Morning racing fans,

Excellent views Charles, like that Winged Foot punt.

Soft going at Scotsville today, my recommendation is to keep stakes on conservative side as could be some big priced results. Not a huge interest from me as am a bit tied down today, looking for some big outsiders at small stakes -

Race 1 – don’t feel this just between the 3 that bookies have priced up as. 2 yr olds can improve rapidly, so taking a chance on Classic Sensation @ 33/1 win, 5/2 place. Not given punishing ride last 2 runs, unlike the 2 favourites today, who were hard ridden to place last time out. Gets much better jock this time, just going on a hunch she’ll improve, small e/w bet.

Race 6 – probably the biggest outsider i’ve picked for months, but the old boy King Thom loves the soft, especially at Scotsville. Only the 2 at the top of betting are in good form, rest all a bit of colour lately. A very speculative punt here but at 40/1 win, 7/1 place, won’t be doing any harm to the wallet to back him.

Race 9 – Very open race to end day, Torn By Love drops back to sprints where has been most successful. Another who loves the soft, she’s an older mare but has shown some ability in past and was a course and distance winner this time last year. Again, another speculative punt – 12/1 win and 2/1 place, top 4.

Will be looking at the Turffontein card a bit loser later on, looks a much more decent betting proposition.

Very disappointed by Wundabar,  but Winged Foot saved the day and contributed to 4.5 unit profit at Scottsville.  Well done to South and Coil who also expressed their confidence in WF 

As a consolation, I'll be throwing LP in a win double with DG @ 9/1 (0.5 units). Other daily profits employed this evening at Turffontein.

thanks Charles for your Winged Foot confidence  , covered my stakes on my 3 roughies so at worse break even if last one doesn't pop up.

Stiff on LP and Wundabar, not as many big priced winners I expected today, just the one 30/1 shot.

spoke too soon about not many big priced winners today - last 2 races R20 a win and R15 a win. Formbook out the window.

South, top call with the boxed exacta (R9.6) which translates to 4.8/1  - the bet was never in doubt. I'm very satisfied with the R2.1 swinger dividend -  a schweet 6 unit profit on the race. 

PS: Seemingly lightning does strike twice. 

South, stiff that CW got nabbed on the line, but the 11/10 place bet a very solid winning bet - well done.  My roughie was unsighted, but fortunately not too much damage. I came out marginally ahead tonight and thanks to Scottsville, a decent day at the races.

Looking to keep the winning momentum for tomorrow at Arlington and ultimately Kenilworth on Saturday.

Not betting much till Saturday.Only bet on three horse races  today.2 losers  in uk and backed both Charles and Souths picks in Race 8 in Turfo.Big pity Cape Winter got beat just at the death.Looking forward to Saturday.

excellent thoughts Charles, pulling for all your punts.

J&B Met preview is up -

http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/horse-r … eview.html

Looking to taken on Igugu with another filly - Beach Beauty gets the vote @ 14/1 win, 9/4 a place. I just cannot be backing Igugu at such short odds.

Great comeback with Go Diego Charles!! Hope the lucky last is kind to you mate.

nice end to day Charles!   Glad you're back in black mate.

southpaw wrote:

excellent thoughts Charles, pulling for all your punts.

J&B Met preview is up -

http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/horse-r … eview.html

Looking to taken on Igugu with another filly - Beach Beauty gets the vote @ 14/1 win, 9/4 a place. I just cannot be backing Igugu at such short odds.

South, thanks for an excellent preview. Your record in the feature races the past 6 months has been impeccable. Given this record, I think we should all follow you with BB. What a fairy-tale ending for Drier if BB can win. With the injury cloud hanging over Igugu and a decent pace expected (unlike her previous run), BB might be Drier's crowning glory. If BB wins, you going to have us all under the cosh in the JB Met tipping comp. 

South, Coil mentioned that he is making the trip down to the Met.

Not the most inspiring card today for Clairwood and I'm essentially giving the card a miss. Only one horse that I tagged in the horses to follow thread, Reign as Kings, but at 1/4 I can't get involved (unless in ATC).

