Great post Southpaw and I look forward to those tips.

No interest yet in the F1 for me (last year this time I had grabbed the 50/1 about Button pre season) but I like Vettel despite the relaibility problems at Red Bull.

Going to shop around for the best price

well after some chaotic qualifying sessions earlier today, the bookmakers have taken no chances and there really isn't much value about in most markets . Main reasons for this are:

the uncertainty over weather conditions for Sunday,
some of the top drivers starting well down the grid,
all teams getting choice of starting tyres tomorrow (some sort of ruling due to wet qualifying conditions).

POINTS MARKET:

Hamilton was my pick as soon as qualifying was over but you'll be lucky to get 4/10. I'm pretty sure that he'll get a top 10 finish, but 4/10 is no value.

I think so much depends on the weather that it's worth waiting closer to race. If it's wet - Nico Hulkenberg is worth a punt at around 7/10 (WSB). Betxchange have him at 18/10 right now which is clearly an error, if it's still there in morning then deserves to be snapped up.

PODIUM MARKET

A real long shot this 1, he is no value for the points market but Hamilton, if he keeps cool, can slice thru this field and is my outsider pick for a podium. Hamilton @ 4/1 with WSB or Betxchange.

OTHER MARKETS

13/20 for under 16 clasified finishers with WSB will be worth a punt if it looks like a wet race.

28/10 on Hispania Racing team having the 1st race retirement (WSB or Betxchange( is also a decent punt for a team that is still very inexperienced in all areas and wet or extremely hot conditions could spell problems for their cars.

hoping for an exciting, competitive race!

China GP Sunday. Bets as follows:

Points(top 10) Finish - hoping to make it 4 from 4, but this 1 looks toughest so far as the top teams have started to sort out mechanical issues, so makes it tougher for the value to come through on the guys in places 11 to 16 who I would punt. Nonetheless:

Jaime Alguersuari @ 6/4 top 10 finish - (if you can hunt around there's some 2/1 available in UK, but 6/4 with WorldofSport) Loves the wet, starts from P12, has made up on average 5 places each race this season.

Outright race winner - hard to go against Red Bull but 4/6 too short for a Vettel when rain is forecast. Instead - Lewis Hamilton @ 13/2 (WorldofSport). A few technical issues in final qualifying, if those are sorted out he's the 1 to give Vettel a race.

rain = chaos, another crazy race to follow. Hamilton 2nd, took him e/w in end, but not big stakes, and down on the race as really fancied Alguersuari for top 10 and was main bet. He was P5 after 1st downpour and P8 after 2nd downpour and Top 10 finish was cruising, don't know what happened but his speed went down to Ford Bantum standards last 10 laps.

F1 Spanish GP Sunday. Weather looks mostly cloudy, small chance of rain, but likely to stay dry for race. Punts below:

Red Bull look super-quick, and although they've been in this position before and blown it come race time, i'm going to back 1 of them to come right. Which 1? Well for me has to be Vettel over Webber.

Win market: Sebastian Vettel @ 6/4 (available at Great Odds).

Points Finish:

We missed out 1st time in season last time in China on the points market, and as hard as I look there just isn't too much value about for this race. Still given success so far on this market feel like it's worth a go and think this is a bit of value. Sutil is P11 on grid, only needs to make up 1 spot.

Sutil points finish @ 4/5 (available at Great Odds)

Total Classified finishers:

I always feel that the return to European tracks is more suitable for all teams, and expect, barring a major pile-up or lots of rain, to see the total finishers on the high side compared to season so far. Recommended bet:

More than 17.5 classified finishers @ 16/10, available at Hollywood.

SHOT South, Sutil comfortably in the points and take it there were 19 finishers? Shame about the wrong Red Bull man, Vettel did well to finish from what I saw

Monaco GP today, always a spectacle and exciting race. Hoping to follow up last weekends good results. Punts as follows:

Points Finish (top 10):

A bit dissapointed by the odds put up by SA bookies that have actually priced up on this market, a bit cramped. Ladbrokes are standout in UK on every driver so that's where the value is. But that aside, am going for Alonso to make up a huge amount of places - he starts from the pit lane after a crash yesterday, but before that he was fastest in practice and loves this track. Starting from pit lane is not as bad as it sounds at Monaco (i think Schumacher finished 5th a few years ago after starting in pits) - a few yellow flags for accidents and he'll be right there.

