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Athletic Club Bilbao bid to overturn a 2-1 deficit when they host Lokomotiv Moscow in the second leg of their Europa League Round of 32 tie on Thursday evening.
Lokomotiv Moscow turned the first leg on its head to take a narrow lead to Bilbao. It was Athletic Club who took a first half lead when the sides met in Moscow a week ago but the Russians came storming back in the second half to leave the tie nicely poised.
Lokomotiv's Europa League matches have generally been high on goals. Five of their six group matches saw at least three goals scored and the Russians failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those matches. They won four group matches including away fixtures at Sturm Graz and AEK Athens whilst they went down 5-3 at Anderlecht. Results alone suggest their matches are open contests and their defensive record suggests attempting to park the bus and defend this lead would be asking be for trouble. Going into that first leg Lokomotiv had not played a competitive match since the Europa League group stage so they could well have “come on for the run” for this return.
Bilbao were reportedly by far the better side in the first period in Moscow but they lost their way after the break. Still, the away goal is a valuable commodity and their home form is pretty solid. Bilbao beat Malaga 3-0 in the Spanish League last weekend to move up to fourth position on the log which would be good enough for Champions League football next season if they can stay there. Domestically they have won five, drawn five and lost two of the Primera Division matches in front of their own supporters. Bilbao also took seven points from three home games in the group stage of this competition, beating PSG 2-0, Slovan Bratislava 2-1 and sharing four goals with Salzburg. They have also made it through to the final of the Copa del Rey where they will meet Barcelona in May and their last seven outings (all competitions) have been high on entertainment with backers of over 2.5 goals collecting on each occasion.
The Betting Match Result (90 minutes)
Athletic Club Bilbao 0.44 Ladbrokes
Draw 7/2 BetXchange
Lokomotiv Moscow 15/2 World Sports Betting
Selected Others (90 minutes)
Under 2.5 goals even money World Sports Betting, Voltbet, Ladbrokes
Over 2.5 goals 8/10 World Sports Betting, BetXchange, Voltbet, Sportingbet
Both teams to score (yes) 11/10 Ladbrokes
Note, odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Not all bookmakers had priced up at the time of writing and don't forget the option to bet “in play” where available.
The Verdict:
I like the chances of goals here and the price for both teams to score is significantly better than that for “overs”. That suits me as I can see the Russians playing on the counter in search of an away goal of their own and I like the idea of having 1-1 running for me. This looks like one of the better bets on the Europa League coupon to me.
Bet: Both teams to score (yes) 11/10 Ladbrokes
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