I like a few horses at Meydan this evening, but I can't source any betting yet. I fancy the 2 MDK horses - Musir (best bet) and Viscount Nelson and a value bet I found in week 1, Regal Parade, who I'll be sticking with this evening.     

I'll try a ATC bet: RaK (win); Musir (win); VN (place); RP (place) and also take these onto South's fancy in the Met, BB (place).

Good punting.

Please don't shoot me because I know it wasn't rocket science, but RaK home and hosed in the first. That makes it 2 from 2 for the horses to follow thread and quite interestingly a few more of these strut their stuff on Saturday - Born to be Wild; Welwitschia; Jackson; Ocean's Swift and Lucky Moon. I'm tempted to stay loyal to these horse in the Met tipping comp.

Hi Charles,

I've already taken some of Jackson early doors @ 2/1, now much shorter. This horse excites me so much, I really think he won't be beaten.

Also like your Born To Be Wild from the 'to follow' list, looks a great e/w bet?

roughie in Dubai later -

Race 4, Storm Chispazo @ 16/1 e/w. Herman Brown trained runner was top class in Argentina a few years back, also won a decent race in Singapore. Nice re-appearance last time out. No harm at that price.

Don't mind Gimme beating Igugu Batrico, as long as Beach Beauty is ahead of them both in 1st! BB is my pick for the race.

http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/horse-r … eview.html

southpaw wrote:

on the Met day card - there's some great opportunities to build some nice ATC bets. This was my one from preview -

Race 3 – Agra win, Race 5 – Jackson win, Race 6 – Ebony Flyer place, Race 8 – Divine Jet win, Race 10 – Born To Be Wild place. Works out to anything between 30/1 and 40/1, depending who with.

What do you guys think - chasing too big a price, maybe cut one out? What's your ATC bet going to look like?

South, it's generally tough to crack a 5-legged ATC - I try to restrict it to 4 horses maximum, but all 5 of your horses are top class and stand an excellent chance - I say go for it - it's a value bet.

My ATC place bet @ 28/1 for the day - Ocean's Swift; Trinity House; Tales of Bravery and Born to be Wild

Lodar if you look past J and VC, it becomes wide open for the trifecta and quartet places - PP is the dark horse of the race - grade 1 winner and Azzie has been talking up this one for a long time - now gets right distance and could be a serious danger. Even Elley reckons his 70/1 horse has a place chance.

Thanks Charles, I'll give the trifecta a skip. I'd still like to watch some replays of PP's previous races though, for interst sake. Do you guys have a online site where you watch replays? I usually use http://stsp.co.za/tir/ but it seems to be down now, and its pretty poor quality.

Hi Lodar,

Yes the Racing Association site's replay section is one I use (same link u posted). I know sometimes it can be down or a little slow, but overall I think it's superb - all free and going back a year, you'd pay for that in most countries, I know in UK you have to pay around R10 a UK race replay!

Charles is the PE expert Lodar, I don't have a huge angle on Golden Ruse but guess he has to beat his stablemate who was 4 lengths ahead last time and know gets 1kg back from GR. Maybe a nice swinger?

I'll have a very rare dabble in PE - Race 6, She Wolff - 5/2 for win. Snaith runner, been knocking on door up in trip and ran an excellent race in only race this distance. Looks the one to beat.

southpaw wrote:

Hi Lodar,

Yes the Racing Association site's replay section is one I use (same link u posted). I know sometimes it can be down or a little slow, but overall I think it's superb - all free and going back a year, you'd pay for that in most countries, I know in UK you have to pay around R10 a UK race replay!

Charles is the PE expert Lodar, I don't have a huge angle on Golden Ruse but guess he has to beat his stablemate who was 4 lengths ahead last time and know gets 1kg back from GR. Maybe a nice swinger?

I'll have a very rare dabble in PE - Race 6, She Wolff - 5/2 for win. Snaith runner, been knocking on door up in trip and ran an excellent race in only race this distance. Looks the one to beat.

