The Cheetahs are coming off a couple of narrow defeats and they host a Lions side full of confidence after a good away win over the Bulls. The big question though is can we make some money on the game?
The Cheetahs have lost to WP (home) and the Sharks (away) in successive weeks and the common denominator is that at one point they looked like winning both games before letting this slip. They do have 3 home games to look forward to in the semifinal run in but they will know that defeat to the Lions would leave them with a huge task. Coach Drotske has made a number of changes with Tewis de Bruyn starting at 10 for Sias Ebersohn and veteran flanker Hendro Scholtz gets the nod at flank ahead of Raubenheimer. Francois Uys replaces the injured Andries Ferreria at lock.
The Lions started 7 point underdogs away to the Bulls but they turned on a display of attractive rugby to beat the cap and win the match. It was the best way to put the shock home defeat to the Griquas behind them and was also their first away victory having previously lost to the Sharks in Durban. The Lions have named an unchanged side for this clash.
Head to Head – Cheetahs at home
2011: 25-25 (Draw, 50 points)
2010: 43-37 (Cheetahs by 6, 80 points)
2009: 20-16 (Cheetahs by 4, 36 points)
2008: 22-18 (Cheetahs by 4, 40 points)
The Lions won 43-20 in Joburg in week 1
Betting
Cheetahs 7/10 Betxchange, WSB, Hollywood
Draw 28/1 Hollywood, Betxchange
Lions 16/10 Sportingbet
Handicap
Cheetahs -2.5 at 9/10 WSB, Betxchange, Hollywood
Lions +3.5 19/20 Voltbet
BETTING ANGLE
I started this preview without any idea of what I was going to punt but I now find myself leaning towards the Lions. They have a poor recent record in Bloemfontein but I was impressed by them at Loftus. The Cheetahs have made a habit of losing close games and I am not convinced by de Bruyn at 10 and man for man believe the Lions have an edge especially on the bench. The one area where I am a bit concerned is the battle for the loose ball where Brussow could quite possibly dominate for the home team.
The 16/10 about a Lions win looks very generous but I also fancy the +3.5 at 19/20 and will grab a bit of action on both of those.
BET: 1.5 units Lions win at 16/10 Sportingbet
Bet: 4 units Lions +3.5 at 19/20 Voltbet
I am also going to throw a speculative half unit at the Cheetahs/Lions Halft Time/Full Time market at 8/1. No real stats to back this up but I like the Lions bench and if they are behind at the break they look capable of turning things around and the price stands out.
BET: 0.5 units Cheetahs/Lions HT/FT at 8/1 Voltbet
The points stats between the sides are fairly erratic although if pushed would lean towards a high scoring game here based mainly on the Lions style of play. I will wait for quotes and ponder until closer to kick off, more on this and bets from other punters in our forum closer to kickoff.
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