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Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Ok guys over 3 months till Super Rugby but you guys no I love building a book and next year its the Blues (and Lions to a lesser degree) for me.

Here is the betting with my thoughts http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/super-r … tting.html

Would be great to see if anyone else spots anything or agrees or disagrees with me.

Edited By: Brent Graham
Feb-21-12 05:21:33
Brent Graham
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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

nice write-up Brent. Not strong feelings on outright winner yet, do feel Sharks a bit too cramped at 8/1, will hopefully be some double figure prices available closer to start.

I'm looking for a bet on Force to be bottom of Aussie conference and also bottom overall. Rebels with O'Connor and Beale will take some scalps for sure, Force will rely heavily on Pocock but he can't carry then forever. Cheetahs will win a couple games as normal, Highlanders and Chiefs always tough places to go and get results, unlike Perth which has been a happy hunting ground for Saffer teams.

Force to be banking that wooden spoon for me will be my big punt once market is available.

southpaw
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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Agree with you guys on both of those picks. I placed my bet on the Blues 2 weeks ago and also took them for a place (top 2) at 3/1 with Bet.co.za.

Also lining up the Force for wooden spoon. Reckon they will miss James O'Connor big time.

I'm expecting a much better season from the Rebels. With O'Connor and Beale their backline will be very dangerous. I'm hoping for a match bet between the Force and Rebels and will then take the Rebels if the price is decent.

Also reckon the Brumbies to win the Aus conference might be a bit of value. Will be interesting to see what the price on that will be.

hanrick
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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Love it Brent ! You've got me itching for Super 15 already and the Lord knows it's still a long way away !! However I agree with you with the Blues and also fancy the Crusaders as per normal, they will miss SBW, but Thorn will be a massive loss in the engine room, however they're such a classy side they'll be there at the end again I'm sure, like you say though no need just yet to climb on at 7/2, although I would be tempted at 4's and bigger. My real fancy as a bet will be Waratah's finishing top Ausie side, the Reds I fancy could be a little over rated and consistency has to be a huge factor while the Brumbies could have a little too much repect about them because of Jake White. Not sure what the Waratahs might be but anything around the 2/1 mark I'll be flying in with the heavy bombers !

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Bet.co.za has the prices up for the first weekend's matches. Have had it up for a month or so now. When it came out I took maximum liablility (which is to win R1000 in the market) on the Blues at home against the Crusaders at 16/10 and 15/10. Which I could have taken more of that, but unfortuanately the liability on each match is only R1000. I see the price on the Blues is currently 11/10 so I'm very happy with my 16/10 and 15/10.

I see WSB has a few markets up for the Super 15 season, but no real value imo. I fancy the Blus to make the semi's, but the evens about that not value and I reckon you might get a better price once other books price up for that market.

Can't wait for more Super 15 markets to be priced up!

hanrick
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Ok lads we are reaching the point where we can start to get excited about Super Rugby

Betting update including a look at the Conference betting and Wooden Spoon to follow but would also be interested in opinions on the World Sports Betting match bets mentioned by Hanrick above

Crusaders 6/10  Reds 12/10
Blues 9/10 Stormers 9/10
Sharks 8/10 Waratahs 1/1
Bulls 13/20 Chiefs 11/10
Hurricanes 9/10 Brumbies 9/10
Lions 15/20  Highlanders 1/1
Rebels 13/20 Cheetahs 11/10

Brent Graham
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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Hey guys

Yip time to get excited. For me the only value I can see is th Chiefs over the Bulls. I think the Bulls are going to miss the likes of Matfield and Botha a lot more than expected, where they used to be able to turn to the forward donmination when things weren't going their way, they can't do that anymore. The Cheifs have gotten a few decent players in and if I remember last year they were the walking wounded, don't see it happening 2 years in a row. Also they have lost Donald so back line can only get better, and with Cruden think he can get the Electric backs running. Also with Graham coming to the for last season, think they could be challenging where think Bulls will be lucky to make Semi's this year.