Thanks South. My inital thought was Jervis for that race, I was looking for some value though, your swinger suggestion is a good idea. To be honest I totally missed Jervis' weight, somehow I put him on 59kg.
Regarding the replays, I think the poor quality might be related to a slow connection, the server sending a lower res vid or something. But as you say, its free, and a hell of a lot better than nothing!

Lodar, in studying the form - Jervis looks like the right one at the weights and it is long overdue for next win - only negative is Kennedy. Don't give up on your original fancy - it's something I've regretted doing. 

PS: I forgot to mention: Teetan is also riding Polar Bound, who has a very good chance tomorrow. PB will definitely be part of my betting strategy.

Coil, please enjoy the Met  - I think the rest of us are very envious of you - the smart money says that the fillies will dominate the proceedings at Kenilworth tomorrow - so keep a close eye on the equestrian and human type.   

I haven't looked at Turffontein card yet, but please be cautious - the Ferraris yard is badly off form at the moment (only 1 win from 60 runs recently). I love Ilha Bela - tipped this one on the forum @ 7/1 last time when blistering home against the rail with Appie aboard - fond memories, so I'll follow you and back this one. Swinger horse might be Destiny's Lady who was very unlucky last time.

Hi racing fans,

My thoughts on Met card (other than Met itself which is available at http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/horse-r … eview.html ).

Going to post in 2 sections as sometimes have a few technical hiccups with these long posts -

Race 1
Like the Mike Bass runner Cherbourg, a horse I backed last time out (the memorable day of catching the PA x 100 in the Cape) and going to stick with him here to go one better than his second place finish. He's only raced the 5 times and takes a jump up in class, but that allows him to come in with a lightweight 52.5kg on his back. Has services of the best young jockey in the country right now, Grant van Niekerk, has plum draw and stable sounding bullish about his chances. 11/2 the win and 9/10 top 4 places.

Race 2
Going with the favourite here, the lightening quick Miss October from the Bruss yard. Unbeaten in her 2 starts, she's a beautifully bred Var filly out of a mare called Bushgirl, and is a full sister to Grade 1 winning sprinter August Rush from the same yard. MO hasn't really been pushed at all in those 2 wins and although she takes a massive step up in class here she looks destined to go right to the top. MO has a course experience and has been lined up for this race. Main danger could be Rain Gal, who looks nicely weighted, and Oceans Swift, a forum fancy who won well last time out. Going with MO for win @ 3/1 and swingers MO and OS.

Race 3
Struggling to look past Agra here. Rumored to be a top individual, been well backed all week. Price of 6/10 no value, going into an ATC.

Race 5 (Cape Derby)
Have been harping on about Jackson now for a couple months since backing him to win in November, and he since followed up with another win earlier this month in the Politican Stakes. His last win was so impressive, pulling away with the slightest effort against a decent field. He’s bred for this distance and still looks to have a huge amount to come, I really am struggling to see anything beating him. Variety Club is classy and gets the services of Marcus, but Jackson will love this trip and I give him the edge over VC. A possible danger could be the roughie Alula Borealis, who at 25/1 could run into the minor money. Have already taken 2/1 on Jackson to win race, now much shorter, but will add him into an ATC and will go the swinger J/AB.

Race 8
Divine Jet was a hot favourite for the Cape Guineas last time out but never ran anything like his best when being soundly beaten. He drops back to the sprint trip of 1200m here, a distance he’s looked more than comfortable at so far in his short career. He’ll need to be at his best though and I think he will, as he takes on a hot field of decent sprinting sorts who will test his pace. However I firmly believe he wouldn’t be dropped back in distance if he wasn’t ripping it up at home in the gallops, the Kannemeyer stable will have him spot-on for this outing and despite the competitive field, I can’t look past a win for Divine Jet here. Here was still learning his way around the racetrack with those two wins over the 1200m in his first 2 runs, and now with more experience under the belt he should be even sharper. Divine Jet for the win @ around 13/10.

My first ATC bet for the day is:

R3 – Agra win
R5 – Jackson win
R8 – Divine Jet win

ATC treble works out to 15/2.

More thoughts to follow on remaining 4 races (4th, 6th, 9th and 10th races).