Bet: Fernando Alonso points finish @ 17/20 )(great odds).

Win Market:
Havn't got involved in this market too many times this season, but thought there might be a bit of value for a small stake. Am going with Ferrari again but this time Massa, who was very fast in qualifying and can give us a good run for our money today.

Bet: Felipe Massa to win @ 12/1 (WSB, Betxchange, Great Odds).

Total classified finishers:

We came good on the overs last week, but Monaco is a completely different test for a lot of these new teams, and I expect quite a few retirements. I'm a bit touch and go whether there will be enough to land the spoils, but will have a go anyway and hope the guys getting caught up aren't the Ferrari lads above!

Bet: Under 15.5 classified finishers @ 17/20 (great odds, hollywood).

shot mackem, 2 main bets arrived, small stake on Massa a loser but a great result overall. 

Just hope Red Bull don't continue to dominate for remainder of season, want championship race to stay interesting as long as possible.

I am a bit confused at the moment.. Yesterday I put a points finish bet on Sebastian Buemi at Betxchange.. This morning reading on Supersport that Schumacher got a 20sec penalty and that means Buemi moved into 10th and getting a point. Now according to me that's a win.

So I went to my statement and there stands lose, and in the event status it stands there Top 8. So Buemi finished 10th, but I bet on a points finish, and 10th you get a point..

Surely it's confusing. Am I now wrong because there stands in the event status Top 8, I didn't even see it when I placed my bet, or are they because a points finish is till 10?

Good work South, with the S14 winding down it might be time to follow this thread alot more!

Keep it up mate 

King I quickly read up on the Schumacher penalty and have not been able to draw a clear conclusion http://www.sportinglife.com/formula1/ne … acher.html

From the article it is not clear whether or not Schumi was originally given 6th and then demoted or if the 20 seconds were taken off straight away and your man got into the points.

I did look at the results on Supersport last night and he was shown as 6th suggesting he only got demoted afterwards but that may not be the case.

The talk of appeals etc is further evidence of why the podium rule is needed but I am not sure which side of it you fall. Will be interesting to hear from someone like Southpaw who won the race and certainly worth confirming from your side.

All of the above my opinion and understanding only and I stand open to correction.

See that they fifxed it. Well done to Betxchange..

Morning guys,

Turkish GP today

Trying to keep the run going on the points market! I have to dash to play football in an hour so a brief summary of the 2 markets i'm playing today:

Points Finish:

Quite a few teams made small changes here and there, but sometimes it's best to stick to what you know, which is what Adrian Sutil has done - decided to not add some changes his fellow driver took and results show, he's 7 places ahead of Luizi in P11 for qualifying. He could easily made it into Q3, times all very close.
Sutil has done it for me before this season in points market and has made up plenty places in past. Think he's a bit of value given he only needs to make up 1 place.

Bet: Adrian Sutil points finish @ 11/10 (available at Great Odds)

To win the race:

All the talk has been of Webber v Hamilton this weekend, but i'm sticking with Sebastian Vettel again. He was fastest in Q1 and Q2, and i think he's more focussed this week on what he needs to do to get ahead of his teammate. There's is a huge rivalry going on now between him and Webber, and i think the younger Vettel can fight back today after losing out last few races to his Aussie teammate. Hamilton is a threat as always, but still think Red Bull have the slight edge.

Bet: Sebastian Vettel to win race @ 4/1 (available at VC bet)

Not getting involved in total finishers, not had enough time to read up on what teams have been changing of late and Turkish GP stats. I would probably say though that over 17.5 finishers would be the bet today in this market.

Canadian GP from Montreal today, evening start for SA/UK viewers which is a nice change.

Going for the 3 markets i normally play - 2 have been hugely profitable so far this season, and hopefully some luck on the winners market today!

Hamilton is on pole with the 2 Red Bulls right behind, and Alonso in the mix.

