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Wolfsburg v Freiburg

Written by Chris Sturdy

football.wolfsburg Friday night's televised Bundesliga action features the match between Wolfsburg and Freiburg. The visitors go into the game bottom of the table whilst Wolfsburg's mid table position isn't quite as comfortable as it may seem.

Both these sides drew their respective matches last weekend, Wolfsburg finished locked at 0-0 in their home fixture with high flying Munchengladbach whilst Freiburg shared four goals at home to Werder Bremen, twice coming from a goal down. Let's scrutinize the home and away records and recent form in a bid to identify a winning punt.

Wolfsburg start this game in tenth position on the log with 24 points from 20 Bundesliga outings but the bottom half of the log is tight and a couple of defeats would see them sucked back into the relegation battle. Were it not for their home form, they would really be in trouble as six of their seven league wins have arrived in front of their own supporters. Only two teams have won here this season, Bayern Munich (0-1) early in the campaign and Hertha Berlin (2-3) in October last year. Mainz (2-2) and Munchengladbach (0-0) took a point whilst Wolfsburg have won five games by a single goal margin and cut loose to beat Hannover 4-1 (Hannover reduced to ten men when losing 2-1). It's solid home form but with one exception suggests when Wolfsburg do win, they do so with little to spare. The last three home games have been low scoring affairs (under 2.5 goals) and the split between unders and overs in ten Wolfsburg home games reads five a piece.

Freiburg's only win in their last eight Bundesliga outings came 1-0 at home to fellow strugglers Augsburg in the first match back after the winter break. They have taken just five points from nine away days, a 2-1 win at Nurnburg and 1-1 draw at Hoffenheim in addition to sharing four goals at Augsburg on the opening day of the season. They have shipped an awful lot of goals on their travels including seven at Bayern, five at Schalke and Werder Bremen and four at Cologne and hence seven of their nine road trips have seen at least three goals scored. They have found the target themselves in six of the nine matches but are still looking for a clean sheet on their travels.

Freiburg won 3-0 when the sides met earlier in the season but lost 2-1 on their visit here in the 2010/11 campaign. Four of the last five head to heads have seen backers of over 2.5 goals collect.

The Betting – Match Result

Wolfsburg 15/20 Sportsbet, Hollywood

Draw 26/10 Sportsbet, Voltbet, Hollywood, Sportingbet

Freiburg 4/1 Sportingbet

Selected Others

Under 2.5 Goals 5/4 Voltbet

Over 2.5 Goals 13/20 World Sports Betting, Voltbet

Double Chance Draw/Freiburg 15/10 Sportsbet

Half Time Result, Draw 14/10 World Sports Betting

Odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change. Some bookmakers may not have priced up on all markets at the time of writing.

The Verdict

Having sold their most potent weapon Demba Cisse to Newcastle in the transfer window, Freiburg will do well to avoid relegation this season but they have a new coach and a new look defence and they showed plenty of spirit against Bremen last weekend.

Wolfsburg also had a clear-out in the transfer window and a number of new arrivals came in. Consecutive clean sheets at home suggest they will be hard to beat here and their attack should get more joy here than they did against the water tight Gladbach side at the weekend.

I initially wanted to back “overs” here which is usually a solid proposition in Freiburg away games but the price is short and Wolfsburg's recent home matches have been low on goals. Whilst far from banker material, I'll give the home side the vote although I won't even attempt calling the manner and margin of victory

Bet: Wolfsburg to win, 15/20 Sportsbet, Hollywood

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