Did anyone see R4 today? Was AK ever in contention? I was pretty confident on that swinger.

Hi guys, just caught up with all results at PE. Charles that's a sweet looking double now going onto Jackson!   

Didn't see any of the racing today Lodar as was a bit tied up, did catch phone in commentary of She Wolff, pipped into 3rd, should have guessed such is my history with PE!    A rare bet on PE and next one will be even rarer. 

Looking forward to tomorrow, any of the forumites going to Kenilworth, have a superb day.

good stuff mate. Will be doing cart-wheels if Jackson does what we hope, have got a lot riding on him now.

Nice one Batrico, break a leg mate.

Really struggling to nail down bets on the 4th and 6th, especially the latter. The Majorca stakes is a top class field, any of Covenant, Welwitschia, Ebony Flyer or Trinity House could win it in my opinion, will have to think hard about that one. In the meantime I like the following for the final couple races of day -

Race 9
The Mike Bass trained Jet Lady catches my eye here and is my e/w bet @ 12/1. Ran a cracker last time out when squeezing through a gap for a close 3rd, with the form being franked by Happy Heart who was behind JL but won next time out, beating the favourite for this race Feel my Love. JL carries just 52kg here and has a top young jock on board. Her breeding suggest the 2000m trip will suit and at 12/1 I feel this lightly raced filly might spring a surprise.

Race 10
Going to throw in a real bomb for the last - Jeppe's Reef @ 40/1 win, 7/1 place. I'm putting him up as the last looks the only race where I feel we'll get a chance of a huge upset. JR has ability, is 3rd run after a layoff, and has run well over these marathon trips before. If i'm honest it's more of a hunch bet at such a big price, on strict form he shouldn't even place but am going to allow myself one big outsider of the day and JR gets the vote for a small e/w punt.

Ok boys here goes

R1 reigning monarch
R2 miss October
R3 terminator
R4 polar bound
R5 Jackson
R6 ebony flyer
R7 run for it
R8 great fox
R9 jet lady
R10 jeppes reef

BG and South, unfortunately Jeppe's Reef is scratched.

The know that the Turffontein meeting is the Cinderella meeting, but there might still be money to be made. My fancies:

Best bet: Tiger's Retreat @ 6/10 - not much value, so maybe stick this one in ATC, but should come home lonely.

Best bet: Tresco @ 13/10 - top class form against stronger fields, drops in class, from red-hot Fradd/Tarry combo, seems to have this field at her mercy. I recommend a large (6.5 unit) win bet.

Value bet: Lady's Destire /b] @ 3/1 - full sister to the international, MDK superstar, Lizard's Desire. Now has 3rd third, from good formlines and very handy inside draw, should be very competitive today. I recommend a medium-sized e/way (2.5 unit win and 5.5 unit place).

Outsider: [b]Destiny's Lady @ 10/1 - very unlucky last time when slow away and baulked, steps up in distance, has the top sort Ilha Bela to beat, but I posted this one in the horses to follow thread and I'm sticking with her. I recommend a medium-sized e/way and the swinger bet DL/IB. 1 unit win bet; 3.5 unit place bet and 2.5 unit swinger.

My ATC bet @ 16.5/1 (1.5 units):

TR (win)
Tresco (win)
LD (place)
DL (place)

Good punting

Hi Charles, love those Turffontein picks, following on your ATC and also the e/w Destinys Lady who was very unlucky last time as you say.

Shame Jeppe's Reef scratched this morning, I will replace him with another Bass runner - Thanks John @ 20/1 e/w. A bit of an in and out sort however on his day has the class to feature here.

Hmmm, I see I've already placed rather cunky looking EW's on LD and TR, in the early hours of this morning. The last thing I recall is making the wife watch youtube vids of horse chestnut's dominance. I think I need to take a break from racing after today.

CharlesCot wrote:

Guys, just a small word of caution - I checked the results from the Met meeting last year and only 1 favourite won on the day. Notorious for upsets as fields are large and competitive - everybody wants to win on Met day.

Hope thats a  good omen for my cash bets.

Once again RM's start lets him down, bang goes my first bet.

