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Supershark 2012

Supershark 2012

Afternoon all smile

I plan to put all of my future bets into this thread as it will make it easier for me to track my bets as well as maybe get some input from the forum too smile

My Staking plan is between 1 to 10 units.
2 unit = 0.4% of bankroll
4 units = 0.8%
10 units = 2%

If I place a spread bet the max loss I am willing to take is double my max fixed bet stake so 20 units.

I am planning to keep it quite conservative because I have been hit quite hard over the past few months so from today I am starting afresh, with a completely new bankroll and I am going to be using 5 accounts (BetX, Hollies, Sportingbet, Sportsbet and Volt).

Any suggestions from anyone? smile

Also over time I might keep adding to this 1st post, maybe a few rules for myself or refs/teams to steer clear of in the future smile

If you guys think this might be annoying I will gladly write it all down instead of posting it on the site?
Just let me know smile

Edited By: Supershark15
Feb-09-12 07:54:38

Supershark15
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Re: Supershark 2012

I think it's great Shark. We can all learn from each other. Go for it

joebanana
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Re: Supershark 2012

Thanks Joe smile

I've decided to change my staking plan slightly.

Instead of 3 units I am going to have 1-10 unit bets.

I just feel it is easier to gage something when on a 1 - 10 scale.

Obviously I will make the unit sizes a lot smaller.

2 units being 0.4% of bank roll.
4 units being 0.8%
10 units being 2% (not going to happen very often unless I feel its a "lock")

As of yet no bets placed.

I will look into some footie and rugby for this weekend smile

Supershark15
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Re: Supershark 2012

go for it SuperShark, nothing wrong with having some discipline by keeping track of your bets and sticking to a staking strategy, can only help.

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Re: Supershark 2012

Got a bet in for this weekends soccer.

5 units on Blackburn vs QPR both teams to score (yes) 15/20 at BetX

other bookies are 7/10 or lower.

Reasons for bet:
1. Blackburn have conceded at least 1 goal in their last 24.
2. QPR have conceded at least 1 goal in their last 15.

As Chris has already stated in his preview over 2.5 goals looks a good punt too.

Supershark15
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Re: Supershark 2012

I have never been able to alter my bet bet size according to how strongly I feel about a game. Or rather I have not been able to do it successfully. My records show that I win 57% of my rugga bets ( last 5 years) My best tournament was the 2008 Curriecup with a 69% win rate. Isolating the bets where I felt "very strongly" about the outcome, the strike rate DROPS to 60% and the games that I felt only "mildly positive" about gives an astonishing strike rate of 74%!  Must be doing something wrong somewhere. Anyway each to his own. My strategy is to punt 5% of my bankroll regardless of how strongly I feel about a particular game. If I make a handicap +9 and a bookie offers +16 I get on. It makes so much sense to wager more when you feel stronger about a game but I have not been able to crack that code. Case in point: If you where to examine all my posts where I tipped a particular team ,I doubt the success rate would top 30% (which is apalling for an essentially 50 - 50 game). These "tips" were all on games where I felt particularly strong about the outcome! Hence my reluctance to post said "strong felings" !!. Anyway I salute your quest Shark. Roll on RUGGA SEASON !!!!

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Re: Supershark 2012

AT & T Golf

I am using whats left of my Hollywood bonus for this weekends golf.

Bryce Molder 2 units E/W
Arron Baddeley 2 units E/W
Trevor Immelman 1 unit E/W
John Mallinger 1 unit E/W
John Hun 2 units Place only
Jeff Maggert 1 unit Place only.

Quite a spread of golfers, mainly because other than the majors this is one of my favourite golfing events.
This course is very special and is definitely on my bucket list along with Augusta and St. Andrews.

Supershark15
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Re: Supershark 2012

Just had a look at 2012 scoring averages and Maggert ranks 2nd with an average of 68.08 whereas his playing partner for the day Robert Garrigus averages 69.50.

Maggert is 12/10 at sportsbet and BetX and I have taken 2 units on it.

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Re: Supershark 2012

Will watch with interest SS and really enjoyed your post JB

Brent Graham
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Re: Supershark 2012

Thanks BG smile Also really liked JB's post.

I really like over 4.5 sixes for tomorrows 3rd ODI in the Commonwealth bank series.

Aus hit 5 sixes against the Indian attack in the 1st ODI, the game was also rain affected and only 32 overs were bowled in each innings.

If Warner, Wade or D Hussey get going they should cover the 4.5 sixes quoted, thats without taking the Sri Lankan innings into account.

Gone 6 units with sportingbet at 5/6

Supershark15
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Re: Supershark 2012

I love that 6s bet shark! Nice one!

