Saints skirts.

Sorry guys, what is the Shirt value of a penalty try? 8?

I got to be honest, I am counting on the scrum dominance eventually wearing them down and hopefully ending in a small profit. Saints till need the 4 trys to guarantee Amlin Cup. COme on the Saints. Would it be to much hoping far Ben Foden going over for a brace? 

GET IN!!!! Try from 23, there is a god!!

Deserved result on the shirts there KT and Brent, ref was poor. Well done lads.

Overall a bleak weekend on the handicaps and am delighted there's a break next week on Euro rugby competitions. I've been slipping the previous 2 weeks to around a 50 to 60% strike rate which is poor enough as it is, and then this weekend it all went wrong, 3 blanks. Will be good to re-assess on tactics, and also very happy to see the first run out from a Super Rugby team today, can't wait for Super 15.

kt6747 wrote:

I will buy that man a Heineken. What a great try.   

Saved my weekend - was on for 2 units so a 46 unit swing with that try - slightly up for the weekend now 

I've got KT to thank there, as his comments re scrum dominance persuaded me to wait, was spot on, pity ref didn't read the script as should have been a Munster yellow for 2nd pen try.

Update on qualification status for tomorrows games -

win for Sarries guarantees home 1/4 final - no need to push for 5 pointer,

Cardiff only need to match Edinburgh result to top qualify (as they picked up a bonus pt when losing to Edinburgh and won the home game),

Edinburgh win and Cardiff don't match result (4 or 5 pts) = Edinburgh home 1/4 final,

Cardiff win and Edinburgh don't better result = Cardiff home 1/4 final,

Biarritz v Ospreys - if either team wins with a bonus pt, and Edinburgh or Cardiff lose - Biarritz or Ospreys could qualify for last spot for HC 1/4 final.

A win without bonus pt might even be enough for Ospreys or Biarritz to secure that last 1/4 final spot, should Edinburgh or Cardiff lose with no losing bonus pt and Edinburgh don't score any tries (and Ospreys or Biarritz get a couple tries themselves).

So big game tomorrow - Ospreys v Biarritz, will be checking out for spreads tomorrow.

Today im going to bet:

*Ospreys +7.5

*Racing-metro +13.5

nice one KT, just got home from football, see shirts finished @ 41? Profit is profit!

Bishof nice one on Biarritz, if I was home today I reckon I would have played high their shirts, gutted as it would have been a big result.

Had a great weekend, all of the following came in in individual bets, wish they had HEC ev weekend:

Tim Visser anytime tryscorer, Ulster +12, Connacht +9, Leinster -13, Munster +5, Treviso +8, Racing Metro +12 and Man City to win at 11/10 (both in live betting).