Making his first appearance on Goodforthegame since his very successful Six Nations rugby campaign, Simon Emery channels his attention to turning a profit in Race 7 at Greyville on Saturday afternoon as he weighs up the chances of all 20 starters.  

As a consequence of the 2010 World Cup this years Durban July was shifted out and now coincides with the last day of the 2009/10 season.

This year’s line up is very strong and as the betting suggests the race is potentially a minefield for punters.

The Champ Pocket Power (9/1) will have it all to do with top weight and draw 17; however he’ll probably be running on at the end and is certainly not without a place chance.

Former Summer Cup winner Rudra (70/1) is the 1^st of Mike De Kock’s 7 runners. Although a big strapping horse he’s not well in at the weights plus he’s drawn in the bushes at 19 which leaves him with too much to do I’d say.

Last year’s winning trainer Glen Kotzen saddles Fabiani (70/1), although he ran very well to finish a 2 length 5^th behind River Jetez in the Met, he’s been a little off form in his last 3 runs. However he’s drawn well at 4 and that perhaps gives him a small place chance.

Well travelled Kevin Shea appears to be on the De Kock stable’s 1^st choice Irish Flame (9/2) who proved his 10 length demolition of the Derby field was no fluke with 2 subsequent wins in Natal. An impressive sort with a good turn of foot means he might just attempt to steal a march in the short Greyville straight, however with 56kg I’ll give the 3 year old a place chance only.

Fort Vogue (8/1) was certainly one of the money horses a few weeks back but after failing to over haul Flying Tristram in his last start has left his supporters a little unsure what to expect. I’m not certain whether he’ll stay 2200m but jumping from 11 and with Marcus in the irons he should have every chance.

Bold Silvano (11/2) is a half a kg better off with Irish Flame in the Daily News for a head beating. This 5 time winner has thrived since relocating from PE, has Delpech on his back and jumps from barrier 2. He should be thereabouts but like the favourite I think he’ll have too much to do.

Bold Silvano and Irish Flame are pitted against each other in the Free2Play Durban July Competition at www.sportspicks.co.za – great prizes up for grabs.

The Herman Brown trained Orbison (16/1) is a smashing looking 3 year old gelding who won his first real test when overcoming Galileo’s Galaxy at Clairwood recently. However he’s drawn horribly at 16 and the fact that his last win was probably flattering makes him a hard horse to back with any confidence.

Red Rake (80/1) has a decent draw at 7, but as he’s a strong pace setter, he might well be sacrificed for the rest of the De Kock camp. Expect him to be swallowed up at the top of the straight.

Ancestral Fore (16/1) has come on in leaps and bounds since relocating to Mike De Kock and was most impressive when winning the Gold Cup here at Greyville over 3200m in his last start. One of three greys in the race he should have plenty of sentimental support but could just be a little out of his depth here.

River Jetez (7/1) has had a faultless preparation and will enjoy the services of former champion jockey Jeff Lloyd (who amazingly has never won a July). Drawn well at 9 and with a decent weight of 55kg she appears to have a lot going for her and rates a top chance if she doesn’t leave her run too late.

Aslan (16/1) represents the powerful Sean Tarry stable and was a little disappointing behind Flying Tristram last time out. However the form of that race could prove deceiving as it was run at a false pace and he’s not without a chance from a good draw at 10.

Mike Bass’s Love is in the Air (80/1) is a talented filly who jumps from gate 5. However she appears way out of her depth here and can’t be followed in this company.

Happy Valley (16/1) has found steady support in the last few days and he’s my fancy to go really close if the race hasn’t come too soon in his career, (only shed his maiden tag in Feb). He’s improving fast and was only beaten a diminishing length by Irish Flame last time out and is 2kg better off. His draw is a slight concern at 14 but I fancy this one to be right there at the finish.

Captain Scott (80/1) is the final grey in the field and is drawn at 15; his 4 year old season hasn’t been quite what was expected and appears to be held on current form. However at his very best a place chance could be a possibility and bookmakers have reported some money for him when priced at the 100/1 mark.

Lizarre (18/1) is another new addition to the De Kock stable and is a lightly raced 3 year old. He is drawn on the extreme outside of the field at 20, close to the beach front. However he has Pierre Strydom on board and if managed well we could well see him flying from the back of the pack for minor money.

Russian Sage (25/1) has had 2 prep runs with Justin Snaith since campaigning overseas. He’s nicely weighted and if he doesn’t find the distance a touch too far he might just prove a decent outsider.

Flying Tristram (30/1) beat Fort Vogue in what looked like a false run race last time out. He’s drawn wide, doesn’t appear as though he’ll stay and should run out of gas in the home stretch.

Service Ace (100/1) is only a 1 time winner and is probably very lucky to have made the field. He looks held on form although he does have a light weight and is drawn at 1. However he’s probably out of his depth.

Vertical Takeoff (80/1) is Sean Tarry’s 2^nd runner and is a decent stayer; however he appears as though he’ll be somewhat outclassed in this line-up.

Finally Goat (70/1) is the 3^rd of 3 fillies in the race and although at the weights she might have a chance it appears unlikely given what she has shown to date.

VERDICT

All in all a tough one and it’s obvious we won’t want to spend the rent money on what looks a very open race. However I’ve never been one that shies away from adversity and my staking plan is as follows:

2 Units Eachway Happy Valley and River Jetez.

1 Unit Eachway Lizarre, Aslan and Russian Sage.

I will also be looking at working a quartet, trifecta and perhaps few swingers around those selections and Happy Valley and River Jetez in particular.   

Other Durban July articles:

Sibling Rivalry: Pocket Power v River Jetez

Neil Andrews – the 3 year olds have it all to do at the weights

See what other punters fancy here

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