Fearless on the Punt
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Auz making hard work of things here! Too many starts without players kicking on! At one stage looked like the 5 sixes would be accomplished this innings, just 2 more needed and we are still firm favourites Id say but one more in this Auzzie innings would be good! I have just taken Auz for the win at 6-5. Think their bowling will be spot on and Lankans will struggle with this bounce!

Even average bowlers in my opinion like Matthews have been tough to play on this deck! Think the auzzies will have them 40-3! smile

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Re: Supershark 2012

Ahhh two one bounce fours in the innings! sad

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Re: Supershark 2012

I Agree aussies innings hasn't been great but one more 6 this innings will do nicely

Stark is a top quality bowler and should have the Lankens in trouble early

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Re: Supershark 2012

AHHHH

That last shot in aussie innings could have so easily gone for 6 ... great catch to put us into a bit of bother.

You can have your 40 for 3 but in those 40 Dilshan must hit 2 sixes wink haha

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Re: Supershark 2012

Gone for 4 units on Aus win at the Half way stage @ 7/10 with Voltbet

Wicket is slow and Stark is a machine

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Re: Supershark 2012

Not looking good on both fronts.

Aus aren't bowling all that well, but their total isn't high enough to warrant the Lankens going for the big shots.

That run out has given us a bit of hope for the Aus victory but we need a few quick wickets, Chandimal looks more and more at home in ODI's every time i see him.

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Yes Chandimal is the wicket we need! He is a grinder and I am very doubtful he will hit a 6 while at the crease! I think Dilshan will have a go at Doherty in the next few overs so will be interesting to see!

Fearless on the Punt
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Re: Supershark 2012

Voltbet have just come out with their outright odds for the Las Vegas 7's and 11/8 is the best price I have seen on NZ.

Last week they were a league above the rest and looked back to their best.

I am going MAX BET (10 units) NZ to win Las Vegas 7's @ 11/8

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Re: Supershark 2012

Fearless on the Punt wrote:

Yes Chandimal is the wicket we need! He is a grinder and I am very doubtful he will hit a 6 while at the crease! I think Dilshan will have a go at Doherty in the next few overs so will be interesting to see!

Wrong batsmen got out for the 6's punt sad

Keeps Aussies well in it though. This is going to the wire I feel

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Re: Supershark 2012

Ok... 2 Sixes in the powerplay overs and the Auz can bowl then out! Everyone happy with that?

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Re: Supershark 2012

Unfortunately Sri Lanka only managed 1 six sad. So close yet so far.
The Aus win managed to pull me back a bit (although still ended 3 units down)

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Re: Supershark 2012

Round 1 Sevens bets:

5 Units Canada -1.5 vs USA (only got the 8/10 @ Hollies, I see Volt are not priced @ 9/10)
7 units Samoa -21 vs Japan @ 9/10 @ Sportsbet
7 units Fiji -19.5 vs Arg @ 9/10 @ Voltbet
6 units NZ -15.5 vs Aus @ 5/6 @ sportingbet (The line is 17.5 elsewhere)
6 units Wales +5.5 vs France @ 5/6 @Sportingbet
3 Units Kenya win vs Scotland @ 5/6 @ Sportingbet

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Re: Supershark 2012

So far out of my bets that have resulted i'm looking down a few units.

-2 Units on Maggert's 1st round. (ended even and Garrigus -2)
-6 Units on Total 6's in Aus vs Sri (needed 5 and only got 4)
+3 Units on Aus beating Sri.

So, so far im 5 units down (1% of Bankroll)

A great weekend of sport ahead to improve on this smile

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Re: Supershark 2012

For tonights league 2 game in England i'm going Southend

They have beat Rotherham each of the 5 times the two teams have met.

4 Units on Southend @ 10/11 with Sportingbet

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Southend bet was completely wrong, realised that I am going to stick to football leagues that I am aware of even if the stats back up the other league bets.

Luckily though I followed a few punters in  on the St. Helens -22.5 with 5 units.

As well as Adding a 5 unit Wales outright punt @ 2/1 with Volt to my existing +5.5 position (had a really good feeling about this game) and Wales ended up 14-12 winners.

Fiji Let a lot of us down( others not so much, Fearless + Tilting, well done fellas), need my other 7's punts to come through to make it a good nights work.

But BOY do I love staying up and watching sevens WOW big_smile what fun

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Re: Supershark 2012

Added a 5 unit bet on Eng -32.5.