Just my thoughts.

kt6747
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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

KT the 3 markets I highlighted was where I see value and the Chiefs over the Bulls is the one that stood out the most. My one concern is the Chiefs conference which is very strong but then again the SA Conference will be strong as well. I am with you on that one as the bet offering the best value of the match ups.

Here is a betting update -  http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/super-r … pdate.html         

Blues now 11/2 in places but some 8/1 still on offer

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Taken these outsiders  rebels 66/1 for 1 unit , lions 33/1 for 2 units and brumbies 25/1 for 2 units. You never know what can  happen a good run by any of these sides could see them in the semis and at that price i'll look to hedge. Pick to win outright is the SHARKS but will still look around till can find better value.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Cheetahs my pick to finish last at 5/1 for 4  units.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

D-Truth I have gone for the Force at 3/1 with Sportsbet http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/super-r … tting.html

I reckon its a cracking price (Betx show 33/10 in their template but 2/1 elsewhere and not prepared to wait)

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

with you there Brent, also had them lined up back in November for the wooden spoon (see earlier post), like your confidence and will be joining you on the 3/1.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Shot South just looked at your earlier post again - great that we are aligned.

The 3/1 quickly shortened to 28/10 and is now 5/2 at Sportsbet

Will start having a look at the Conferences soon as well.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Crusaders team to play the Highlanders, practice game this Friday

1.Wyatt Crockett (Captain),2.Quentin MacDonald,3.Nick Barrett,4.Ross Kennedy,5.Tom Donnelly,6.Joe Wheeler,7.Matt Todd,8.Luke Whitelock,9.Willi Heinz,10.Tyler Bleyendaal,11.Adam Whitelock,12.Ryan Crotty,13.Robbie Fruean,14.Sean Maitland,15.Tom Marshall

Interchange Players

Forwards: Joe Moody,Ben Franks,Sam Prattley,Ben Funnell,Codie Taylor,Luke Romano,Dominic Bird,Brendon O’Connor,George Whitlock

Backs:Mark Swanepoel,Mitchell Scott,Patrick Osborne,Andy Ellis,

Dawied
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The list of unavailable players has some big names on it and includes, Tom Taylor, Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock, Owen Franks, Corey Flynn, Richie McCaw, Zac Guildford, Israel Dagg, Johnny McNicoll

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Also from the Shark camp the Beast is out for up to three months with a broken leg.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Someone else mentioned it earlier, but Aplon at 6/1 to be Stormers top try-scorer with Sportingbet is great value! Allister Coetzee has mentioned that Aplon will be used first and foremost as a wing this season, with Joe Pietersen being the number 1 fullback.

Sportingbet also has a SA captains performance market up. In this market the 5 SA Super rugby franchises' captains go up against each other for the season. They get 20 points for a try, -10 points for a yellow card and -50 points for a red card. In this market I really fancy Keegan Daniel. He likes scoring tries and his discipline is normally very good. Schalk Burger has always had been known to get cards and Juan Smith is always an injury concern. I don't expect a good season from the Bulls and Pierre Spies hasn't been playing good rugby the past 2 years. For me it's between Josh Strauss and Keegan Daniel. I have gone for Keegan Daniel at 7/2.

hanrick
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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Hanrick it looks as though you and I are going to be cherring home the same bets this season. I am not on yet but also like Aplon top Stormer and had also got it down to a choice between Daniel and Strauss although was leaning slightly to Strauss.

Credit to Sportingbet for the exotics but one market where I dont see them getting any action is the Sack Race - I cant recall the last time a coach was fired mid season

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I must say I saw the same bet as you guys but I was weighing Strauss v Spies. I agree that Spies hasn't been at his best but perhaps he will lead by example and carry the ball with a bit more vigour this season. As a Shark supporter Daniel's antics at times have made me want to pull my hair out and I see him as too much of a loose cannon. Yes he scores some tries but I rate he will get a card or two along the way. Strauss and Spies should keep their noses clean. I'm backing Spies on this one- don't think the Bulls will be as bad as some people think.