Total Classified Finishers

Clear weather forecast, and I've read a the official comments post-qualifying for the the non-competitive teams, and they're all talking about finishing the race as a target. I thought most bookies would price up around +17.5 @ 10/11, but there's some + 15.5 @ 3/4 available, which although it a bit cramped, it does really stand out.

Bet: Total classified finishers over 15.5 @ 3/4 (available at Great Odds)

or, if you're looking for a bigger price (but 1 more driver to be classified) - over 16 @ 12/10 (Sportsbet).

Race Winner

After the shocker last time out in Turkey with Vettel going well only for him and his teammate Webber to crash into each other, I said to myself I'd steer clear of the winners market for a while. But just can't resist another go Vettel. I think Red Bull have got the better tyre choice for race start than Hamilton and Button, which could give Vettel a great chance to get into the lead early on. He's let me down twice alredy this season, but @ 9/2 he's worth a couple units.

Bet: Vettel to win race @ 9/2 (available at SportsBet.co.za)

Points Finish

This market has fantastic from a punting perspective this season, have only missed out on a profit in 1 race so far, and most wins have been comfortable. Today however i'm not as confident as normal - I have a rule that the price I take on a points finish must be at least 8/10, and the bookies are not giving anything away today.

I was going to go Schumacher in P13, but best price available is 4/6, and only with 1 or 2 bookies. However still want to have a punt, and my value choice is Petrov in the other Renault. He has won for me once this season already, he did have a poor race last time in Turkey, but he's got a decent car and if he can get near his teammate Kubica's pace, he's got a great chance to make up places.

Bet: Vitaly Petrov to finish in points @ 7/4
(available in UK with Blue Square, but may need to take a lesser price with SA bookies, unfortunately a few also haven't priced up this market).

Overs arrived with plenty to spare.
Petrov had a shocker, collision 1st corner.
Vettel - still don't know what happened, went from 1st to 4th when he was flying, poor team tactics.

overall small loss for me.

liking the new pic Popgun! 

European GP from Valencia street circuit Sunday:

Was planning to get involved with Vettel (for 4th week running!) but his P1 on qualifying has him at evens to win, and that's not a good price to get involved in. These markets offer far better value:

Points Finish

I'm feeling quite bullish about Nico Rosberg getting into the points tomorrow. He was fastest in Friday practive but had a poor qualifying session and starts from 12th. He's finished every race and comfortably in the points in all bar 1 race this season and he's definitely got it in him to make up a couple spots tomorrow. The price I've found also helps - Great Odds go 4/5 which is standout, he's generally 4/6 or 4/7 with most bookies.

Bet: Nico Rosberg points finish @ 4/5 (available at Great Odds). Having a fairly decent sized bet on this 1.

Fastest Lap

Haven't got involved in this market this season but seem what could be some value at a big price. Robert Kubica always seems to find himself racing in clean air around the P3 to P6 position during race time, which gives him an opportunity to put in some decent lap times. He's also very quick on street circuits like Valencia and Monaco, and i think he could go very close in the fastest lap market. He's a big price so don't need huge stakes on this 1:

Bet: Robert Kubica fastest lap @ 14/1 (available at Betxchange and WSB). Smallish bet on this 1.

Still not decided on the total finishers market yet, tempted by the 9/10 over 17.5 with Great Odds, but street circuits can be brutal on the weaker teams so not 100% confident just yet. Might get involved closer to race..

Race should finish just before the England Germany game so that would be good timing!

Rosberg now 4/7 and too short for me. Like the Kubica 14/1 fastest lasp, watched him go out late in Q1 and looks ok.

guys a bit of a late post as am away this weekend, but some value spotted - Jenson Button is 4/6 with Great Odds for point finish. That's a great price - he struggled in Q2 but with his car he can slice thru at least 5 guys in front of him from P14 in no time.

Had 10 units Button @ 4/6 Points Finish.

shot popgun, wish i'd got up earlier to post! I was tempted for an even bigger punt of 25 units plus when I'd seen that price but was worried a loose cannon like Kobayashi could take out Button on 1st corner. He made 6 places up on 1st lap - don't think we'll see those odds on a Mclaren for points finish again this year!!

dont know if anyone follows nascar but Im having a small punt on Juan Montonya to win the brickyard400 9/1@BetXchange or 10/1@GO
He qualified on pole yesterday making it three front-row starts in four outings at this circuit.Last year the columbian led majority of the race only to be penalised for speeding in the pits.He has yet to taste victory an oval circuit in his NASCAR career(did win the INDY500 when he was in indycar) but I reckon he triumphs today at a circuit he knows very well.I think its worth a small punt @ 10/1.

