Host of “Monday Night Football” and “Betting World” Neil Andrews* shares his views on next weekends Durban July as he ponders the 3 year old challenge, the likely size of the quartet and why Terry Paine and Pocket Power are so much alike (and gelding has nothing to do with it).  

Brent Graham** from Goodforthegame caught up with Neil on his weekly radio show and this article is a summary of Neil’s thoughts – click here to listen to the full interview.

Neil on the revised date
With World Cup fever out of the way the sleepless nights have begun for Neil and for the next 9 days he will be thinking of little else. The shifting of the race by a month offers plenty of food for punters with the 3 year olds being a month older but also having been through a busier period than they would normally have experienced.

The whole Kwazulu Natal feature race season has been turned on its head and trainers have had to plot new routes for their charges with the aim of peaking at the end of July rather than at the beginning.

Neil on the strong hand of Bass and De Kock

Brent put it to Neil that 2 trainers having over 50% of the field cannot be healthy for SA racing but Neil was more concerned about the tote and the fact that punters could put 2 horses in and get 11 in the Pick 6 and Jackpot. He also pointed out that Mike De Kock had recently picked up many of the horses and no doubt many of the owners had their eyes on the riches of Dubai where De Kock had proven himself a master.

Pocket Power the Terry Paine of Horse Racing?
Way past his sell by date but still capable on his day!
The Pocket has top weight, is badly drawn and was a beaten favourite last year but still has to be respected and there has been money for the Champion at odds of 18/1 and 16/1.
In Neil’s words he “would not faint if Pocket Power won” but does not have him earmarked in his top 4.

The current 3 year old crop
Shaheen Shaw who tipped the Met winner River Jetez likes the favourite Irish Flame. Neil though while respecting the quality of this 3 year old crop feels they have it all to do at the weights. He pointed out that the likes of Grey’s Inn had carried 52.5kg to victory while Bush Telegraph famously won under 49.5kg with a starving Garth Puller on his back – Irish Flame is tasked with carrying 56kg and highly fancied Bold Silvano shoulders only 1/2 a kg less so the 3 year olds face a big ask this year and Neil was not that impressed with Irish Flames Derby win.

So who has Neil backed?
Ancestral Fore is his best result having backed wins and places a while back at 100/1 (the colt won the Gold Cup , the first 3 year old to do so since the 70’s and a further indication of the strength of the youngsters in this race) but anyone watching Neil on Telly Track will know that he has been shouting from the roof tops about Fort Vogue for months.

Anton Marcus rides the 4 year old Mike Bass trained entrant and Neil pointed out that while he is nothing flash, the July is not necessarily won by the best horse but often by the best handicapped horse. He has taken plenty of wins and places at odds of 16/1 and 20/1 and is hoping that Marcus keeps him up with the pace so as to avoid coming from too far back on the short Greyville run in.

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Not a bad 100/1 shot
Captain Scott has been the subject of some shrewd money and is not the worst 100/1 shot in the world although he may be more effective over 1600m.

What about Met winner River Jetez?

Two great victories in preparation and the mare has an amazing turn of foot. The “Guvner” Jeff Lloyd rides but Neil reckons Fort Vogue is better handicapped.

About the pace
Happy Valley may race handy to set a decent gallop for the De Kock stable while Flying Tristram may try to get to the front and slow it down, successful tactics when touching off Fort Vogue in their prep run albeit Marcus has jumped ship and rides Fort Vogue now.

Red Rake is a natural front runner who will try to set a sensible but not suicidal tempo. All in all, the pace should be on though giving those coming from behind some chance.

Others that may have a say

Orbison beat many in this field but Neil while not writing off his chances feels he may have run his race in the Champions Cup.
Aslan fluffed his lines in the race won by Flying Tristram but the pace was false and he could be better than the run suggested.

Looking for a spook!
Neil believes the quartet will pay over 10k and all you need is 1 spook in the top 4 to make it play.

He will be structuring his permutations around Fort Vogue, River Jetez, Ancestral Fore and Bold Silvano and will watch the race at the Piggs Peak Casino in Swaziland where he will be doing battle for the All Africa Poker title.

Neil Andrews shares his racing tips on his website www.neilandrews.co.za

*Please note the attached photo may have been airbrushed

**Neil and Brent also chatted about the weekends rugby and the Tour de France and Neil publicly acknowledged Brent as the best rugby tipster in the country – sadly due to technical reasons we were not able to capture this in the podcast. Brent posts his rugby previews on www.goodforthegame.co.za

Click here for our regularly updated Durban July betting

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