I also like Aplon at 6/1 and I even took some back-up on Juan De Jongh. Basically I just think Habana, Poolman and Van den Heever can be aposed in the betting and thus Aplon looks a great bet.

Nice markets from Sporitngbet indeed Brent. Credit to them!

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Have joined on Aplon @ 6/1, feels like it might not last.

Re Keegan Daniel - as a Sharks fan like CC i'm as biassed as they come and love Daniel's passion, but he plays the game very close to the edge and there were times last season when I thought he'd get carded on a number of occasions. On plus side he might have matured a bit more after a year as captain, and does get amongst the tries.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

how much notice do you guys take of pre-season warm-ups? Was a bit surprised by Rebels 36-0 loss in Geelong to Chiefs, so a home match really for Rebels. A drubbing of note.

Worth sitting up and taking notice of?  or just one to ignore?

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

South, I read a report on the match and I read a lot into the performance of the Rebels in this match. To me it looked like they weren't experimenting to much and were just totally outplayed.

Beale only played a small part of the game (he will be the main attacking player imo for the rebels this season). O Connor had a non-performance in the match and the forwards were totally outplayed. Their finishing was also lacking. Although it is early days still and there will be improvement I don't think it looks too good for the Rebels based on the performance. Saying that they are most likely going to cruise home in the next game and make me eat my words......

Generally though, I look at the performance of the players, any blinders from players and try keep up to date on injuries in these warm ups to sus out for the opening rounds. No more than that.

I do think that the Chiefs will be a dark horse this year though. Got that gut feel about them this year! Especially now that Donald is gone and replaced by Cruden.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

I have taken slight note of the performances. I have jumped on Chiefs -6 vs Highlanders. The form of their two warmup games coupled with chiefs at home this looks like a cracking bet!

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I am in agreement with you Fearless and have also taken the -6 Chiefs. I also fancy them for a good one although am worried the New Zealand Conference is almost too strong and they will take points off each other while the Reds get to put away the likes of the Force and possibly the Rebels.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Hi Guys,

One of the early bets that caught my is Brumbies -6.5 at WSB.  They recently beat the Force in Darwin 25-0.  Although Pocock and Sharpe didn't play a 7 point win for the Brumbies looks good to me.  Any thoughts?

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

My main Super 15 bet so far is the Gio Aplon top try scorer @ 6/1.

Got an early treble in for the first rounds games.

Chiefs -6.5
Brumbies -6.5
Cheetahs +5.5

With Hollies, works out to just under 6/1

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Hi guys!

Pierrebal I agree with you on the Brumbies -6.5 and I already have money down on that.

I'm also with you guys on the Chiefs -6.5 and placed my bet on them on Friday. When I logged onto WSB now I saw they have the Chiefs handicap at -5.5. I have taken some stock of that too, as I reckon the cap should be about 5 points higher.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Chiefs -5.5 @ 9/10 with WSB is the bet of the opening round for me. Highlanders injury list getting longer and longer, the pre-season form of Chiefs has been strong whereas Highlanders took a hiding last week. All over that.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Chiefs beat Highlanders in Queenstown today 38-36, so a decent away win for them, although great Highlanders fightback, Chiefs were 31-10 up at 1 point! A bit odd though for them to playing each other  2 weeks before real thing.

