The “Race to Dubai” concludes this week when players tackle the Earth Course at the Jumeirah Golf Estates. Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy are disputing favouritism and it is the Nedbank Challenge champion that catches my eye.

Luke Donald is a massive favourite to win the season long “Race to Dubai” and only a McIlroy win with Donald finishing outside of the top 9 can stop him. His game was a little off at Sun City this week no doubt due to 5 weeks without tournament golf and he should be sharper this week but at quotes of around 10/1 he doesn’t appeal.

Last week’s champion Lee Westwood certainly does and he is a top price of 6/1 in this 58 man field. He was sublime in defending his Nedbank Challenge title and his 3^rd round was as fine an example of ball striking I have ever seen. He loves this event having won it in 2009 and he followed that with a 3^rd place in 2010 so the course certainly suits his eye. I would be very surprised were he not in the mix come the back 9 on Sunday.

His rival in the betting Rory McIlroy has some question marks hanging over his health this week and may be worth taking on. He kept himself in the season long order of merit race with a stunning win in Hong Kong but he looked tired at times and has subsequently been on a drip and is waiting results of blood tests. I have learnt in the past not to read too much into these things but I fancied Westwood to finish ahead of him anyway so the 9/10 tie no bet in a 72 hole match play appeals.

You can certainly make a case for a number of other players but my final selection will be Robert Karlsson at 28/1. He was a distant but fast finishing 2^nd to Westwood at Sun City and I was very impressed with his consistency and from tee to green he looked in superb form. He is the defending champion having beaten Poulter in a playoff last season and at current odds he looks worth siding with again.

Betting Strategy

I will have an interest in the Westwood win but my focus will be on the top 5 market where I think the 15/10 is a cracking bet given all that has been said above. I will also take on Rory by backing Westwood to beat him over 72 holes.

2 units Westwood win at 6/1 and 4 units Westwood top 5 at 15/10 with Hollywood

4 units Westwood/McIlroy 72 hole match bet at 9/10 with Betxchange (tie no bet)

1 unit Karlsson win at 28/1 and 3 units Karlsson top 5 at 7/1 with Hollywood and Sportsbet

I am going to throw in a 1 unit punt on Hennie Otto to be the top SA player at 12/1. He won the SA Open and to be frank none of his countrymen are in the greatest of nick. That win may have been a turning point in his career and at the price I can’t do a lot of damage.

1 unit Otto top SA player 12/1 generally available

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