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S14 week 3 early prices

S14 week 3 early prices

Brent will update this thread with his thoughts later, in the meantime, here is Brent's wrap of week 2 with betting moves in the outright winner market

http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/rugby/s … pdate.html

Edited By: Brent Graham
Feb-23-10 03:21:37

Was that half a million win or place on Lucky Dan....?

mackem
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

Thanks Mackem, GreatOdds site was under maintanence when I did the betting update and there is 11/1 Chiefs for those interested.

Mbet no doubt has a host of guys on site waiting for those early prices - if I was handicapping the games here is where I would go:

Crusaders -6.5 Sharks
Stormers -3.5 Brumbies
Hurricanes -16.5 Lions
Reds -5.5 Blues
Force +7.5 Chiefs
Cheetahs -7.5 Highlanders
Bulls -10.5 Waratahs

Those were my first instincts without much thought put in so will be interesting to see Mbets opening calls.

Brent Graham
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

I will climb in if the Saders are -6.5, I reckon it will be closer to 11 or 12. McCaw on the bench, Saders need a bounce back and Sharks lack flair this year

Scared Money don't make Money! BOOOOOM!

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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

Brumbies are +9.5, that seems too high. Cant see the Brumbies losing by more than 7 and Im on the Brumbies +9.5. They will want to put in a good performance after the Loftus Lashing!

Scared Money don't make Money! BOOOOOM!

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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

They agree with you RB and are -11.5 - I feel the Sharks may get the cap but no reason to rush as price will last.

Other caps

Stormers -9.5 - too big in my opinion - Brumbies +9.5 5 units

Hurricanes -18.5 - probably about where it will start

Reds -5.5 - as expected

Others to follow but Brumbies the early value in my opinion.

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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

We were posting together RB but pleased we aligned there.

Cheetahs -4.5 looks fair value at home to Highlanders (5 units)

They are -11.5 Bulls

Brent Graham
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

Yip, Brumbies +9.5 too high to resist.
Think Reds flatered and Blues +5.5 too high

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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

I also like the Cheetahs -4.5

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RuggaBugga
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

Agree RB, Cheetahs look good at -4.5

Was that half a million win or place on Lucky Dan....?

mackem
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

I also like the Cheetahs -4.5

Justin
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

Agree Brumbies plus 9.5 looks way too big, Crusaders about right as we expect some big improvement if they are to feature this season, having said that the Sharks will also be under big pressure to improve. I thought Blues plus was big as I reckon it should be closer to choice mainly as a result of the loss of James Horwill, he is their "engine room". Nothing else really stands out just yet. Was hoping for 5/1 Crusaders outright :-(

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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

Haha! Coil, if there was 5/1 Crusaders outright available I would put everything I own plus whatever I can borrow on that. Surely they won't lose against the Sharks in Christchurch.

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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

Force v Chiefs is up at +6.5

Stormers v Brumbies has closed so punters have clearly had a feeding frenzy on that one, I imagine it will reopen around -4.5 Stormers.

Coil very surprised Crusaders were not closer to 5/1 but not sure that I agree with you and Hanrick on their chances.

We all agree they were poor but my worry is that aside from Jack and McCaw returning what else do they have in the tank? Their backline actually looks pretty ordinary and they don't seem to have a real game breaker outside of Carter who looks a little out of sorts at the moment.

I have a double and straight bet on them but personally I will not be pressing but rather look to bulk up on my Bulls and Stormers interest rather.

I would be more than happy were I to be proved wrong on this but would rather back the Crusaders not to make the final 4 than to win at this stage.

Brent Graham
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

Thanks for that Brent, I've just shot the dog, cat, budgie and waiting now for the missus to get home !! Hanrick I meant 5/1 for the tournament not match of course. Hope you're wrong Brent, traditionally they are slow starters and am hoping they are in that mode again. I agree their centre's look ordinary while full back is pretty useless at this stage but I reckon the re-introduction of McCaw and Jack will be huge and am praying they improve in the backline as the tournament progresses. It is also very early in the season and reckon there will be many more upsets along the way.

coil
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

I see I misunderstood Coil's comment on the Crusaders outright. I thought he meant 5/1 outirght on the game against the Sharks, not 5/1 to win the Super 14.

Brent, I agree that the Crusaders don't look that good. The same could be said for the Sharks however and I think the Crusaders will beat the Sharks.

I've had a look at the Bulls' remaining fixtures and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up on top of the log after week 15.

hanrick
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

LOL Hanrick now I can see why you were going to lump all you had on it. Agree the Crusaders should win but I think it will be tight and scrappy and not sure I would take -11.5 at this stage.

Coil hope the missus gets home soon before you change your mind lol

Hope I am wrong on this one mate!

Brent Graham
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

Greatodds out with 4 of the games' handicaps (all tie in play):

Crusaders -14
Stormers -5
Cheetahs -7
Bulls -15

The Sharks at +14 (at evens) looks good for me. Expect the Crusaders to win, by I think they'll win by less than 14.

hanrick
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

Agree Hanrick I am with you on that one. Stormers -5 looks about right

Brent Graham
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

At 11.5 I was undecided, but Sharks +14 at Evens looks good, Im with you boys. 5 units

Scared Money don't make Money! BOOOOOM!

RuggaBugga
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

Here is an interesting stat from the 2009 S14.

The Crusaders beat the handicap in only 4 of the 14 games they played last year! They have the worst handicap win ratio from last year at 28.57%, whats more interesting is that the Sharks top the 2009 table with a handicap win ratio of 61.54%. Tells you one thing, bookies pay way too much respect to the Crusaders!!!

Based onlyon 2009 data, Sharks +14 is the way too go ...

The Sharks are woeful this year but surely they wont lose by 14 this weekend

Scared Money don't make Money! BOOOOOM!

RuggaBugga
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Re: S14 week 3 early prices

nice to read some positive comments about Sharks, we're getting a bashing everywhere else!!lol

I try not to punt the Sharks (can't take the double pain when they lose!) but agree, +14 looks nice.

Like the look of Highlanders at +7, that's probably going against the flow but think they could surprise the Cheetahs.

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