For F1 I  like Lap of 1st Retirement-After 1.5 laps 2.1 @ BetXchange and an extremely small bet on Pedro de la Rosa to be classified 2.00 @BetXchange.He has only finished 3 races this year but i reckons he takes it to the finish.

The standing start of a F1 race has to be the most exhilarating  moment in all of sports.Nothing comes close,maybe a new zealand haka,lol!

Could be dangerous start,especially if someone has a slow getaway like vettel did in britain and almost taking Webber out.Im also concerned about the first turn which is a fast sweeping right hander (just like Silverstone).We should see agressive & hopefully professional driving at the start.

Good work South!

Regarding those Ferrari tactics I can imagine Massa punters must be up in arms.

There is good news though for those who backed Massa for the straight win with Mbet as they are refunding all Massa win bets as they don't feel a fair betting contest took place.

No obligation on them to do this but it will certainly ease the pain of any Massa backers so well done to them.

Great stuff Mbet!
Great stuff South - got to start slip streaming your F1 bets will make sure I bet with Mbet as these teams can't be trusted

But sport is about the $$$ so I can understand Ferrari's tactics. Sportsmanship does not win trophies ... Sadly

Wolf I think you make a very good point.

Trying to get teams not to use tactics is a bit like trying to ban drinking or gambling, it simply goes underground anyway.

Having just come through the Tour de France I was on occassion screwed over by the tactics of teams (but also benefitted sometimes) and as a punter you go in there understanding that.

They would do well to do the same in F1.

South, looking forward to you insights for this weekend - Hungary.
Collected last week on 1st retire after 1.5 laps - love that market coz so quick to see profit or loss
Reb Bull and Ferrari to fly this weekend, think Mclaren will battle.
Post your views for 'placing' and 'finishers' South and sure to get a couple in your slipstream

don't normally get involved before end of qualifying, but Vettel looks so quick, taken the 4/5 for him to be on pole - 6 units Vettel on pole @ 4/5.

cheers Popgun, some gunpowder collected for Sunday's bets:

Hungarian GP Sunday:

Points Finish:

Sticking with my favourite market this season again. I like the look of Rubens Barrichello for a top 10 finish. He starts from 12th, but the difference between the guys from 9th to 12th was 0.05 seconds in Q2, and Rubens got held up quite badly. He was 5th in practice and I fancy him to go well on Sunday. Don't expect him to make up places immediately, more as race goes on.

Bet: 5 units Barrichello top 10 finish @ 10/11 (available at Great Odds).

Match Bets:

Going well down the field for this market - the 2 Lotus drivers are 20th (Kovalainen) and 21st (Trulli) - however it's Trulli who I think will come out on top in the race. The slow corners here suit his style, he also has a decent record over the years in this race.

Bet: 4 units Trulli\Kovalainen @ 11/10 (available at Great Odds)

Still undecided about total classified finishers market, will post in morning on that 1.

Other markets worth looking at that i'm tempted to get involved in include fastest Lap - Vettel is generally available @ 7/4, which looks decent and a better price than race winner which is odds-on.

that first retirement market always catches my interest popgun, but in the end I tend to go hunting elsewhere. It's a good price though, yes it is a tricky 1st corner at Hungary - your danger today will be Kobayashi from 23rd after his penalty, he'll be flying into that corner looking to make up some places!

Decided the Fastest Lap for Vettel is a good bet, gone 4 units Vettel Fastest Lap @ 7/4 (UK bookie) - there is 18/10 at Sportsbet.co.za, and 16/10 with most SA bookies.

If you're looking for a big price somewhere, this price in 1st retirement market is standout compared to all other bookies - Great Odds go 10/1 on Sauber being 1st to have a retirement, generally between 7/2 and 5/1 elswhere. Have taken 1 unit @ 10/1.

I'm still undecided on total classified market, that 1st corner worries me. 