Seeing how SA dominated Uruguay (35-0) and having not seen much of brazil I am assuming that Uruguay will be the stronger team, making -32.5 a worthy punt @ 9/10

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Re: Supershark 2012

Stayed up last night for all of the games (Bar the last 2 because I fell asleep)

But I ended the night 37 units up on all my 7's punts so just over 7% of my bankroll big_smile

Was a great night.

I've added a double bet for the 6 nations for the weekend.

I have no clue which way to go for the Eng vs Ita game so I have left it, but i've got a Scotland +16.5 and Ireland + 13.5 Double with Sportsbet @ just over 11/10. 4 units in.

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Re: Supershark 2012

Cheetahs + 10.5 with Hollies @ 8/10 MAX BET

The Bulls are a team thats on the slide (in my opinion) and it wouldn't surprise me to see them pick up the SA wooden spoon.
Cheetahs on the other hand are starting to gel very nicely and the youngster Johan Goosen is an absolute GEM.

Went for the extra few points for a bit more room, but feel the cheetahs should be more than competitive, if not win the game.

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Re: Supershark 2012

Also jumped on Tuks - 19 against TUT. I know the game is only monday but I am not sure this price will last to long.

6 units with Sportingbet @ 5/6

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Re: Supershark 2012

Supershark15 wrote:

Cheetahs + 10.5 with Hollies @ 8/10 MAX BET

The Bulls are a team thats on the slide (in my opinion) and it wouldn't surprise me to see them pick up the SA wooden spoon.
Cheetahs on the other hand are starting to gel very nicely and the youngster Johan Goosen is an absolute GEM.

Went for the extra few points for a bit more room, but feel the cheetahs should be more than competitive, if not win the game.

Cheetahs were HORRENDOUS, Bulls played well but the Cheetahs couldn't win a line out and were well beaten. Quite a big loss.

Looking to bounce back early tomorrow morning.

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Re: Supershark 2012

Hi all.

This weekend was action packed and didn't even get close to all my bets down onto the forum.

7's was a struggle but backing Canada (shot RB) and Kenya put me into profit.

I backed over 4.5 sixes again in the cricket (Aus India) and it came through with 3 balls to spare. Dhonis monster 112m hit was beautiful to watch big_smile

Arron Baddeleys top 5 finish helped a lot as well.

Ended the week 100 units up (give or take a few haven't worked spreadsheet out 100% yet) which is a 20% improvement in the bankroll. I have withdrawn all winnings from my accounts, and have to deposit into sportingbet (damn in play markets, get me everytime!!) . But the 100 units up is including my loss in sporting so a very good 1st week smile.

Will try to post all of my picks in future this weekend was just so action packed it made it difficult.

Today I'm on:

Maties -9.5 with volt and -10.5 with sporting
Tuks -19.5 with sporting and -21.5 with Sportsbet.

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Re: Supershark 2012

Hi all.

This weekend was action packed and didn't even get close to all my bets down onto the forum.

7's was a struggle but backing Canada (shot RB) and Kenya put me into profit.

I backed over 4.5 sixes again in the cricket (Aus India) and it came through with 3 balls to spare. Dhonis monster 112m hit was beautiful to watch big_smile

Arron Baddeleys top 5 finish helped a lot as well.

Ended the week 100 units up (give or take a few haven't worked spreadsheet out 100% yet) which is a 20% improvement in the bankroll. I have withdrawn all winnings from my accounts, and have to deposit into sportingbet (damn in play markets, get me everytime!!) . But the 100 units up is including my loss in sporting so a very good 1st week smile.

Will try to post all of my picks in future this weekend was just so action packed it made it difficult.

Today I'm on:
Maties -9.5 with volt and -10.5 with sporting
Tuks -19.5 with sporting and -21.5 with Sportsbet.

Supershark15
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Re: Supershark 2012

If the TUKS play comes off I am considering backing UCT to beat UJ.

They were so poor last week that I reckon their coach gave them what for and I'm sure being current champions they will bounce back strong.

UJ also werent that impressive so game could be 50/50.

But I will only back it If my big punt for TUKS - 19 comes in

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Re: Supershark 2012

Just for an interest in the ENG vs PAK game I've gone with

Shahid Afridi top PAK bowler @ around 3/1 with BetX

I feel that the pakis should win the game and might back them in play if I get the timing right smile

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Re: Supershark 2012

Gone for over 260.5 at betX.

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Re: Supershark 2012

That was painful... Needed 1 off the last ball (which, unless there is a wicket is usually a dead cert) and england don't manage it.

Yet another cap I've missed by the 0.5. Ahhh.

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Re: Supershark 2012

Ok not going to be posting on this thread anymore, because half the time I am double posting on the events thread as well.

So just going to be putting my bets on the threads created by you guys (or If one hasn't been started I will do so)

smile

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