Still fancy Chiefs minus at home.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

For the Outright Betting the Waratahs have one of the easiest schedules
Only Cheetahs and Stormers over here with Crusaders,Bulls and Sharks at home
A  few wins and that 10/1 will tumble.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

I will be taking the conservative route in the opening round
Double bet on Chiefs and Brumbies @ 5/10 each respectively
This amounts to just over 12/10 which Im happy to take all day long!
Highlanders did show a bit of character and grit recently when they were 31-10 down to the Chiefs in a preseason encounter, only to claw themselves back to a 2 point loss in a 38-36 thriller. Yeah Chiefs most likely took their foot off the gas a bit but one cannot ignore the the fact that Highlanders do fight with a lot of heart despite being depleted going into this season. Chiefs should blow them out the water but with this being the opening round and Highlanders perhaps still hoping to ignite on a positive note, outright is the way for me.
Brumbies were dissapointing last season but did show a bit more mettle once Jake White arrived, my only concern is that these Aussies derbies tend to throw the odd surprise when least expected. This in theory should be a cake walk for the Brumbies and should beat the cap relatively comfortably but having cost me a packet last season, I have decided to walk before throwing myself in the caps market.

"I used to be a heavy gambler. But now I just make mental bets. That's how I lost my mind." Steve Allen.

Bookie Basher
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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Guys I'm liking the Reds +5.5 this weekend against the Tahs.
Reds had a good win today with quite a full strength team with just Quade not playing.
Also read that Drew Mitchell is out for the Tahs.

My picks:
Reds +
Chiefs -
Brumbies -

Greed - He who dies with the most toys, still dies.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Taken a look at the Aussie Conference

http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/super-r … eview.html

Sided with Reds 12/10 WSB

Brent Graham
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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

I reckon the Waratahs will take the Aussie conference.

hanrick
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I see WSB have Lions @ Evens to end above Highlanders, I have taken some of that, think the Lions will be tough to beat and Highlanders have huge injury problems.

kt6747
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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

I've gone for quite a cheeky little treble

Blues to win NZ conference
Sharks to win SA conference
Waratahs to win AUS conference

around 25/1

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Cancel that Waratahs selection of mine. Just saw their list of injuries. Luckily I haven't place money on that yet.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Guys I have had a look at the regular season match ups and make the Sharks/Stormers a great value play at 35/20 with Lads

http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/super-r … -bets.html

Also took a look at SA Conference and went for Sharks although Lions my best result
http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/super-r … eview.html

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

1st preview up early because I don't see team news changing my mind http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/super-r … eview.html

Gone Brumbies -3.5 19/20 with Betx and under 46.5 points with Volt - great to see them doing points and getting them out early

Brent Graham
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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Business is picking up big time lads- team news should be coming out tomorrow and I can't wait. Just for interest sake I see Volties have come out with some interesting special markets with regard to the Bulls (at this stage). Some fun bets to be had there and credit to them for doing something different.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Hmmm I wonder why Volties chose to focus on the Bulls? Watch this space

An outright and New Zealand Conference betting update

http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/super-r … pdate.html

Some interesting differences in opinion on some of the teams.

Anybody got a reason why Highlanders are in to 33/1 from 66/1?

Brent Graham
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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Brent Graham wrote:

1st preview up early because I don't see team news changing my mind http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/super-r … eview.html

Gone Force -3.5 19/20 with Betx and under 46.5 points with Volt - great to see them doing points and getting them out early

BG don't you mean Brumbies -3.5?

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

I presume Voltbet has that Bulls special market due to their brand new sponsorship deal with the Bulls. Must say it sounds like a great combination. Am pretty dissapointed that a more "with it' side like the Sharks didn't beat the men from Pretoria to the punch. Say what you will about the Bulls their off-field management and administration have done some great work the last few years in really establishing a top brand.

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Re: Super Rugby 2012 - Long Term bets

Managed to pop into the Press Conference and it was well done with cameras clicking like crazy - the team was announced at the same press conference and enjoyed it when Joffers asked Pierre Spies whether we should be putting our heads down and backing the Bulls minus....needless to say Spies (who is an athlete of note) had "no comment"

Good spot Charles - for some reason keep writing Force instead of Brumbies - hopefully not an omen.

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