Hi guys. Have backed these horses today R1  jet into the wind R2 ocean's swift R3 agra R4 m'lords throat R5 potala palace R6 happy archer R7 run for it R8 divine jet R9 ce loire R10 orchard house. Have also entered them into South's comp. Have taken alot of doubles , trebles and few 5 leg ATC with the above. Taken a straight line PA, Jp and pick 6. Run For It 2012 met winner. All the best.

Hmm 2 races down 2 outsiders win.

Now TR needs to win at Turfies, mainly to get my ridicuously stupid EW back that I don't remember placing last night, plus a double with black aces, which was a more sobre bet this morning.

some relief for punters there with Agra, got him in double onto Jackson and trebles onto Jackson/Divine Jet.

Not getting a lookin today.Polar Bound never dangerous at least Mlords Throat was up there for a while.

trying a Jackpot at Kenilworth - loading up a bit where my other fancies run but still bankering Divine Jet -

Leg 1 : Race 5 [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Leg 2 : Race 6 [1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 11]
Leg 3 : Race 7 [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16]
Leg 4 : Race 8 [5]

taken 50% for R240.

South, I'm very perplexed by the results today (at both courses) -    Agra the only exception - Tarry yard very costly to follow - already done over 10 units on TR and T - very disappointing and no kind of run from these runners - you might be onto something as Tarry yard have been in top form for months now.

Desperately hoping for Jackson win and VC in the swingers and exactas for sanity to prevail. 

Taken a ATC double with the tote happy archer and run for it.

Guys, I know less about Horse Racing than P Divvy knows about Rugby! but all the talk of Jackson and I stuck on a late punt and BOOOM!!!

Well done South and the Jackson backers!    

speculative boxed trifecta in Majorca Stakes - 1/2/4/9/11 boxed taken once.

Taken a swinger and exacta with beach beauty and run for it.

IGUGU     BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM          That was my biggest win ever

Just about the house the dog, couldn't get enough for the wife

Well done to the backers of Igugu, in particular Dawie. She proved that she is a true champion today, despite everything going against her. I just couldn't have her at that price with all the doubt and question marks, but well done to her (loyal) supporters.

Thanks Charles Was told about a month ago that she can't loose. So I took a huge bet on her,  then all the rumors started . To say I was a nervous  wreck the last two weeks will be a under statement. But yes the stable information was correct all along.

Believe the hype about Divine Jet - superstar spriner in the making - reminds me a lot of What a Winter (1200-1400m horse who just doesn't stay a top-class 1600m). Well done to the backers of DJ and especially to South, who showed a nice profit on the jackpot. DJ a very nice banker, South 

In hindsight all the top/boom horses won (J; EF; I and DJ) and still paid 62/1 - amazing.

South, you and I rowing in the same boat, but I need BtbW to WIN to save my day - got a few doubles and a small treble running onto the BIG grey. Let's hope for the best.

Well done Batrico with AR  - FmL seemed to have her beat with the weight turnaround but perhaps Striker made all the difference.

BtbW shortened to 5/1 - I hope this is a good sign. Go BtbW....Go....

Just stuck another €5 on BTBW @12/1 hes 7/2 on tote pool

eish, not to be with BTBW, didn't run any sort of race.

If you want to catch replay of met can do so here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sjBVHVssuU

Looking at race, any backers of Run For It can probably feel a little stiff, he had to be switched twice and was flying at the death scraping paint on the rail. One to follow next time out.

Had a total of 27 units(12 wins and 15 places) on Run For It. Hard done by it not winning but still made over 52 units on the places(could have made more profit if taken all with bookies)

Shot South, my only 2 bets for the day Jackpot perm (R100) - 6 x F x 5 x F and a straight line jackpot - 6 x 1 x 5 x 2

Good punting

on second thoughts, I'll try one punt on remaining of card - Anka Man in next is a horse who won impressively last time out, beat a horse who I put up next time out, Returnee, who's in the horses to follow list. 12/1 feels decent, an e/w punt.

should have taken hint after JP, no run from AM, that's it for today...definitely.

Back next week on the ponies.