I'm probably leaning to overs, there is 18/10 over 19 classified finishers with Sportsbet.co.za, that's a good price, 12/10 elsewhere. Also contemplating this market - 11/10 Safety car during race (Great Odds), hasn't been much safety car action of late - but with the Massa incident last year, the race controller could be a bit over zealous today, and that 1st corner adds to chances.

Looked at Kobyashi for top 10 and thought from 23rd would be too tough - he ended in top 10. Trust your gut

shot lads  , hope you made some money! If I hadn't finished nicely up today I would have felt robbed! The safety car hurt a couple drivers, but none worse than Barrichello and Trulli, both lost out on a chunk of places in end, but Rubens came back to nail Schumacher for 10th - WTF Schumacher was doing i don't know, nearly put Rubens into the wall at fastest place on track! I think he's going to get a ban for that, was a disgrace.

Good race though, and good call on that 1st retirement again popgun, it's a nice quick little earner!

Agreed, lovely little quick earner (or loser ) but great watching them all get thru the 1st corner and hang in there for 2 laps.
Shumi is an idiot, not the 1st time he has tried that sort of thing either. Should have stayed retired.

Nice post South. Agreed on Rosberg, took the bet but was worried about his 5 place penalty. Q'ed 12th and thought he would start 17th but I see other also penalised and he starts 14th. Gonna double up on that bet
Bring on some rain and a SC
Can't find my quick and nasty - 1st retirement lap 1 or after ??
Kovalainen starts in 13th and is 33/1 for a point finish - not a great bet but some value. South?

I took Kubica earlier in the week for a podium as I heard there was a good chance of rain and that Renault were out with a few improvements. So it would be great if that arrives, but I think I might need rain and/or a safety car to help my cause!

Those look like good bets South. I've followed you on all of them. Will wait to see if there is indeed some rain around come the last few minutes before the start. In that case there could be some good money to be made on outsiders making the top 10 or top 6.

Needed more rain for Heiki to land but no real damage at that price.
Rosberg you beauty and Safety Car onto Liverpool double was nice to collect - could only find 5/10 safety car and Liverpool double made it 9/10.
Keep looking at Kobayashi for a points finish - he was 18/10 yesterday - but never pull the trigger. Maybe next time
Great calls again South!

Hmmm, looking forward to it already. Koba and Force India it will be!

mid-practice right now so most bookies suspended, but my opinion on the Force India's not changed for this week Popgun, fancy both to be in the points and pushing top 6.

With you on 19.5 cars to finish, conditions good.
Liuzzi starts well down - big call South - but who am I to argue.
Kobayashi was in my top 10 plan for the 1st time at 2/1 for points BUT starts from Pit lane - so no bet!

DOH! Hamilton out on 1st lap

Lewis out lap 1
20 cars finish
Liuzzi just out of points - 2 secs behind 10th in 12th.
WOW, did not see that Ferrari performance coming!

Overs saved the day for me too - small loss.
Think Lewis was gonna fly!
Result does make for an exciting finish to the season though

Not many bookies awake yet and very few with match bets vs Timo.
Got Timo over Kovalainen at 19/20 at GO - q'ed in front of him and hope he can fly
Kobayashi to finish in the points at 12/10 at WSB - q'ed in 10th and he has been good at collecting points.
Forecast is for thunderstorms so safety car a cert but only 1/4.
Under 17.5 finishers with GO at 3/4 will be my play

Timo and Koba crash out
Safety cars galore
15 finishers
Bara in the points - nice play South
Massa ends in 10th from the pits!

Japan GP Sunday:

Got this am to watch qualifying only to see it's been raining heavy there, and they've just taken to decision to move qualifying to tomorrow!   So you've got qualifying 1st thing in morning and race later in day - so around 2am/3am qualifying, and then 7am/8am race (UK/SA times) - that's going to cause some chaos, and there's still chance of rain during race tomorrow, and the track seems to be holding the water really badly (lots of drivers complaining how bad it was this am).

So with above in mind, I'm recommending 2 early bets -

Safety car during race - Hollywood have 17/20 on YES, don't think that price will last, have had 10 units.

