Home Forum Goodforthegame Forum Sports Betting Forum Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread
Get Adobe Flash player

Welcome to the Goodforthegame Sports Betting Discussion Forum for all your tips and opinions on current sporting events. New users, register your free forum account here

Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Bookies have all come out with caps, averages of:
Chiefs +4 v Saders
Tahs -15 v Lions
Brumbies -9 v Sharks
Bulls -20 v Highlanders
Stormers -7 v Canes
Reds -9 v Force

I am on the Saders, Highlanders +23.5 and Canes +8.5

The cap covering tables are as follows:
Top 4 teams with 75% cap covering are Saders, Lions, Reds and Stormers.
Bottom side is the Force with 0%. Other teams at the bottom are the Highlanders, Sharks and Tahs with 25% cap covering. 2 of top coverers (Lions, Reds) play 2 of the bottom (Tahs, Force) so if it was that simple then the bets would be:
Lions +16.5 at BetX
Reds -8.5 at Mbet

I like the Lions as the Tahs are the least entertaining side in the S14! I cannot see them winning by more than 14. Spencer returns for the Lions and Vermaak is on the bench

Thoughts most welcome, especially those boys who got 6 out of 6 in the Sportspicks wink

If Im watching sport, I might as well get paid for it!

RuggaBugga
useravatar
Offline
1230 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Thanks for those handicap stats RB.

Must say I think it is a tough week and I am not just saying that because I am low on confidence  hmm

Going to get cracking on the previews now!

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

In the meanwhile here is the Week 5 Super 14 Podcast with Gareth Rosslee from SARugby.com and Garth "Popgun" Ridgway from FantasySports

http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/betting … eek-5.html

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

First previews are up:

Chiefs v Crusaders, leaning towards the home team on the handicap http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/rugby/c … eview.html

Waratahs v Lions, some incredible history here with the Tah's 6 from 6 at home and an average victory margin of 29 points. Missed the early value with Mbet though and will wait for closer to kickoff before making a call http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/rugby/w … eview.html

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Toughest round yet imo. For me, a weekend for total points on the fixed odds, will take this game by game

mackem
Chris
useravatar
Offline
1795 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Bulls -18.5

shallowtank
useravatar
Offline
191 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

I got on the Highlanders +23.5 on Monday, just saw that Hobbs and Thomson have been banned for breaking team curfews! I now make the Bulls -19.5 at WSB the bet of the weekend, Highlanders were one of the few teams to beat the Bulls last year and they will want revenge!

Bulls by 35 in the "Snotklap" of the weekend

If Im watching sport, I might as well get paid for it!

RuggaBugga
useravatar
Offline
1230 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Cowan out, Thompson and Hobbs banned for coming home late.
Bulls all the way!

Popgun
useravatar
Offline
224 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Have to agree guys and have just taken Bulls -19.5 at WSB - 5 units - cant see that lasting and I see GreatOdds are -22 now

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

I also got on the Bulls -19.5 a little earlier. With no Thompson and Hobbs your score could be right on RuggaBugga.

Also starting to like the Reds -8.5 over the Force. Just waiting to see the starting line-ups and will then place a bet.

Justin
useravatar
Offline
156 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

hi guys, looking forward to this weekends rugga, tough games  to call for the compo though!

Agree about Bulls, will blow Highlanders away. Not convinced about Lions just yet, Tahs have been poor so far but bound to click at some stage. I'm siding with the Tah's on - cap for that 1.

Other games - Stormers more structured game can counter the attacking style of Canes so Stormers for me on that 1 on cap, and Sharks - well no prized for guessing where i stand!! big_smile

Break a leg with all the rugga punts this weekend.

southpaw
useravatar
Offline
760 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Just some info from down under for you guys:  The Tahs have been mashed in the media this week for playing "boring" rugby v the Sharks, in the 2nd half of the game the crowd was booing every time they kicked the ball.  The rugby leaghue season kicks off this weekend and, the Tahs are desperate to keep the crowds in and play an attractive brand.  even CEO John O'Neill has spoken to the coach saying run the ball.  So expect them to run the ball from all areas of the park tonight.  Of course that doesn't mean it will be a high scoring game, especially as the weather is not great here today although its expected to be okay tonight the field may be wet. (weather http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/forec … dney.shtml)  Bookies have the total points spread at 50 which is quite high.  Tough one to call. 

Expect the Force to ignore O'Neill and kick plenty with ex-Chief flyhalf David Smith (Mitchell's ex player).  They will be desperate to beat the reds and I think they may cover the cap.  Its an afternoon game in Brisbane so wil be intersting to see how many points are scored compared to a night game which we are so used to now.

