This week marks the last full field event of the West Coast swing, and a strong field heads to Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades for the annual Northern Trust Open.

Looking at the tournament favourites this week, it is no surprise to see Mickelson’s name at the top of the pack. After a few indifferent performances to open up his 2012 campaign, we saw a vintage final round display by Big Phil last week at Pebble. If he plays like that this week, the field won’t get a look-in. However, for all the excellence of his final round display, there were also the usual mistakes you expect from Phil. Two very lengthy par saves kept a bogey off his card, but on another day this could have been quite a different story.

Luke Donald makes his first PGA tour start of the season this week and it is for this very reason that I think he’s best watched on this occasion. His form at Riviera is very solid indeed, but having finished a miserable 48th in Abu Dhabi in his last tournament start, he needs to shake the rust off a little more before I’m going to seriously consider backing him.

Riviera may not be the hardest course on the PGA tour circuit, but it certainly commands respect, and it’s a course where shot-makers often prevail.

For most tournaments we look for a combination of good current form and decent course form in potential winners, and this rings truer than ever this week. Eight of the last nine winners here have posted a finish of 6th or better in one of their last two starts on tour, and five out of the last six winners here have finished in the top-2 at Riviera on a previous occasion.

Here are my 7 selections:

KJ Choi – KJ Choi is the first name I come to where I can’t find a good case not to back him. It may not have been the most fruitful couple of weeks for Choi in the Middle East lately, but he was making his debut in both events, so expectations wouldn’t have been high. Furthermore, there are few players who demand use of the phrase ‘horses-for-courses’ more than Choi. Essentially, Choi loves classic old-style courses. Congressional CC, Waialae CC & Muirfield Village are all courses that Choi has won on, and they all fit the same mould. Riviera clearly suits Choi’s eye. He favours a fade shot, which works nicely on the many left-to-right doglegs here, and he’s posted top-10 finishes in three of his last four starts at Riviera.

2.5pts each way 40/1 BetXchange, Ladbrokes, Voltbet, Hollywood

Kevin Na – I may be beginning to sound like a broken record with Kevin Na, but I almost rued leaving him out last week. With this being the last stroke-play tournament of the West Coast swing, I can’t bring myself to leave him out. The reason Na didn’t make it onto my list last week was due to his poor record in the event with his previous three visits to Pebble reading C-56-C. For Na to finish tied for 5th, he must be right at the top of his game right now. Getting back to the tournament in question, Na has a great record in this event with his last three starts reading 25-10-3, so he’s getting better with each visit to Riviera and is capable of improving further this week.

2.5pts each way 40/1 Sportsbet, Voltbet

Bubba Watson – There’s not many players on the PGA tour who can boast multiple victories in any season on tour, so with two victories to his name in 2011, Bubba Watson deserves respect in every event he turns up for. Watson is showing good form trajectory at the moment with his last three starts reading 18-13-5, and the latter was his best showing at the Phoenix Open to date. Bubba may be best-known for his driving distance, but, unlike his big-hitting rivals, he is in his element shaping the ball off the tee which is just the ticket at Riviera. Watson withdrew from this event last year with stomach muscle problems, but he has two top-20 finishes to his name at Riviera, and looks primed for a good showing this week.

2pts each way 40/1 Sportingbet, BetXchange, Sportsbet, Voltbet, Hollywood

Padraig Harrington – Harrington is not a player who often makes it into my previews, but I’ve been keeping an eye on his form over the last few months, and I feel a win is just around the corner for the plucky Irishman. Harrington made a great fist of his first PGA tour start of 2012 with a tie for 7th at Pebble, and his putting performance was particularly encouraging coming into another week on Poa Annua greens. Although Harrington hasn’t performed particularly well in his last three starts at Riviera, he’s got some very good historic results here including a 7th place finish in 2007 and a tie for 3rd in 2008.

2pts each way 50/1 Hollywood

Spencer Levin – California native Spencer Levin recovered very well from his final round collapse in the Phoenix Open with a top-10 finish at Pebble last week, and he is another who will be looking to make the most of the last event on his home turf before the tour heads east. Levin has one appearance to his name at Riviera which brought a more-than-respectable tie for 12th and I’m encouraged by a marked improvement in Levin’s putting in 2012. Having ranked 115th in Stokes Gained Putting in 2011, Levin now ranks inside the top-50 and as high as 7th last week on the tricky Poa Annua greens of Pebble Beach.

2pts each way 55/1 Voltbet

Bo Van Pelt – Having won in Malaysia in the 2011 off-season, Van Pelt is definitely a player to keep an eye on in 2012. Although it’s been a relatively slow start to 2012 for the 36 year-old, he finished tied for 8th in his last start at the Phoenix Open where he ranked 1st in GIR, so his ball-striking is clearly getting back to what we would expect from Van Pelt. His historic results at Riviera are something of a mixed bag, but he has notched two top-15 finishes in his last six visits, and his preferred fade shot can only help his cause this week.

1.5pts each way 66/1 Voltbet

Brendon De Jonge – Like Choi, Brendon De Jonge is a player who plays his best golf on classic old-style courses. Last year, for example, De Jonge posted top-10 finishes at Innisbrook, TPC Deere Run and The Old White TPC, so Riviera should suit De Jonge’s eye nicely. Indeed, De Jonge did post a top-10 finish here on his debut in 2009 before a respectable top-30 finish last year. This year, De Jonge comes into the event on the back of good performances at the Sony Open and Humana Challenge and he currently ranks 11th in Scoring Average.

1pt each way 90/1 BetXchange, Voltbet, Hollywood

You are most welcome to add your own picks on our discussion forum

Sam Harrop has been a golfing enthusiast most of his life and has developed an in depth knowledge of the players, tournaments and stats on the PGA Tour. He has launched a website www.golfpuntersguide.com and he has kindly made his preview available to Goodforthegame.

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