Total classified finishers - Hollywood go 7/4 under 18, that price is same as 1 or 2 bookies in UK, would have preferred a price for under 19 finishers, but tempted to go for the 18, going to have a think about that 1 for now.

LOL,
Took the view that it would be raining and took a chunky bet on Less than 18.5 finishers. Also got Safety Car = YES.
Flicked to channel to see the sun shining brightly and NO CHANCE of rain. Perfect racing conditions.
Off the start line, Petrov crashes out taking 1 with him. 1st corner Massa crashes out taking 2 with him. Only 19 riders left and a safety car already.
Kubica is following the SC and loses one of his wheels. 18 riders left and bet arrived before 2 laps concluded
Punting Gods were watching today:)

Korean GP Sunday (8am start):

Red Bull front row again, there's a chance of some rain tomorrow which could mix things up a bit. It's last chance saloon for 1 driver tomorrow in terms of his Championship chances - Lewis Hamilton really needs a win here, and he might be worth an ew punt on this track, which is full of high-speed straights. Going for following punts:

Race winner & podium:

Hamilton will be going all out tomorrow, which spells agressive driving and also possibly driving himself off the track. But just think this track suits his car, even though the Red Bulls are on pole, he's worth a few units investment.

Bet: 1 unit win, 3 units place Hamilton (6.75/1 and 11/10, Mbet)

Safety Car:

As this is the 1st ever race on this track, i'm siding with safety car coming out at some point. The track has a lot of dirt on the surface, it still resembles a building site in some parts, and could spell a few incidents. Hollywood are standout again on this market, the 0.83/1 is decent, 1/2 is general best elsewhere.

Bet: 10 units YES Safety car @ 0.83/1 (Hollywood)

Match Bet:

Seen some value here. Mbet have Kubica as favourite to beat Massa, however reading the team quotes after qualifying, Kubica seems to have been on the limit, whereas Massa and Ferrari where really dissapointed and thought they'd be fighting for front row. Massa is starting 6th, Kubica 8th, and Massa was quicker in all 3 Q sessions. I personally would have Massa as around 6/10 favourite in a match bet between 2.

Bet: 5 units Massa to beat Kubica @ Evens (Mbet).

Going to sit out the points market this race, nothing really stands out for 1st time in ages (maybe Kobayashi popgun?! 11/8 seems best around). Just under 20 units down, hopefully a good race to watch.

Hey South, a little stretched so got nothin on
Was keen on Safety and less than 17.5. Would also have taken Koba for points but hey.
Nice calls from you mate!

Fantastic preview South! Love your work

Go Lewis you good thing!

Update on Points Market - no 4/5 available now on Rosberg but Mbet go 7/10 and that seems fair - had 6 units Rosberg points finish @ 7/10.

Also like this market - 1st lap leader, fancy the Hulk to be a bit slow out the gates from P1 and Vettel to pass him, 1st corner is a great place to overtake and then some nice straights - 2.5 units 1st lap leader Vettel @ 2/1 (Mbet)

Final showdown on Sunday - Abu Dhabi GP

It's looking like an absolute storming finish that F1 fans hoped for, with the championship still up in the air. Vettel has qualified on pole for Sundays day/night race, with Hamilton, Alonso, Button behind him with Webber suprisingly down in 5th. Latest odds for championship are:

Alonso 8/15
Vettel 4/1
Webber 6/1
Hamilton 25/1

But onto the race itself and my only punts for tomorrow so far:

Race winner & Podium finish

Don't normally bet on this market but allowing myself a punt on Mark Webber, who i'd love to see win the championship. Webber is potentially in with the last chance of his career to win it and the extremely likeable Aussie would be a worthy champion in my opinion. He'd need Alonso to have a poor race, but i'm still going to back him to make up 2 places and an small punt on the win, even though I think he'd need Vettel to crash out to get the win.

Bet: 5 units Webber podium @ 7/4 (available at Voltbet), 0.5 unit Webber win @ 12/1 (SportingBet)

Might get a few more bets down in morning, but limited involvement as might miss part of race so don't want to get too involved at this stage.

I considered a Vettel bet for the Championship but realistically did not believe Alonso would finish outside of the top 4.

A great race by all accounts and thanks for your F1 coverage Southpaw - you must have finished the season nicely up?