Saffer in Oz
useravatar
Offline
98 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Thanks for that Saffer - I was thinking along similar lines for the Waratahs game and was eyeing shirt numbers out at around 47 (Tahs shirts) - the bookies are clearly thinking along similar lines and that weather factor will be critical.

An early meeting this morning so no further interest for me in game 1 but will PVR and watch later.

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Tahs 13+

shallowtank
useravatar
Offline
191 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Crusaders for me.

Cheers for the info Saffer - I think I will still go high on points in the Tahs game unless the heavens open.

mackem
Chris
useravatar
Offline
1795 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Chiefs +3.5 and Tah's -15 my bets for today.

southpaw
useravatar
Offline
760 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Crusaders you beauties smile Great finish

Great way to start the punting weekend wink $$$

If Im watching sport, I might as well get paid for it!

RuggaBugga
useravatar
Offline
1230 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Nice one RB 

Have left the total points and gone with the Tahs to beat the handicap

mackem
Chris
useravatar
Offline
1795 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Half Time Handicap Stats:
Lions have beaten the HT Cap on each occasion this season (4/4). They are best priced at +36.5 at 6/5 at GreatOdds. Going with a 4 unit punt to test this theory.

Tahs have got the 4 tries already, sure the Lions can sneak a few points 2nd half ...

On the Tahs -13.5 with Sportspicks smile so looking at a 2 from 2 morning

If Im watching sport, I might as well get paid for it!

RuggaBugga
useravatar
Offline
1230 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

There goes that Half time handicap run for the Lions sad

Still a good morning though thanks to them Saders!

If Im watching sport, I might as well get paid for it!

RuggaBugga
useravatar
Offline
1230 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Hectic morning at work but pleased to report I got on Waratahs shirts at 46 upfront (took a chance not being able to see conditions), closed for 40 units at the break and then pressed at 93 hitting stop loss again.

This Super 14 has been a real roller coaster for me and while up overall I really lost my head in weeks 3 and 4 giving too much back so I am on a mission this weekend.

I see Sharks a popular selection on SportsPicks.

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

How embarrasing it is to be a Lions supporter.

I love pancakes

catsmug
Bluenose Brummie
useravatar
Offline
254 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Get an account with Sporting Index - stop loss on shirts is one gundred

Ignorance doesn't kill you, but it makes you sweat a lot.

kompos
bertie rautenbach
useravatar
Offline
81 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Just one S14 bet for me today, Bulls -21.5

mackem
Chris
useravatar
Offline
1795 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Will maybe punt some in running with the Sharks ...

Go 7.5 units on Highlanders +23.5 Mbet (Taken early in week)
Then have 17.5 units on Bulls -19.5 with WSB (Taken after team news ... )

Bulls by 22 would be great wink but it will be closer to 35!!!

If Im watching sport, I might as well get paid for it!

RuggaBugga
useravatar
Offline
1230 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

kompos wrote:

Get an account with Sporting Index - stop loss on shirts is one gundred

I think Sportsspread were the same and it did work in my favour but can also go against you. One of the things I found was that if I could close for a 40 unit profit at half time I never did because of the possibility of winning 100 units. I let bet ride and the often the game turned and what could have been a big win was suddenly a small one so the big stop loss can go for or against you.

Go the Sharks this morning - at a kids party but should be a tv and may look to play spreads in running.

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Tah's bet was never in doubt, Lions are just so poor.

On the Sharks now + 9.5 on cap, go boys!!!

southpaw
useravatar
Offline
760 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Sharks deliver on the cap, well done lads, away from punting another narrow defeat on the back of what happeed last week must be very frustrating for the team.

Come on you Bulls!

mackem
Chris
useravatar
Offline
1795 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

The spreads have been set high in the Bulls game but I still feel the value is going high and my bet is high on Match shirt numbers at 77 with Betxchange

Conditions should be perfect and if the Bulls get well clear the Highlanders may well grab a couple of consolations.

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

When you consider the Bulls games this season have all had 80 points plus the 9/10 more than 57.5 looks a good bet at WSB

3 units over 57.5 at 9/10

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Closed out for the maximum on shirts  big_smile  Small press Bulls shirts at 92

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Have a feeling there could be a few tries in this one but spreads fairly high. Have gone for the Force +8.5 and Force shirts high at 26 - small stakes and will relook at the break

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

Right about tries but very wrong about team. Reds lovely to watch and no half time action for me - will for a couple of Force consolations from big numbers.

Looking forward to 6 Nations later

Brent Graham
useravatar
Offline
2125 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Super 14 Week 5 - The Thread

sat with the sportspicks selection open for about 20 min thinking about swapping for Reds but in end left it on Force. Regretting it now, Reds far too good for Force.

southpaw
useravatar
Offline
760 Posts
User info in posts
Administrator has disabled public posting