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Super 14 - Spreads Experiment

Super 14 - Spreads Experiment

On the back of last years Currie Cup shirt selling experiment I am doing the same again in the S14 to see if we can unearth any profitable patterns.

Going to sell shirst for 1 unit (virtual unit) in each game and lets see how we go. Will post a more detailed explanation on the weekend for those new to spreads.

Game 1 Blues Hurricanes low at 53

Brent Graham
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Re: Super 14 - Spreads Experiment

I think a 26-29 unit profit in game 1.

Low at 48 in Brumbies game - personally I fancy a few tries in this one.

Brent Graham
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I will pot a wrap up later but another 21 unit profit in game 2.

Low at 52 in Cheetahs Bulls game

Brent Graham
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Low at 50 in Crusaders game. Will sumarise soon but hit stoploss last night I think

Brent Graham
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A couple of pick numbers went over in that last game - pleased I am only betting virtual units at this stage.

Low at 48 in Tah's game.

Brent Graham
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Low on both the Lions and Sharks games at 53

Brent Graham
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Brent what do you mean "low in shirts"? Have no idea what you talking about, I am probably the only one who doesnt and im exposing my betting maturity.

You can observe a lot by just watching.

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Schooms, no you are certainly not alone. Will have a full report with explanations on site by Monday.

Have not done the recon for week 1 yet but think the experiment may be slightly up after a really rocky ride.

Brent Graham
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Full explanation of this experiment to follow but in the inerim here are the results for week1:

Blues game +29
Force game +21
Cheetahs game -40
Crusaders game -40
Reds game-3
Lions game +3
Sharks game +40

First week profit 10 units

Comment: the rule changes have certainly ensured some running rugby and I feel there may actually be money to be made going high in selected games . The Reds, Blues and Lions look full of running but as they fall out of contention so their defence will weaken.

It was a volatile opening week and in the end probably a bit unfortunate not to be further ahead because there were a number of substitute tries.

Brent Graham
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Low at 49 in Highlanders v Blues game

Brent Graham
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Soe serious high number in the last game with only 5 tries but a final total of 77.

Thats 28 units lost in game 1 and we are low at 54 in the Reds v Crusaders game.

Brent Graham
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An 18 unit loss in the Reds game, we low at 57 and 60 in the Sharks and Lions games respectivly.

Brent Graham
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This tournament has started very differently to the experiments I have run previously and it will be interesting to see if it is just a short term set back for sellers or whether the new rules have changed the game and the bookmakers quotes are not yet taking this into account (bookmakers lag)

Won 34 in the Sharks game but did the maximum in Lions game. I will work out later what the Lions spread was but must have been around 250? Very few low numbers scoring tries and the backs having a field day.

Low at 57 in Canes game and if conditions are good I think we are in for a hiding and I will likely be buying in my personal capacity.

Brent Graham
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Low at 71 in Bulls game and 68 in Stormers game

Brent Graham
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Sorry forgot to link to this explantion of spreads http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/rugby/s … iment.html

54 units down so far (thought it would be more) and we are low at 68 in Saders v Sharks game

Brent Graham
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Some late tries meant only a 9 unit profit in the last - low at 57 in Stormers game

Brent Graham
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And the sellers claw back with stop loss 40 units in the Stormers game.

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We are low at 83 in the Hurricanes Lions game although with conditions good I think there will be a number of tries in this one.

Brent Graham
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Low at 60 in Reds game - conditions poor

Brent Graham
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really surprised bookies offered 60 on Reds game given the shocking conditions, I would have been all over the low if I got my backside into gear on spreads!!

Were they just slow in adjusting Brent or is that a normal quote for poor playing conditions?

southpaw
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Slow in adjusting and so was I - went high at 63 without checking conditions  sad

Brent Graham
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ah sorry just read that now on the other thread, was still catching up! You never know,maybe a card or 2 to open up game.

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The forwards are all bundling over today - low at 65 in Force game. Not too bad in the end South!

Brent Graham
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Low at 65 in this one (cheetahs)

Brent Graham
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We were low at 67 in Bulls game - all in all a good comeback for sellers this weekend and summary will follow early in the week.

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A great weekend for sellers with an 83 unit profit over the 7 games. It would have been much bigger but for hitting stop loss in the Bulls game as at that point 123 units had been gained in 6 matches.

Overall the experiment now sits 29 units up.

Brent Graham
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We are low at 72 in the opening match between the Chiefs and Reds although personally I am hoping the experiment takes a knock here.

Brent Graham
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Low at64 in the Brumbies game

Brent Graham
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Will confirm at the end of the weekend but I think a combined 43 unit profit on the first 2 games.

Low at 58 in the Crusaders v Blues clash.

Brent Graham
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Another 17 units to the sellers.

Low at 55 in the Waratahs v Sharks game

Brent Graham
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Low at 55 in Stormers game and 65 in Cheetahs game

Brent Graham
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A fascinating weekend for the spreads experiment as for the second week running defences dominated and selling shirts would have delivered a profit in each match.

In total 106 units profit on the week taking the running total to +135 units and the evidence is stacking up to suggest that sellers have a better chance of winning in the long run.

Brent Graham
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Will be interesting to see how this weekend goes - low at 57 in game 1 the Chiefs v the Crusaders

Brent Graham
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Made a 24 unit profit in game 1 and low at 68 in Tahs Lions game

Brent Graham
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Hit stop loss of 40 units in Tahs game and low at 60 in Brumbies game

Brent Graham
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Bounce back with a 40 unit win in the Brumbies Sharks game and low at 76 in the Bulls game and 53 in the Stormers game

Brent Graham
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Not a great weekend for sellers with stop loss in the Bulls game a a biggish knock in the Stormers match. Low at 63 in Reds v Force match.

Summary and wrap will follow Monday

Brent Graham
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Week 5 was a bad one for sellers and the experiment took a 70 unit loss with 4 of the 6 games favouring shirts buyers and stop loss hit in both the Waratahs and Bulls games.

Overall the experiment now sits 65 units up and more bets to follow on Friday.

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Low at 60 in the Blues v Brumbies game

Brent Graham
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Some big numbers there and a 27 unit hit for the experiment in game 1 - things starting to level out again.

Brent Graham
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Oops forgot about no 20 going over for the Brumbies so stop loss for sellers in game 1.

Brent Graham
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Low at 86 in the Bulls Hurricanes game

Brent Graham
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Brent on the road, asked me to post that the Saders v Lions game was low at 88 and the Highlanders v Sharks low at 58

mackem
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Thanks Mackem missed both games but looking at scores I think that sellers would have clawed some units back.

Low at 72 in the Force v Waratahs game and I am amazed at the spread. See the Super 14 thread for more:

Brent Graham
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Low at 55 in Stormers game, sorry forgot to post

Brent Graham
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Been one of those weeks and no chance to even do last weeks recon yet but will try tomorrow.

We low at 78 in game 1 the Highlanders v Lions - that seems a very high quote and I may sell in my personal capacity as well.

Brent Graham
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A 19 unit loss in the opener I believe - low at 68 in Brumbies v Chiefs game

Brent Graham
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A 20 unit profit in game 2 and low at 73 in the Reds v Cheetahs game

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Another 28 units for sellers and conditions certainly assisted.

Low at 62 in the Hurricanes v Sharks match

Brent Graham
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Low at 65 in the Waratahs v Blues match

Brent Graham
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Low at 75 in the final game - Force v Bulls

Brent Graham
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Brent's in the middle of nowhere and battling for signal but sent me a message to say low at 57 in the Hurricanes v Crusaders game.

mackem
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and low at 55 in Force v Stormers

mackem
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Thanks Mackem, low at 79 in the Blues game and 65 in the Chiefs Highlanders match.

Will do full recon and sum up at the end of the weekend

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Low at 65 in Waratahs game

Brent Graham
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Low at 53 in the Sharks v Reds game

Brent Graham
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Finally got around to doing the recon for the last 3 weeks and some fascinating results.

The last 3 weeks have yielded 237 units profit for sellers taking the experiments running total to 302 units profit after 51 games.

At R100 a unit you would be sitting a handy 30k up just past the halfway stage of the competition.

Instead old lab rat here has been going high in his personal capacity  hmm

Brent Graham
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would love to have that 30k up position! smile

southpaw
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LOL you are not alone there South

Brent Graham
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Got an sms from Brent to say we are low at 66 in the Chiefs Bulls match

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